The Enduring Conflict: Afghanistan's Prolonged Battle For Stability

The war in Afghanistan has ended, but the country is still facing instability and humanitarian crises. The last American troops left Kabul on 30 August 2021, marking the end of a 20-year campaign. However, the country is now under Taliban rule, and the gains in liberal and democratic rights and freedoms over the last two decades have regressed. Girls are once again barred from secondary schools, and women's rights have been restricted. The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is dire, with Afghans suffering from food shortages, economic collapse, and a lack of international assistance due to sanctions and the termination of development aid.

The Taliban's resurgence

Support from Pakistan: Pakistan has long been accused of providing support and safe havens to the Taliban, even as it maintained diplomatic relations with the US. Pakistan's security establishment cheered the Taliban's military gains, as they saw the group as a strategic ally in their competition with India. However, some critics argue that Pakistan's support for the Taliban could ultimately backfire, leading to increased extremism at home and international isolation.

Failure of Nation-Building Efforts: Despite significant progress in areas such as education, women's rights, and healthcare under the NATO-backed government, fatal flaws persisted. The Taliban recast themselves as an anti-colonial liberation movement, tapping into growing resentment towards Western intervention. Additionally, corruption and venality within the Afghan government discredited the nation-building project.

Withdrawal of US and NATO Troops: The decision to withdraw US and NATO troops left the Afghan security forces ill-prepared and heavily reliant on US assistance for ground operations and air support. The Taliban took advantage of the reduced military presence to launch attacks on rural districts and carry out suicide bombings in major cities, quickly seizing territory and ultimately capturing Kabul.

Negotiations and Peace Deals: Negotiations between the US and the Taliban, including the Doha Agreement, were intended to pave the way for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. However, the Taliban often used these negotiations as a stalling tactic, quickly resuming attacks after brief periods of reduced violence. Additionally, the release of Taliban prisoners as part of these deals strengthened the group's forces.

Regional Dynamics: Afghanistan's location in a volatile region, with competing interests from countries like India, Pakistan, China, and Iran, has complicated the situation. The Taliban has leveraged these regional rivalries to its advantage, playing off competing interests to secure support and maintain its influence.

The resurgence of the Taliban has had severe consequences, leading to a rollback of human rights, particularly for women and girls, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.

The US-Taliban peace deal

On February 29, 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal in Doha, Qatar, which was aimed at ending the eighteen-year war in Afghanistan. The deal was signed by US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. The agreement addresses four main issues:

• Ceasefire: Negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting ceasefire among US, Taliban, and Afghan forces would be part of intra-Afghan negotiations.
• Withdrawal of foreign forces: The US agreed to reduce its troops in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. If the Taliban followed through on its commitments, all US and other foreign troops would leave Afghanistan within fourteen months.
• Intra-Afghan negotiations: The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020.
• Counterterrorism assurances: The Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the US and its allies.

The agreement is only the first step to achieving lasting peace. The bigger challenge is negotiating an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government on Afghanistan's future. The peace process is supported by a vast majority of Afghans, but many issues remain to be worked out during intra-Afghan negotiations, including sharing power, disarming and reintegrating Taliban fighters into society, and determining the future of the country's democratic institutions and constitution.

The US-Taliban deal did not specify the reduction of violence as a requirement, and the Taliban intensified attacks on military and civilian targets as a bargaining tactic. The intra-Afghan talks started six months later than scheduled due to a rift between the Afghan government and the Taliban over the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners.

The US-Taliban deal was not expected to bring immediate peace to Afghanistan. The Taliban continued to carry out attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians, and there was no official ceasefire in place. The deal was also criticised for not including the Afghan government in the negotiations. Many experts were skeptical of the Taliban's sincerity in upholding the agreement, and some believed that the deal was a face-saving device for the Trump administration or an election gimmick to win over Trump's voter base.

Despite the challenges, the US-Taliban peace deal was a significant step towards ending the war in Afghanistan. It provided a framework for the withdrawal of US and foreign troops and paved the way for intra-Afghan negotiations. However, the success of the peace process depended on the Taliban's commitment to upholding their promises and the ability of the Afghan government and the Taliban to reach a lasting agreement.

The Doha Agreement

The agreement was aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan and stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban. It provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The US agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban kept its commitments. The United States also committed to closing five military bases within 135 days and ending economic sanctions on the Taliban by 27 August 2020.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were scheduled to begin on 10 March 2020 in Oslo, Norway. The deal required the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the start of the talks, in exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban. However, the Afghan government was not a party to the US-Taliban deal, and on 1 March, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani rejected a prisoner exchange.

Despite the prisoner exchange dispute, negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban for the release of prisoners began as planned on 10 March 2020. On the same day, Ghani signed a decree for the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners on 14 March, but only if they agreed to sign pledges guaranteeing they would not return to battle. On 31 March, a three-person Taliban delegation arrived in Kabul to discuss the release of prisoners—they were the first Taliban representatives to visit Kabul since 2001.

The US-Taliban deal also dealt with the withdrawal of "all military forces of the United States, its allies, and Coalition partners". The Trump administration agreed to an initial reduction of US troops in Afghanistan from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban kept its commitments.

The Afghan government's collapse

The collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021 was the culmination of a series of events that began with the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. Here is an overview of the factors that led to the collapse of the Afghan government:

The US-Taliban Peace Deal

The US-Taliban peace deal, also known as the Doha Agreement, was signed on February 29, 2020, between the US and the Taliban. The deal outlined a timeline for the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, with the US pledging to reduce its troop presence to 8,500 within 135 days and complete a full withdrawal within 14 months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government. However, no official ceasefire was put in place, and the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. The deal significantly reduced US air support for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), depriving them of a critical advantage in fighting the Taliban insurgency.

The Taliban Offensive

Beginning in May 2021, the Taliban launched a major offensive across Afghanistan, capturing most of the country's provinces in rapid succession. The offensive coincided with the withdrawal of US and NATO troops, and the Afghan National Security Forces struggled to counter the Taliban's advance. By August, the Taliban had captured all but two of Afghanistan's provincial capitals and seized control of border crossings, encircling the capital city of Kabul.

The Fall of Kabul

On August 15, 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul and captured the presidential palace, with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country. The Taliban faced little to no resistance from the Afghan security forces, and the city fell within a matter of hours. The collapse of the Afghan government led to a rush of civilians towards the Kabul airport, which remained under NATO and US military control, as people sought to evacuate the country. The evacuation effort was the largest non-combatant evacuation operation in US military history, with over 123,000 people evacuated from Afghanistan.

Failure of US Policy and Strategy

The collapse of the Afghan government was also a result of failures in US policy and strategy over two decades. The US had invested over $85 billion in training and equipping the Afghan security forces, but these forces proved inept and inadequate in countering the Taliban insurgency. There was a lack of effective civil-level strategies to support the development of a competent and honest Afghan government, and the US was unable to provide objective assessments of the situation on the ground. Additionally, the US-Taliban peace deal further weakened the Afghan government's position and bolstered the Taliban.

Taliban's Strategy and Propaganda

The Taliban's effective strategy and use of propaganda also contributed to the collapse. They targeted local police and military units with propaganda, convincing them that the US had already handed over territories and that they should abandon their positions. The Taliban's rapid offensive and the fall of cities one after another created a sense of inevitability and fear among Afghan security forces and government officials, leading to surrenders and negotiations instead of resistance.

Afghan Government's Failure

The Afghan government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, also bore significant responsibility for the collapse. Ghani's government was plagued by corruption, and it failed to unite the country and build a competent and effective administration. Ghani's sudden flight from the country further demoralized the security forces and left a leadership vacuum, making it easier for the Taliban to seize control.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with two-thirds of its population in need of humanitarian and protection assistance. This equates to around 28.3 million people, including women and girls, who are facing acute hunger and starvation. The crisis is exacerbated by ongoing food insecurity, natural disasters, drought, and COVID-19.

The country's economy was already deteriorating before the Taliban seized control in August 2021, but the situation worsened significantly following the takeover. International assistance was paused or cut back, the country's central bank was isolated from the international banking system, and the US froze billions of dollars in Afghan reserves. As a result, the economy fell into a steep decline, causing increased poverty and food insecurity. By the end of 2022, it was estimated that around 34 million Afghans were living in poverty, an increase of 15 million from 2020.

The Taliban's restrictive policies, particularly those targeting women and girls, have also severely impacted the humanitarian crisis. Women and girls have been banned from secondary and higher education and have been forced out of jobs. They are not allowed to participate in political or public life and cannot move around without a male chaperone. These restrictions have hindered women's and girls' ability to access humanitarian services and increased their protection risks. Studies indicate that 87% of Afghan women have experienced at least one form of physical, sexual, or psychological violence, and 62% have experienced multiple forms.

The humanitarian response has struggled to keep pace with the worsening conditions. More than 15 million people are experiencing acute food insecurity, and almost 60% of households face barriers to accessing safe water. Cholera and other diseases pose significant threats. Additionally, 22 million people require protection assistance, and 8.7 million children need education support.

The international community's declining commitment to Afghanistan has further exacerbated the crisis. Development assistance has been suspended or reduced, and humanitarian funding remains inadequate. While some humanitarian assistance continues, the UN's request is less than 30% funded. The combination of political and environmental factors has deepened humanitarian needs over the past two years.

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