Azerbaijan's Future: A Bleak Fate Or Hope?

Azerbaijan is a transcontinental country in the South Caucasus region, with a history dating back to ancient times. The country has faced numerous conflicts and changes in power over the centuries, with its territory previously ruled by various empires, including the Persians, Russians, and Soviets. Today, it is an independent republic with a semi-presidential system, but its politics are heavily influenced by the Aliyev family, who have been in power since 1993.

Azerbaijan has been criticised for its human rights record, with reports of civil society groups and ethnic minorities being targeted and allegations of election fraud. The country has also been at the centre of one of the world's longest-running conflicts with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has resulted in significant territorial disputes and displacement of people.

Despite these challenges, Azerbaijan has made strides in economic development, particularly in the oil and gas industry, and has improved its environmental protection efforts. However, the country continues to face social and political unrest, with calls for democratic reforms and protests against the Aliyev regime.

Azerbaijan's human rights record

US lawmakers have also urged the US Secretary of State to push for the release of political prisoners in Azerbaijan, citing a State Department report that found "significant human rights issues", including arbitrary detentions and unlawful killings.

Azerbaijan's government has denied these allegations, stating that it is handling the cases appropriately and that it is the "victim of an orchestrated disinformation campaign".

The country's human rights record has been a cause for concern for several years. The ruling New Azerbaijan Party, in power since 1993, has been accused of worsening the situation, with increasing restrictions on civil liberties, particularly press freedom and political repression.

Azerbaijan's constitution guarantees freedom of speech, but this is denied in practice. Foreign broadcasts are banned, and the country ranks low on press freedom indices. Discrimination against LGBT people is also widespread.

In recent years, journalists have been killed, and several have been prosecuted in what international human rights organisations have described as unfair trials. Amnesty International has reported a "severe deterioration of human rights" in the country, with persecution of political dissent and a crackdown on independent journalists and activists.

Azerbaijan was also accused of bribing foreign officials and journalists to promote its interests and legitimise its elections through a practice known as "caviar diplomacy".

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023. The region was internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The war resulted in the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia. There were expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and the Armenian-controlled areas. A ceasefire was signed in 1994 in Bishkek, followed by two decades of relative stability.

In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

In December 2022, Azerbaijan launched a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, citing concerns of illegal mining. This resulted in severe shortages of food, medicine, and other essential supplies for the residents of the region.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the flight of almost the entire ethnic Armenian population of the region to Armenia. The Republic of Artsakh was officially dissolved on 1 January 2024, and efforts are now underway to normalise relations and reach a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been the longest-running conflict in post-Soviet Eurasia, with tensions and intermittent clashes persisting for decades. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, displacement, and human rights abuses on both sides.

Azerbaijan's role in the international community

Azerbaijan has diplomatic relations with 158 countries and holds membership in 38 international organisations, including the United Nations, the Council of Europe, the Non-Aligned Movement, the OSCE, and the NATO PfP program. It is one of the founding members of GUAM, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the OPCW.

Azerbaijan is also an observer state of the World Trade Organization and was elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2011. The country is an active member of international coalitions fighting international terrorism and was one of the first countries to offer support after the September 11 attacks. Azerbaijan is also a member of the Council of Europe and maintains good relations with the European Union, with the country potentially applying for EU membership in the future.

Azerbaijan has been criticised for its human rights record, with Human Rights Watch and Freedom Now reporting an "escalating crackdown" on government critics and activists. The country has also been accused of bribing foreign officials and diplomats to promote its causes abroad and legitimise its elections at home, a practice termed "caviar diplomacy".

Despite the criticism, Azerbaijan was selected to host the 2024 United Nations climate talks, which the country's embassy in Washington said demonstrated that Azerbaijan is "a responsible and credible member of the international community".

Azerbaijan's military and defence industry

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces consist of three branches: the Land Forces, the Air and Air Defence Force, and the Navy. The Land Forces number 85,000 strong, according to UK Advanced Research and Assessment Group estimates. The Air and Air Defence Force has about 8,000 men and 106 aircraft and 35 helicopters. The Navy has about 2,200 personnel. There are also associated forces, including the National Guard, Internal Troops, and the State Border Service, which can be involved in state defence under certain circumstances.

The Azerbaijani military has been trying to develop into a professional, well-trained, and mobile force. The country has been undergoing extensive modernisation and capacity-expanding programs, and the military hardware includes 220 main battle tanks, 595 armoured combat vehicles, 270 artillery systems, and various missile and radar systems.

Azerbaijan has signed numerous contracts to strengthen its armed forces and has been preparing for possible action against Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. The country has a desire to become a major arms exporter to the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Middle East, and it has been in talks with various countries, including Israel, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, and Pakistan, for the production of military equipment.

The defence industry in Azerbaijan is directed by the Ministry of Defence Industry, which was established in 2005. The ministry supervises the design, manufacturing, and maintenance of military equipment, and it has been cooperating with defence sectors in several countries. Azerbaijani military production more than doubled between 2009 and 2010, and the product line expanded by 17%. The country manufactures a range of military equipment, including rifles, pistols, grenade launchers, armoured vehicles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The Azerbaijani military has been accused of committing war crimes and human rights abuses, particularly during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the 2023 offensive against the breakaway Republic of Artsakh. There have also been reports of non-combat deaths and systemic corruption within the armed forces.

Azerbaijan's political system

Azerbaijan is a unitary semi-presidential republic with a political system that is nominally divided into three branches: the executive, the legislative, and the judicial. However, in practice, the country is dominated by an authoritarian regime led by the Aliyev family and the New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).

The executive branch is headed by the President, who is both the head of state and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The President is elected by an absolute majority vote through a two-round system for a seven-year term. The President has the power to form the Cabinet, an inferior executive body that includes the Prime Minister and his deputies. The President also has the right to veto decisions made by the National Assembly.

The legislative branch is vested in the unicameral National Assembly, which consists of 125 members elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies. Parliamentary elections are held every five years, on the first Sunday of November. The National Assembly is responsible for creating laws and approving the Cabinet of Ministers.

The judicial power is administered by the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, and the Economic Court. The President nominates the judges in these courts.

While Azerbaijan's political system provides for a separation of powers, in practice, the executive branch firmly controls the legislative and judicial institutions. Elections are often marred by fraud and other unfair practices, and the country is classified as "not free" by Freedom House.

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