Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia's 2030 climate change goal is to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels. This target has been rated as insufficient by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and Climate Analytics, as it falls short of the 26-28% reduction target set by the Paris Agreement and is not in line with the agreement's long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. To align with this goal, Australia needs to improve its domestic emissions reductions and financing for climate action in developing countries. Australia's Climate Change Authority is currently developing advice on the 2035 emissions reduction targets, aiming to support the country's transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 and contribute to global emissions reduction efforts.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Climate Change Goal | To achieve net zero emissions by 2050 |
| Paris Agreement Target | 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030 |
| Federal Government Projection | 22% emissions reduction by 2030 |
| Climate Analytics Report Projection | 30-38% emissions reduction by 2030 |
| Climate Council Report Projection | 75% emissions reduction by 2030 |
| Climate Action Tracker Rating | "Insufficient" |
| Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) Target | 32 GW of new clean energy capacity by 2030 |
| Renewable Electricity Target | 82% by 2030 |
| Climate Change Authority | Developing advice on 2035 emissions reduction targets |
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What You'll Learn
Australia's 2030 emissions reduction target
Despite the insufficient federal efforts, individual states have taken the lead in climate action. The analysis suggests that emissions are expected to be reduced by 30-38% by 2030 due to the initiatives implemented by state governments. These include increasing renewable energy sources, implementing electric vehicle policies, and addressing land clearance issues. The early closure of coal plants in Victoria and New South Wales will also contribute significantly to lowering emissions.
To improve its climate performance, Australia should focus on reducing domestic emissions and decreasing its reliance on offsetting and emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). The government's continued support for the fossil fuel industry and lack of commitment to phasing out coal and fossil gas are misaligned with the country's emissions reduction targets and the Paris Agreement. Australia should adopt more ambitious policies and accelerate its transition to renewable energy to demonstrate its dedication to combating climate change.
Furthermore, Australia has the potential to become a leader in renewable technologies and clean industries. By leveraging its natural resources, technology, and skills, the country can create economic opportunities and export its solutions to accelerate progress globally. Australia's actions in the coming years will be crucial in stabilizing the climate system and minimizing the risks of catastrophic impacts. The country must act swiftly and decisively to protect its communities, unique ecosystems, and wildlife, while also seizing the economic benefits of a decarbonized economy.
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Climate Action Tracker rating
Australia's 2030 climate change goal is to reduce emissions by 43% from 2005 levels. The country plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Australia's climate targets, policies, and finance as "Insufficient". This indicates that substantial improvements are needed for Australia's climate policies and commitments to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature limit.
To improve its rating, Australia must take several actions:
- Set more ambitious 2030 targets for emissions reductions: Australia's current targets fall short of its commitments under the Paris Agreement, and more ambitious targets are needed to demonstrate a commitment to global climate change mitigation efforts.
- Establish policies to achieve its objectives: While Australia has introduced some promising policies, such as the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the National Hydrogen Strategy, there is a lack of federal-level plans and committed timelines for the phase-out of coal and fossil gas. Australia needs to implement holistic transport policies and address policy gaps in the agricultural, buildings, and waste sectors.
- Provide finance to support climate action in developing countries: Australia's climate finance contributions are considered low and not in line with a fair approach. Experts demand a significant increase in Australia's contribution to multilateral climate funds to align with its fair share based on GDP and historical emissions.
The CAT rating highlights the need for Australia to accelerate its climate action and ensure its policies and targets are consistent with the global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. While there have been some positive developments, Australia's continued support for the fossil fuel industry and reliance on offsets and land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) emissions reductions are misaligned with the Paris Agreement's goals.
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Paris Agreement compatibility
Australia is a party to the Paris Agreement, which came into force in 2016. The agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.
Under the Paris Agreement, Australia must submit emissions reduction commitments known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Australia submitted its first NDC in 2015 and an updated version in 2022. The 2022 update commits Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. This target is higher than the previous projection of a 22% reduction by 2030, which fell short of the Paris Agreement's target of a 26-28% reduction.
However, Australia's current policies are not sufficient to meet even the updated target. The government is relying heavily on the LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) sector to reach its climate goals, with LULUCF historical and projected sequestration revised significantly upwards in recent years. At the same time, the government continues to support the fossil fuel industry, with plans for new coal mine projects and support for oil and gas production until 2050 and beyond. This support is based on false solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and offsets, rather than a transition to renewable energy.
To align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal, Australia needs to adopt more ambitious climate policies. This includes decreasing its reliance on offsetting and LULUCF emissions, stopping support for the fossil fuel industry, and setting more ambitious targets for emissions reductions. Australia's next NDC submission is due in 2025, and it is expected to include 2035 targets that are compatible with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. The Climate Change Authority is currently developing advice on these targets, taking into account the social, economic, and environmental impacts of climate change and Australia's role in global emissions reduction efforts.
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Electric vehicle rollout
Australia's climate change goal by 2030 is to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels. This was submitted as part of its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement in 2022. However, it is projected that without additional measures, emissions will only be reduced by 17-22% by 2030, falling short of its target.
One key sector that can contribute to Australia's climate goals is the transport sector, specifically the rollout of electric vehicles (EVs). Australia has been lagging behind most OECD countries in EV adoption, with only 3.8% of new vehicle sales in 2022 being EVs, compared to a global average of 9%.
To address this, the Federal Government released Australia's first National Electric Vehicle Strategy in April 2023. This strategy aims to increase the uptake of EVs to reduce emissions and improve the wellbeing of Australians. It includes plans to introduce a national Fuel Efficiency Standard, which will require car manufacturers to keep carbon emissions below a certain level or face penalties. This is expected to encourage the sale of more EVs or fuel-efficient vehicles.
The strategy also reaffirms the government's commitment to building the National EV Charging Network, with charging infrastructure at 117 sites on major highways. This is important as limited charging infrastructure has been a contributing factor to low EV uptake. Additionally, the strategy mentions the electric car discount, the Australian Made Battery Plan, and plans to upgrade EV charging infrastructure.
However, the strategy has been criticized for not setting new targets to accelerate the transition to EVs and for lacking incentives to help consumers with the cost of EVs. As a result, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in EV uptake in the short term.
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Renewable energy investment
Australia's 2030 climate change goal includes reducing emissions by 43% below 2005 levels. However, the government's continued support for the fossil fuel industry and approval of new coal mine projects are misaligned with these goals.
Now, let's discuss renewable energy investment in more detail:
The Australian government has implemented several initiatives to promote renewable energy investment and achieve its climate goals. One key initiative is the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS). The CIS aims to accelerate investment in renewable energy generation and clean dispatchable capacity, such as wind, solar, and battery storage. The scheme provides a financial safety net for investors, reducing the risks associated with funding renewable energy projects. The Australian government seeks competitive bids for underwriting contracts, supporting renewable generation projects. The expanded CIS targets 32 GW of new clean energy capacity by 2030, with 23 GW from variable renewable sources.
While the CIS demonstrates the government's commitment to its 82% renewable electricity target for 2030, investment in large-scale renewable energy projects decreased in 2023 compared to 2022. The government is also supporting the domestic wholesale gas market with additional funding of $41.9 million over four years, which may prolong the country's reliance on fossil fuels.
To further encourage renewable energy investment, the government has introduced the Powering Australia plan, which includes various initiatives. One initiative is the National Reconstruction Fund, which includes funding of up to $3 billion to support renewables and low emissions technologies. The government is also investing in the offshore energy industry ($145 million) and providing funding for the Community Solar Banks initiative ($102.2 million over four years) to increase energy resilience.
Additionally, the government is addressing barriers to renewable energy projects through Renewable Energy Transformation Agreements (RETAs). These agreements are negotiated with individual states and territories to address their unique needs in the energy transition.
Despite these efforts, Australia's investment in renewable energy sources and transition services, such as hydroelectric power and batteries, needs to increase to align with its 2030 climate goals. The government's current policies are projected to reduce emissions by 17-22% below 2005 levels by 2030, falling short of its Paris Agreement target of 26-28%.
In conclusion, while Australia has implemented initiatives to promote renewable energy investment, more aggressive action and investment are required to achieve its 2030 climate change goals and transition to a low-carbon economy.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's 2030 climate change goal is to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels.
Australia's government has implemented several policies to achieve this goal, including the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), which aims to deliver 32 GW of new clean energy capacity by 2030, and the Future Made in Australia plan. However, Australia has been criticized for a lack of commitment to phasing out coal and fossil gas and for supporting the fossil fuel industry.
Australia's progress towards its 2030 climate change goal is disputed. While the government projected a 22% reduction in emissions by 2030 in 2020, it is anticipated that they will soon announce an increase in projected emissions reductions. Australia's Climate Action Tracker rates the country's progress as "insufficient," stating that it needs substantial improvements to align with the Paris Agreement's goals.
