Bahrain-Iran Tensions: Is Bahrain Safe?

Bahrain is a small island nation in the Persian Gulf, ruled by the Sunni Al Khalifa family since 1783. The country is of strategic importance as it hosts the US Navy's 5th Fleet and a British naval base. Bahrain has a majority Shiite population, with strong familial, linguistic, and political ties to Iran.

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, relations between the two countries have been strained, with Bahrain accusing Iran of arming militants on the island and attempting to overthrow the Sunni government. Iran has denied these accusations, but weapons experts suggest explosives found in Bahrain bear similarities to those linked to Iran.

Bahrain's Shiite population has accused the government of treating them like second-class citizens, and joined pro-democracy activists in demanding more political freedoms during the 2011 Arab Spring protests. Saudi and Emirati troops helped violently put down these demonstrations.

In recent years, Bahrain has cracked down on all dissent, imprisoned activists, and hampered independent reporting on the island. The country has also strengthened its ties with Israel, becoming the fourth Arab country to agree to a peace deal with Israel in 2020.

Iran has criticised Bahrain's normalisation of ties with Israel, accusing it of sacrificing the Palestinian cause. Bahrain, on the other hand, has long blamed Tehran for fomenting unrest among its Shiite population.

The strained relationship between Bahrain and Iran has resulted in increased repression at home, with death sentences rising by 600% in the last decade and the political opposition being disbanded or imprisoned. Bahrain's alliance with Israel has further curbed people's freedoms, with activists alleging that the state uses Israeli spyware to crush dissent.

While Bahrain's national interests may be served by an alliance with Israel to counter Iran's military threat, the country's domestic unrest is likely to continue as long as the Al Khalifa clan rejects calls for reform and fails to address the grievances of the majority of its population.

Iran's claims to Bahrain

Iran has long claimed that Bahrain is a province of Iran, and has often laid claim to the island nation based on its history as a prominent part of the Persian Empire. In 1957, Iran's parliament passed a bill declaring Bahrain to be the country's fourteenth province, known as Mishmahig.

In the 1700s, the Al Khalifa, the ruling family of Bahrain since the eighteenth century, showed loyalty to Iran by raising the Iranian flag on official buildings during the last years of the 19th century. In return, Iran reserved two seats for Bahrain in its parliament from 1906 to 1971.

In 1970, a UN-administered plebiscite found that the vast majority of Bahrainis, both Sunni and Shiite, wanted Bahrain to remain an independent Arab state. Although Iran formally accepted this outcome, Iranian officials, diplomats and journalists periodically raise the issue, causing considerable Bahraini and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) irritation.

In 2022, amidst public unrest in Iran, the Iranian government began laying claims to Bahrain once again, with a revisionist aim of denying Bahrain's right to exist. This was seen by Bahrain as a clear threat to its sovereignty.

Bahrain's Shi'ite population

Bahrain has a majority Shiite population, with estimates suggesting that they make up 55-60% of the country's Muslim population. However, the country is governed by a Sunni royal family, the Al Khalifa, who arrived in Bahrain in 1783.

Shiites in Bahrain have historically faced discrimination and been treated as second-class citizens. Following the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Shiites in Bahrain wanted to participate in determining their own destiny and protested against the Al Khalifa government. This led to a crackdown on Shiites, with the detention and torture of men, women, and children, as well as the destruction of Shiite mosques and cemeteries.

The Shiite community in Bahrain has two main goals: opposition to the current government and changing the structure of society to be based on the rule of the people. To this end, they formed Al Wefaq, Bahrain's biggest opposition society, in 2001.

Despite the sectarian tensions, there are some areas of consensus between the Shiites and Sunnis in Bahrain. For example, both groups generally agree on the importance of good ties with Washington and promoting Palestinian-Israeli peace. However, they diverge sharply in their attitudes towards Iran, with the Shiites viewing Iran's policies more favorably.

Bahrain's crackdown on dissent

Since the 2011 uprising, Bahrain has been accused of cracking down on dissent, with the government targeting human rights defenders, lawyers, journalists, political activists, Shi'a clerics, and peaceful protesters. The government has also dismantled the political opposition, dissolved the main opposition group, and imposed arbitrary travel bans.

The 2011 Uprising

The 2011 uprising in Bahrain was a popular revolt, with protesters from both the Shi'ite and non-Shi'ite populations uniting around a common agenda of political and constitutional reform. However, the government sought to portray the uprising as a distinctly Shi'ite revolt inspired by Iran, and Saudi and UAE forces were deployed to Bahrain to guard strategic sites.

Post-Uprising Crackdown

In the years following the uprising, the Bahraini government has been accused of escalating allegations of Iranian support for the opposition, as well as seizing weapons and explosives shipments from Iran intended for the opposition. The government has also outlawed major opposition groups, imprisoned activists, and restricted independent reporting.

Human Rights Abuses

Amnesty International has documented rampant human rights abuses in Bahrain, including torture, arbitrary detentions, and excessive use of force against peaceful activists and government critics. Security forces have been accused of using excessive force, beating peaceful protesters, and firing shotguns and semi-automatic rifles.

Targeting Critics and the Media

The Bahraini authorities have targeted human rights defenders, lawyers, journalists, and political activists. Prominent journalist Nazeeha Saeed was put on trial for her journalism, and human rights defenders have been prevented from travelling to take part in the UN Human Rights Council. The authorities have also targeted the independent newspaper "al-Wasat", suspending its online edition and later closing it down entirely.

Dissolution of Political Opposition

Bahrain has dissolved the main opposition group, "al-Wefaq", and the opposition political party "Waad", on what Amnesty International has found to be unfounded charges. The government has also imposed arbitrary travel bans on critics and summoned, interrogated, and charged them with "illegal gathering".

Excessive Use of Force

Security forces in Bahrain have been accused of using excessive force, including firing tear gas and birdshot pellets, resulting in serious injuries and deaths. In one case, a 17-year-old boy was struck in the face by a tear gas canister, breaking his jaw. In another incident, security forces killed five people and arrested hundreds more during a raid on a sit-in outside the home of Shi'ite cleric Sheikh Isa Qassim.

International Response

The international community, particularly the US, UK, and EU, has been criticised for its weak response to the crackdown in Bahrain. The election of US President Donald Trump and his administration's deprioritisation of human rights has emboldened the Bahraini government, while the UK has failed to criticise the deterioration of human rights in the country.

Bahrain's relationship with Israel

Bahrain and Israel have had relations since Bahrain achieved its independence in 1971. However, the two countries only recently established diplomatic relations in September 2020.

Bahrain abandoned its boycott of Israel in 2005 in exchange for a free trade agreement with the United States. In 2017, the King of Bahrain denounced the Arab League boycott of Israel, stating that the kingdom's citizens were entitled to visit Israel. In 2018, Bahrain recognized Israel's right to exist.

In 2020, Bahrain and Israel signed the Bahrain-Israel normalization agreement, officially called the Abraham Accords: Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations. The agreement was facilitated by the United States and normalized diplomatic and other relations between the two countries.

The agreement was signed at the White House in Washington, D.C., and made Bahrain the fourth Arab state to recognize Israel. As part of the agreement, the two countries agreed to exchange ambassadors and open embassies in each country. They also agreed to cooperate in various areas, including technology, health, and agriculture. The agreement also allowed for the establishment of direct flights between the two countries.

Despite the agreement, there have been tensions between Bahrain and Israel due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. In November 2023, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Israel and suspended economic relations, citing its support for the Palestinian cause. However, sources indicate that Bahrain is committed to preserving its relationship with Israel while also managing public opinion within the country.

Bahrain's relationship with the US

Bahrain and the United States have been allies since Bahrain's independence in 1971 and have maintained close relations with shared economic and geopolitical interests. The United States established diplomatic relations with Bahrain in 1971 following its independence from the United Kingdom. The US Embassy in Manama was opened on 21 September 1971, and a resident ambassador was sent in 1974. The Bahrain Embassy in Washington, D.C., opened in 1977. The American community in Bahrain traces its origins to the arrival of missionaries from the Dutch Reformed Church in the late 19th century. The American Mission Hospital and the school they established in 1903 continue to operate in Bahrain.

The United States designated Bahrain a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2002. Bahrain plays a key role in the region's security architecture and is a vital US partner in defence initiatives. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and US Naval Forces Central Command and participates in US-led military coalitions, including the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. Bahrain's security forces have supported the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, providing perimeter security at a military base. Bahrain was the first Arab state to lead a Coalition Task Force patrolling the Gulf region and has supported the coalition counter-piracy mission with a deployment of its flagship. In August 2019, Bahrain was the first country in the Gulf region to announce publicly that it had joined the US-led International Maritime Security Construct to promote freedom of navigation in the region. The US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement (FTA) entered into force in 2006, generating additional commercial opportunities for both countries. In 2021, US-Bahrain two-way trade exceeded $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in 2020.

Bahrain has an elected lower house of parliament, the Council of Representatives (COR), and an appointed upper house, the Shura Council. Bahrain last held elections for the COR and municipal councils in November and December 2018. The United States supports Bahrain's efforts to develop the parliament's institutional capacity and encourages inclusive and transparent governance.

U.S. assistance enables the Government of Bahrain to continue to obtain the equipment and training it requires to provide for its own defence and to operate alongside US air and naval forces. US assistance strengthens Bahrain's interoperability for regional security and counterterrorism cooperation; boosts Bahrain's maritime defences against smuggling and terrorism; and improves Bahrain's ability to counter terrorism in a manner consistent with Bahrain's international human rights obligations and commitments.

In 2023, the United States and Bahrain signed a strategic security and economic agreement to expand defence and intelligence collaboration between the two countries.

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