Leslie Massey
Australia's climate varies across its eight states and territories, with four seasons across most of the country and a wet and dry season in the tropical north. In recent years, the country has experienced record-breaking rainfall, flooding, and unusually hot temperatures. In 2025, parts of Australia experienced an unusually late May deluge, and in July, there was a forecast of a weak signal for rainfall in the southeast and Western Australia. With full rivers and catchments, locals are warned that more rain could trigger a swift response. So, is rain coming to Australia?
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date of Information | 2nd November 2019 |
| Areas Affected by Rain | South-east Australia, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales |
| Amount of Rainfall | 10-40mm on Saturday, intensifying on Sunday to 15-35mm, up to 100mm in some areas |
| Impact | Not drought-breaking, but causing flash floods in some areas |
| Outlook | Below-average rainfall from November to January, above-average temperatures |
| Water Temperature | Warmer than average across Australia, up to 3°C warmer in the southwest |
| Climate | Four seasons across most of the country, wet and dry seasons in the tropical north |
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What You'll Learn
Rainfall in New South Wales
As of July 2025, Australia has been experiencing unusually hot temperatures, with some regions facing warnings of flash floods and rising floodwaters. Parts of the country are predicted to receive a month's worth of rain in the coming week, with up to 100 millimetres of rainfall expected.
New South Wales (NSW) has been particularly affected by heavy rainfall and flooding. In May 2025, unrelenting rainfall caused flash flooding and chaos in Sydney, with some areas forced to evacuate. The clean-up continued from the devastating NSW floods, with forecasters warning of potential road closures.
In March 2025, Tropical Cyclone Alfred caused extensive damage in parts of the Gold Coast and Scenic Rim, resulting in high floodwaters. The cyclone also impacted the Richmond River in Ballina, NSW, leading to a likely "blackwater" event with many dead or dying fish.
Looking back to November 2019, rain was predicted for southeast Australia, including New South Wales. While it was not expected to break the drought, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasted 10 to 40 millimetres of rain for Saturday, particularly in western parts of NSW. Ms. Diana Eadie, a meteorologist with BOM, stated that rainfall would intensify on Sunday, with the possibility of up to 100 millimetres of rain in isolated locations.
As of July 4, 2025, the forecast for New South Wales shows a mix of weather conditions. The northeast is expected to be mostly sunny and cool-to-cold, while the southeast will experience showers and cold temperatures. The Alps will be windy with snow, and the northwest is forecasted to be sunny and cold.
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Queensland rain and flooding
Queensland has experienced significant flooding in 2025, with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology comparing the rainfall totals to cyclonic conditions. The flooding has resulted in at least two fatalities directly from flooding, 31 fatalities from a subsequent disease outbreak, and prompted mass evacuation orders in Queensland's coastal regions. The floods have also caused major disruptions to essential services, with more than 8,000 homes losing power and major transport routes being cut off.
The flooding in Queensland was caused by a lingering low-pressure trough topped up by rain from ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which brought a phenomenal amount of water to outback towns and cities. The downpour inundated homes, cut off access to communities, and caused stock losses of over 150,000. The resulting floods filled dryland rivers and expanded across wide, flat plains, reaching areas that had not been inundated in European memory.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that some areas received more than 1,000 millimetres of precipitation, with Paluma recording 175 mm of rainfall within a three-hour period. Severe thunderstorms produced additional intense rainfall in the Herbert and Lower Burdekin regions, with Paradise Lagoon recording 164 mm of rainfall in three hours. The flooding was particularly severe in the Shire of Hinchinbrook, a coastal locality of approximately 11,000 residents located 1,500 kilometres north of Brisbane.
The impact of the flooding extended beyond Queensland, with inland floodwaters expected to take weeks or even months to move downstream into South Australia, towards Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre. The enormous body of water surpassed the 1974 event, widely considered the largest flood in Queensland history. The Paroo, Bulloo, Cooper, and Thomson catchments recorded their biggest floods in 50 years.
While flooding in northern Australia during the wet season is not uncommon, it is unusual to see multiple exceptional flooding events. The Bureau of Meteorology warned that any more rain would trigger a swift response, as rivers and catchments were already full.
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Climate in Victoria, Australia
The climate in Victoria, Australia, varies from region to region. Melbourne, for example, has a variable climate, with warm to hot summers, mild autumns, chilly winters, and cool springs. The hottest months in Melbourne are January and February, which are often dry, with hot spells and cooling afternoon breezes. June and July are the coldest months, and October is the wettest. Melbourne's annual average rainfall is around 649 mm.
The climate in the rest of Victoria also differs. The Mallee region in the northwest of Victoria experiences hot summers, with temperatures rising to a mean high of 90 °F (32 °C) in January. Winters in this region are much cooler, with a mean temperature of 59 °F (15 °C) in July. The annual rainfall in the Wimmera region of the Mallee ranges from about 12 inches (300 mm) in the far north to 22 inches (550 mm) at higher elevations.
The weather in Victoria is largely determined by the passage of anticyclones (high-pressure areas) and depressions. During the winter, the track of these disturbances lies overland, bringing more rain. In contrast, during the summer, a more southerly oceanic course reduces the frequency of rainy days. An exception to this pattern is East Gippsland, where most of the rainfall results from intense depressions centred east of Bass Strait in the summer.
Inland Victoria receives most of its rain from eastward-moving frontal systems that cross the Southern Ocean. Thunderstorms are another important source of rainfall, particularly during spring and summer. However, rainfall from thunderstorms can be very localised. The Murray and Goulburn Rivers provide vital water supplementation for agriculture and horticulture in the dry north and northwest regions of Victoria.
There have been some minor changes in Victoria's climate over the past 140 years. While the overall weather patterns are expected to remain relatively consistent, there may be some minor variations in the future. According to the Australian climate outlook for July 2025, there is an increased chance of below-average rainfall for western Tasmania and parts of the south-east mainland, including Victoria. Additionally, above-average maximum temperatures are likely across much of Australia, except in central inland areas, where there is an equal chance of above or below-average temperatures.
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Australian Capital Cities weather
Australia's climate varies across its eight states and territories, with four seasons across most of the country and a wet and dry season in the tropical north. The seasons are the opposite of those in the northern hemisphere, with December to February being summer, March to May autumn, June to August winter, and September to November spring.
In July 2025, parts of Australia were warned that any more rain would trigger a swift response, as rivers and catchments were already full. This came after a period of unusually hot temperatures throughout autumn, with parts of the state receiving a month's worth of rain in just one week.
In March 2025, unrelenting rainfall caused flash flooding and chaos across Sydney, with other areas of New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland also affected.
In November 2019, rain was forecast for southeast Australia, with Tasmania, Victoria, and NSW expected to be the most impacted. However, this was not expected to be drought-breaking rain, and the outlook for the following months was not good, with most of the country predicted to experience below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures.
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Tropical cyclones in Australia
Australia experiences around 11 cyclones per year during the tropical cyclone season, which usually lasts from November to April. However, only about four to five of these cyclones make landfall. The Australian Climate Service and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) work together to analyse data and make informed decisions regarding natural disaster risks, including tropical cyclones.
While the long-term trend in the number of tropical cyclones in Australia is downward, the intensity of individual cyclones is projected to increase. This means that while there may be fewer cyclones in the future, the ones that do occur are expected to be stronger and cause more damage. This is due to the combination of cyclones and other low-pressure systems, which can lead to larger oceanic storm surges and more coastal flooding, even without an increase in the height of storm surges above mean sea level.
The impact of tropical cyclones in Australia varies. For example, in March 2025, Tropical Cyclone Alfred caused severe damage in parts of the Gold Coast and surrounding areas, leading to what Energex described as "network replacement" rather than repair. In May 2025, flash flooding and chaos were reported in Sydney due to unrelenting rainfall. More than 1100 buildings were deemed uninhabitable, and forecasters warned of potential road closures due to the floods.
The distribution of rainfall within a storm system can be uneven, and thunderstorms can produce patchy rainfall. Meteorologists play a crucial role in predicting and understanding the behaviour of tropical cyclones and their associated rainfall patterns. They provide valuable information to the public, such as the intensity and duration of rainfall, and whether it will be drought-breaking.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, rain is on the forecast for parts of Australia. However, it is unlikely to be drought-breaking.
Rain is expected in Tasmania, much of Victoria, and New South Wales. There is also a weak forecast for south-east Australia and Western Australia.
There is no fixed pattern for rainfall in Australia. While some parts of the country are experiencing flooding due to heavy rainfall, others are facing unusually hot temperatures.
Australia's seasons are at opposite times to those in the northern hemisphere. December to February is summer; March to May is autumn; June to August is winter; and September to November is spring.
