Bavaria's Afd Voters: Who Are They?

Bavaria, Germany's largest state, has traditionally been a calm region governed by the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party. However, the political landscape in Bavaria is undergoing a significant shift, with a rise in populist sentiment and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gaining traction among voters. The AfD is a right-wing populist and nationalist party that opposes immigration, Islam, and the European Union. In the 2023 Bavarian state election, the AfD made significant gains, becoming the third-largest party in the state with 14.6% of the vote. This shift in Bavarian politics challenges the notion that hard-right populism is solely an east German problem. The rise of the AfD in Bavaria is part of a broader trend of increasing support for the party across Germany, with the AfD becoming the second most popular party in polling in 2023.

The AfD's anti-immigration stance

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been described as a far-right, anti-immigration party. Founded in 2013, the party initially focused on its opposition to bailouts of indebted European Union member states. However, it has since shifted to an anti-immigration stance, capitalising on fears around immigration and Islamification.

The AfD has completely rejected former Chancellor Angela Merkel's welcoming policy towards refugees, particularly from the Arab world. Since 2015, over 1.5 million migrants have arrived in Germany, and the AfD wants to change the country's constitution to remove the right to an individual hearing in asylum cases. The party advocates for the immediate deportation of all those whose applications are rejected, regardless of whether the countries they are sent back to are safe or not. They also want to institute rigorous identity checks along Germany's borders and set up holding camps abroad to prevent migrants from entering Germany.

The AfD's lead candidate in the 2021 elections, Alice Weidel, stated that the party wanted to achieve "negative immigration" to Germany. They argue that Germany is being "Islamified" and present themselves as a defender of traditional Christian values and the nuclear family model. They are anti-abortion and hostile towards what they call "alternative" lifestyles, despite their own leader, Alice Weidel, being in a same-sex relationship.

The AfD's stance has been particularly influential in Bavaria, which was one of the main entry points for asylum seekers in 2015 and has the second-highest immigrant population in Germany. In the 2024 elections, the AfD gained 4.4% in Bavaria, ending up in third place with 14.6% of the vote. The party's success in the region has been attributed to fears around immigration, with one voter stating that "a lot of refugees" were processed in Deggendorf, a town in Bavaria, in 2015.

Bavaria's refugee reception centre

Bavarias Refugee Reception Centre

In August 2018, the seven districts of Bavaria established an 'AnkER' centre, a portmanteau of the German words for "arrival", "decision", and "return". These centres are processing and holding facilities for migrants, which the Bavarian state government hopes will expedite the asylum process. The concept of an AnkER centre is to be understood as a single location concentrating all relevant authorities and actors in the process, as well as accommodating asylum seekers. The aim of the centralisation of all relevant actors is to accelerate and link the asylum, Dublin, and return procedures. While the asylum procedure is under federal responsibility, reception and return fall within the competence of Federal States.

Bavaria's interior minister, Joachim Hermann, has stated that the camps merely bundle into one location previously decentralised agencies with differing competences. Up to 1,500 people will be held in each of the centres, providing a one-stop shop for new arrivals. The camps are housed in pre-existing asylum centres and residents will be allowed to come and go. Children will receive education inside the camps rather than at local schools. Bavarian authorities have been instructed to take swift action against migrants who break the law.

The AnkER centre model has been criticised by migration NGO Pro Asyl, which has called closed facilities an "obstacle to integration by government degree". The charity Save the Children has also attacked the fenced-in centres as a risk to asylum procedures and fundamental rights, particularly for child development. The centres are controversial, too, in Germany's ruling coalition in Berlin. Johannes-Wilhelm Rörig, a government commissioner responsible for children's rights, has questioned whether the Bavarian anchor centres conform with Germany's commitments to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child.

The establishment of the AnkER centres in Bavaria coincides with federal interior minister Horst Seehofer's "migrant masterplan", a 63-point paper presented to optimise and standardise asylum procedures. Seehofer's immigration blueprint has been dubbed an asylum crackdown by critics.

The Christian Social Union (CSU)

The CSU was founded in 1945, immediately after World War II, by various Roman Catholic and Protestant groups. It has governed Bavaria continuously since 1946, except for a three-year period from 1954-1957. The CSU has contributed eleven of the twelve minister-presidents of Bavaria since 1945.

The CSU is bound by a deal with the CDU that means they are fused together and yet separate. In exchange for not competing in each other's territories, the two parties agree to form a nationwide force at the federal level. The CSU has representatives in the federal parliament, the Bundestag, and if the CDU/CSU wins a national election, the CSU is guaranteed seats in the Cabinet.

In recent years, the CSU's vote has splintered, with other right-wing rivals like the populist centre-right Free Voters and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) peeling off sections of its electorate. In the 2018 Bavarian state election, the CSU suffered its worst result in state elections since 1950, with 37.2% of the vote. In the 2021 German federal election, the CSU had a weak showing with 5.2% of votes nationally and 31.7% of the total in Bavaria.

The CSU has taken a tough stance on migration and asylum seekers, clashing with Chancellor Angela Merkel over her migration policy. The CSU has also been criticised for focusing too much on migration while giving short shrift to other issues on voters' minds, such as affordable housing and education. The CSU has a more socially conservative stance on religion, with party leader Markus Söder ordering that all public buildings hang a cross up prominently "as an expression of Bavaria's historical and cultural character."

The rise of the far-right in Germany

In recent years, Germany has witnessed a surge in far-right sentiment, which, given the country's history of Nazism, has sparked national and international concern. This resurgence is mainly embodied by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has increasingly embraced extreme right-wing ideologies and revisionist narratives of Germany's past. The AfD's recent electoral success, particularly in Bavaria and the former East German states, has sent a clear signal of growing discontent with the country's direction under Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Economic and Social Catalysts

Several factors have fueled the rise of the AfD. High immigration rates following the refugee crises of the 2010s have been a significant driver, with the party exploiting public fears about the impact of immigration on German cultural and economic stability. This narrative has gained traction amidst broader societal uncertainties, exacerbated by financial challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The struggling German economy, coupled with the influx of immigrants, has further intensified debates on immigration and integration, providing fertile ground for far-right rhetoric. Economic frustrations and the perceived ineffectiveness of the current government have added fuel to the fire, with Chancellor Scholz's administration being criticized for its handling of various crises, including energy transition and economic reform.

Political and Public Response

In response to the growing influence of far-right ideologies, German authorities, led by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, have implemented measures to curb extremist groups' operational capabilities, including stricter controls on weapon ownership and enhanced monitoring of their financial activities.

Simultaneously, there has been significant public opposition to the far-right agenda, with millions of Germans participating in demonstrations advocating for democracy and condemning hate. These protests reflect widespread public dissent and have pressured the government to adopt more decisive actions against far-right extremism.

Addressing the Challenge of Far-Right Extremism

Addressing the rise of the AfD presents a complex challenge. The party's popularity, particularly among younger voters in economically struggling regions, underscores a profound discontent with the current political and economic systems. Moreover, the party's radical factions, such as the Thuringia branch led by Bjoern Hoecke, pose a significant threat to democratic values. Hoecke has openly espoused revisionist views of Germany's Nazi past, calling the Holocaust memorial in Berlin a "monument of shame".

Efforts to ban the AfD have sparked controversy, reflecting the delicate balance between protecting democratic principles and suppressing extremist views. Given the AfD's significant electoral support, such a ban would have substantial legal and political implications. The narrative of nationalism and xenophobia propagated by the AfD is not just a political challenge but a moral test for Germany, requiring a reconciliation of economic and social policies with democratic values and human rights.

Societal Integration and Education

To counteract the growing influence of the far-right, Germany has increased its efforts in civic education, promoting democratic values and raising awareness about the dangers of extremism. Educational programs that foster tolerance and diversity are being expanded, especially in areas with high levels of AfD support. Additionally, community integration projects aim to bring together people from various backgrounds to foster unity and mutual respect, particularly in areas with high numbers of immigrants.

International Cooperation

On the international stage, Germany is seeking greater cooperation with European neighbors to tackle the rise of far-right extremism, including intelligence sharing and law enforcement coordination. Germany is also actively participating in global forums to address the root causes of extremism, such as economic disparity and political disenfranchisement, contributing to a more robust international framework for combating far-right ideologies.

The impact of the 2015 refugee crisis on German politics

The 2015 refugee crisis had a profound impact on German politics, polarising public opinion and reshaping the country's political landscape. Here are some key aspects of how the crisis influenced German politics:

• Rise of the Far-Right: The refugee crisis fuelled the rise of far-right and populist parties, particularly the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD capitalised on public anxiety and concerns over immigration, becoming significantly more popular. In Bavaria, for example, the AfD made substantial electoral gains, overtaking established parties and appealing to voters who felt that the refugee crisis had been mishandled.
• Political Polarisation: The influx of refugees contributed to increased political polarisation in Germany. Right-wing parties adopted more hardline stances on immigration, while left-wing parties struggled to retain their traditional voter base. This polarisation was evident in Bavaria, where the Christian Social Union (CSU) shifted further to the right to compete with the AfD.
• Shifting Political Alliances: The refugee crisis strained the relationship between Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU. CSU leader Horst Seehofer clashed with Merkel over immigration policy, nearly bringing down the government. This discord highlighted a growing divide within the conservative bloc.
• Impact on Merkel's Chancellorship: Merkel's decision to suspend the Dublin Regulation and open Germany's borders to refugees earned her both praise and criticism. While her famous phrase, "Wir schaffen das" ("We can do this"), became a symbol of her refugee policy, it also faced strong opposition, including from within her own party. The refugee crisis contributed to a decline in support for Merkel and her party, raising questions about her future as chancellor.
• Changes in Asylum Policies: In the aftermath of the refugee crisis, Germany adopted stricter asylum laws and border controls. Amendments to the German Asylum Act accelerated the asylum application process and expanded the list of countries classified as "safe." These changes reflected a shift towards more restrictive immigration policies.
• Impact on Public Opinion: The refugee crisis influenced public discourse and shaped how media outlets framed the issue. German media outlets, such as "Die Welt," often portrayed the influx of refugees as a "problem," focusing on numbers and security concerns. This framing influenced public opinion, with many Germans expressing anxiety about the impact of refugees on their society and culture.

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