Bolivia's Civil Unrest: War Or Not?

Bolivia has a history of civil conflict, with the country experiencing a civil war from 1898 to 1899. More recently, in 2005, then-president Carlos Mesa warned of the possibility of civil war unless early elections were held. In 2019, Bolivia experienced a US-backed military coup, and the country has since been plagued by continuous demonstrations and protest-related violence. The current political situation in Bolivia remains tense, with concerns about a potential “second coup” and ongoing calls for a democratic resolution to the country's deep divisions.

Is there an ongoing civil war in Bolivia?

There is no evidence of an ongoing civil war in Bolivia. However, the country has a history of political instability and civil strife, with some observers warning of the potential for civil war in the future.

Bolivia experienced a civil war from 1898 to 1899, known as the Bolivian Civil War or the Federal War (Guerra Federal in Spanish). This conflict arose from political divisions between conservative and liberal factions, with the latter ultimately winning and bringing about a period of political change known as the federal revolution.

In more recent times, Bolivia has faced periods of unrest and political turmoil. In 2005, outgoing President Carlos Mesa warned of the possibility of civil war unless early elections were held. Protests by indigenous miners, farmers, and others had brought the capital and other parts of the country to a standstill, with demands to renationalise Bolivia's energy resources and redraft the constitution.

In 2019, there were mass demonstrations and violent clashes following the overthrow of elected president Evo Morales in a US-backed military coup. Jeanine Áñez's self-proclaimed government faced continuous protests by workers and peasants, with at least 23 people killed and 230 wounded in two brutal episodes of military repression.

In 2020, President Luis Arce took office, but his administration has been criticised for failing to spur justice reform and address issues such as violence against women and girls, prison overcrowding, and obstacles faced by indigenous communities in exercising their rights.

While there is no current civil war in Bolivia, the country continues to face political and social challenges, with a polarised society and ongoing tensions between different factions.

What is the cause of the conflict?

There is no evidence to suggest that Bolivia is currently in a civil war. However, there have been warnings of a potential civil war in the country. In 2005, outgoing president Carlos Mesa warned that Bolivia could slide into civil war unless early elections were held. This was in response to crippling protests that had brought the capital and other parts of the country to a standstill. Protesters demanded the renationalisation of Bolivia's energy resources and a redrafting of the constitution.

More recently, in 2019, there were mass demonstrations by workers and peasants throughout the country in opposition to the coup that overthrew elected president Evo Morales. These protests were violently repressed by military forces and fascist gangs, resulting in at least 23 deaths and 230 injuries. The protests resumed in 2020 due to the regime's incompetent and violent response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its postponement of elections.

The conflict in Bolivia has been characterised by political interference in the justice system, protest-related violence and abuses, and a lack of accountability for human rights violations. There have been reports of violence, illegal detentions, sexual violence, and torture by security forces, particularly targeting Indigenous communities.

The causes of the conflict in Bolivia are complex and multifaceted. They include political divisions, economic inequalities, and social injustices. There are deep political divisions between supporters of former president Evo Morales and those who oppose him. Additionally, Bolivia is South America's poorest country, with two-thirds of its population living in poverty, despite its natural gas supplies. This has led to demands for the renationalisation of energy resources and a more equitable distribution of wealth.

Furthermore, Indigenous communities in Bolivia face obstacles in exercising their rights, including the right to free, prior, and informed consent on development projects. They also face discrimination, violence, and a lack of access to justice. These social injustices have contributed to the tensions and divisions within the country.

What is the international community's response?

The international community's response to the 2019 Bolivian political crisis has been mixed. While some have described the event as a coup, others have characterised it as a popular uprising.

International Organisations

The Organization of American States (OAS) released a report detailing significant irregularities during the electoral process, which led to the resignation of President Evo Morales. The OAS alleged multiple irregularities, including failures in the chain of custody for ballots, alteration and forgery of electoral material, and data manipulation.

The European Union also released a report with similar findings and conclusions as the OAS.

The United Nations (UN) has been involved in addressing the political crisis in Bolivia. In November 2019, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Jean Arnault as his personal envoy to support efforts to find a peaceful resolution. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concern about the disproportionate use of force by the army and police during the protests.

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) has also played a role in monitoring and responding to the situation. It has condemned the Bolivian government for issuing a decree exempting the military from criminal responsibility for killing or injuring protestors.

In August 2021, the human rights watchdog of the OAS published a report on human rights violations during the interim government of Jeanine Áñez. It documented the persecution of opponents with "systematic torture" and "summary executions".

Foreign Governments

Foreign governments have also responded to the situation in Bolivia. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales, which he accepted.

In July 2021, the Bolivian government accused the Argentinian government of Mauricio Macri of supplying arms used in the Senkata and Sacaba massacres. The Ecuadorian government of Lenin Moreno offered military aid to Bolivia during this period.

In January 2020, the interim government suspended relations with Cuba in response to remarks made by the Cuban Foreign Minister, who called Áñez a "liar" and a "coupist".

Non-Governmental Organisations

Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have also been active in responding to the situation in Bolivia. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has monitored and reported on human rights violations, including protest-related violence and abuses, judicial independence, and detention conditions.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a left-leaning US think tank, disputed the OAS's preliminary findings of electoral fraud, criticising the "politicisation of the electoral observation process".

The World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) has characterised the situation as a "US-backed military coup" and has reported on the "fascistic agitation" of the Áñez government and its supporters.

Media

The international media has also covered the events in Bolivia, with outlets such as the New York Times, the Guardian, and the Wall Street Journal providing analysis and commentary on the political crisis.

What is the historical context?

Bolivia has a long history of civil unrest and political upheaval. The country's struggle for independence from Spanish rule in the 1800s was followed by a series of wars and conflicts throughout the 19th and 20th centuries.

The Bolivian Civil War, also known as the Federal War, took place from 1898 to 1899. The conflict was between two factions: the conservative side, supported by the country's political, economic, and religious elite, and the liberal faction, which was opposed to the state's policies and aimed to transform Bolivia into a federation with support from the peasantry, indigenous peoples, and small Catholic businesses. The liberals ultimately won the conflict, ending decades of political rule by the Bolivian conservatives and leading to a period of political change known as the federal revolution. However, the new government fell short of the expectations of the rural and indigenous communities, leading to further unrest.

The 20th century saw continued political instability in Bolivia, with a series of coups and short-lived constitutions. The Bolivian National Revolution of the 1950s attempted to address issues such as nationalization of resources and expansion of suffrage, but the country fell under military rule and experienced a succession of coups until a transition to democratic government in the 1980s.

In the 21st century, Bolivian politics was dominated by Evo Morales until his resignation in 2019 amid a political crisis. The country faced further turmoil with the self-proclaimed government of Jeanine Áñez, which was broadly rejected by the masses and eventually led to new elections in 2020, bringing Luis Arce to power.

What is the impact on civilians?

Bolivia is not currently in a civil war, but it has experienced periods of civil conflict in the past, most notably the Bolivian Civil War, also known as the Federal War, which took place from 1898 to 1899. Here is some information on the impact of this conflict on civilians:

The Bolivian Civil War caused significant disruptions to the everyday lives of civilians, who experienced a surge of revolutions and counter-revolutions within the territories controlled by the opposing factions. Both sides committed atrocities against the civilian population, and there were reports of indigenous communities being sacked and abused by the conservative forces during their march to La Paz.

The conflict resulted in a wave of refugees and internally displaced persons, as people fled the violence and instability. The conservative forces, led by President Severo Fernández, marched on La Paz with three military squadrons, and the liberal rebels, led by Colonel José Manuel Pando and supported by the indigenous communities, obtained more than 2,000 weapons to resist.

The war also had economic consequences for civilians, as the conflict disrupted trade and agricultural production. The country was already facing economic challenges due to the collapse of the gold mining industry, and the war further strained resources. The post-war period was marked by disillusionment with the Federal Government Junta, which failed to uphold its promises to the rural and indigenous classes, leading to protests and executions.

Indigenous communities, in particular, faced severe repercussions during and after the war. Despite their crucial support for the liberal faction, the aristocratic criollo elites did not return any lands to the indigenous and mestizo populations, leading to a growing estrangement. Indigenous communities were once again subjected to forced labour and displacement, with their lands exploited for rubber production and settler colonisation.

The war also contributed to the political and social instability in Bolivia, setting the stage for further upheaval and revolutions in the 20th century. The country continued to experience political and ideological divisions, with the liberal victory failing to bring about significant social change or the transformation of Bolivia into a federal state.

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