Belarus Crisis: Understanding The Geopolitical Turmoil

The Belarus crisis refers to the political and human rights crisis that has been ongoing since 2020, sparked by the reelection of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in a fraudulent presidential poll. The crisis has been marked by violent crackdowns on pro-democracy protests, arbitrary arrests, politically motivated prosecutions, surveillance, censorship, and intimidation. The European Union (EU) has accused Lukashenka of exploiting migrants and facilitating their movement towards EU borders, leading to a border crisis with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The crisis has resulted in thousands of migrants being trapped in limbo, unable to enter the EU or return to Belarus, facing harsh conditions and violence. Lukashenka's regime has also been characterized by rigged elections, restricted civil liberties, and a lack of independence in the judiciary and other institutions. The international community has largely condemned the situation, with the EU and the United States imposing sanctions on Belarus.

The role of the EU and US

The European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have played a significant role in the Belarus crisis, which began after the disputed 2020 presidential election, which saw Alexander Lukashenko claim victory. The EU and US have been critical of the Belarusian government's authoritarian practices and human rights violations, and have imposed sanctions on the country.

The Role of the EU

The EU has had a complex relationship with Belarus, initially establishing mutual relations after recognising its independence in 1991. However, the relationship deteriorated after Lukashenko became the country's leader in 1994, with the EU condemning the Belarusian government's authoritarian and anti-democratic practices. The EU has imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials, businesspeople, and state-owned companies in response to electoral fraud and the violent suppression of protests.

In 2021, the EU responded to the escalating crisis by banning Belarusian airliners from its airspace and refusing to finance protective structures on external borders. The EU has also provided financial assistance to Belarusian civil society, youth groups, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Additionally, the EU has called for humanitarian organisations to gain access to the borders to help migrants.

The Role of the US

The US has also been critical of the Belarusian government's human rights violations and has joined the EU in imposing sanctions on the country. In December 2020, the US passed the Belarus Democracy, Human Rights, and Sovereignty Act, expanding the president's authority to impose sanctions and provide assistance. The US has also introduced its own package of sanctions targeting individuals and entities that support the Lukashenko regime.

In summary, the EU and US have played a crucial role in the Belarus crisis by imposing sanctions, providing financial assistance, and calling for the protection of human rights. However, their responses have also been criticised for being slow or inadequate, and both organisations face ongoing challenges in their efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Belarus.

The impact on foreign policy

The impact of the Belarus crisis on foreign policy has been significant, with the country's relations with the European Union (EU) and its member states deteriorating. The crisis began in 2020 when Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory in the presidential election, which was widely considered rigged by European democracies and independent observers. The EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials in response to the electoral fraud and the violent suppression of subsequent protests.

In May 2021, Belarus further strained relations with the EU by intercepting a Polish commercial airplane and arresting an opposition activist and journalist on board. This incident led to additional sanctions from the US, EU, UK, and Canada, targeting members of the Belarusian government and state-owned companies. The sanctions included individual travel bans, asset freezes, and a ban on Belarusian aircraft from EU airspace.

The crisis escalated in August 2021 when the Belarusian government began coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. This was seen as a form of hybrid warfare in response to the deteriorating Belarus-EU relations. Belarus denied involvement, but independent observers and human rights organizations accused the country of manufacturing the crisis and exploiting migrants.

The EU, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia responded to the migrant crisis by increasing border patrols, declaring states of emergency, and announcing plans to build border walls. The EU also imposed further sanctions and refused to finance protective structures on the external borders. The migrant crisis led to a further deterioration of Belarus's relations with the EU and its member states, with Poland and Lithuania taking a particularly hard line.

The crisis has also impacted Belarus's relations with other countries, including the US, which sent troops to support Poland's border security. Additionally, Iraq stopped direct flights to Belarus and closed two honorary consulates in an attempt to suppress illegal migration schemes. Turkey restricted certain nationalities from buying tickets for flights to Belarus, addressing one of the main routes used by migrants.

The Belarus crisis has had a significant impact on foreign policy, leading to sanctions, increased border security, and deteriorating relations between Belarus and the EU, particularly Poland and Lithuania. The crisis has also drawn in other countries, such as the US, Iraq, and Turkey, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis along the borders, with migrants facing harsh conditions and limited access to humanitarian assistance.

The economic situation

The economic crisis has been further exacerbated by the political crisis following the disputed presidential election in 2020, in which Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory. The election sparked mass pro-democracy protests, which were met with violent crackdowns by security forces. The judiciary and other institutions lack independence, providing no check on Lukashenko's power. Tens of thousands of people have been arrested, and as many as 500,000 Belarusians have emigrated since the crackdown began.

The high-tech sector in Belarus is also worth noting. While it has been a bright spot in the economy, the ongoing crisis may lead to a brain drain as talented IT specialists relocate to other countries. The future of this sector depends on how long the crisis persists, but a prolonged stalemate could result in significant losses for Belarus.

The role of Russia

Russia's role in the Belarus crisis has been significant, with the country providing crucial support to the Lukashenko regime. Immediately following the disputed 2020 election, which resulted in mass protests, Russia was quick to offer its backing to the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko. Vladimir Putin publicly congratulated Lukashenko on his re-election, signalling his country's political support for the regime. This was an important show of loyalty, as Lukashenko had lost popular legitimacy in the eyes of many Belarusians.

Russia's interests in Belarus are twofold. Firstly, Belarus is a key transit route for Russian energy exports to the EU, with over 20% passing through the country. Secondly, Belarus is crucial to Russia's security policy. It is the shortest route to the Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian territory on the Baltic Sea, and it shares a long border with Ukraine.

Russia has long been keen to retain control over Belarus, and the 2020 crisis presented an opportunity to exert greater influence over its neighbour. During the early stages of the crisis, Russia sent journalists, reporters, and spin doctors to Belarus to help sustain pro-regime messaging and counter the pro-democracy movement. This logistical support was critical for Lukashenko's propaganda machine and helped him stay in power.

Russia also provided economic assistance, with Putin promising $1.5 billion in support during a meeting in September 2020. This financial aid was closely linked to the increased scale of repressions that followed, as Russia helped the Belarusian regime to crack down on opposition figures and strike committees.

In addition to economic and logistical support, Russia also offered military assistance. In April 2021, Belarusian and Russian counterintelligence services claimed to have defeated an alleged coup attempt, arresting three individuals and presenting it as a joint operation. According to the Belarusian opposition, this was a provocation organised by Russian and Belarusian secret services to justify further repression.

Russia's military cooperation with Belarus has continued to increase, with large-scale military exercises, such as Zapad-2021, and the establishment of a joint military training centre in the city of Hrodna, located on the border with NATO member Poland.

In the lead-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to conduct military drills on Belarusian territory, providing a launchpad for the attack. Belarus has since served as a base for aircraft and missile launches towards Ukraine, and Lukashenko has revoked the country's neutral stance and nuclear-free status, bringing it closer to Russia's orbit.

While Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly dependent on Russia, there are signs of dissent within Belarusian elites and society. Resignations and protests indicate that not all Belarusians support Russia's aggressive actions. Anti-war sentiment is strong, and some Belarusians have resisted the war in Ukraine by fleeing conscription, joining the resistance, or forming volunteer groups to assist Ukrainian fighters.

The human cost

Conditions at the Border

Since June 2021, thousands of people, mainly from Iraq but also from Syria, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and several other countries, have attempted to cross into the EU via Belarus. These migrants have endured harsh conditions, including low temperatures, insufficient access to food, water, shelter, and medical care. There have been reports of violence and inhumane treatment by border guards, with people's belongings being stolen or destroyed, and physical assaults taking place. The legal status of migrants has become more vulnerable, and they have been denied access to humanitarian assistance organisations. As of December 2021, at least 21 deaths were reported along the border areas, though the actual figure is likely higher.

Crackdown on Civil Liberties and Political Opposition

Within Belarus, the political and human rights crisis has worsened, with arbitrary arrests, politically motivated prosecutions, surveillance, censorship, and intimidation becoming commonplace. Security forces have violently assaulted and arbitrarily detained journalists, activists, and ordinary citizens who challenge the regime. Tens of thousands of people have been arrested, and as of 2022, up to 500,000 Belarusians, including most of the country's independent media and civil society workers, have emigrated. The judiciary and other institutions lack independence, providing no check on the president's power.

Impact on the IT Sector

The crisis has also impacted the Belarusian IT sector, which was once a bright spot in the country's economy. Many IT companies and professionals have relocated or are considering relocation due to the political instability and harsh conditions. This brain drain could have significant long-term consequences for the country's economic development.

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