Bahrain's Current Wars And Conflicts: An Overview

Bahrain is a small country in the Persian Gulf that has been involved in several wars and conflicts over the years. Most recently, in 2023, hundreds of prisoners in Jau prison started a mass hunger strike to protest their detention conditions. This is the context in which we will explore the question: Is Bahrain in any wars right now?

Bahrain is not currently involved in any wars

The Qatari–Bahraini War (1867–1868)

This conflict was fought between Bahrain and Qatar and resulted in Bahrain renouncing its claims on Qatar.

The Gulf War (1990–1991)

Bahrain was part of the coalition that participated in the Gulf War, which resulted in the Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait and heavy casualties and infrastructure destruction in Iraq and Kuwait.

The War in Afghanistan (2001–2014)

Bahrain was one of many countries that contributed to the coalition forces in the War in Afghanistan. The war resulted in the fall of the Taliban government, the destruction of al-Qaeda camps, and the occupation of Afghanistan, among other outcomes.

Yemeni Civil War (2014–present)

Bahrain has been involved in the ongoing Yemeni Civil War, which has resulted in the dissolution of the Yemeni government and Houthi control of northern Yemen.

Bahraini Uprising (2011–present)

While not a war per se, the Bahraini Uprising has been a significant source of tension and conflict in the country. Protests against the ruling Al-Khalifa family have often been met with a violent response from the government, leading to concerns about the potential for widespread sectarian violence and regional instability.

While Bahrain has not been directly involved in any wars in recent years, it has experienced political and social unrest, as well as ongoing tensions with neighbouring countries. The country's history includes several military engagements, but currently, Bahrain is not engaged in any active wars.

However, there are ongoing tensions with Iran

Bahrain is not currently engaged in any wars, but there are ongoing tensions with Iran.

Bahrain is a close ally of Saudi Arabia and has endorsed the Trump administration's aggressive posture against Iran. Manama's longstanding suspicions of Iranian support for anti-government groups make Bahrain a flashpoint for regionalising an internal political struggle.

Bahrain's foreign minister has met with his Iranian counterpart in Tehran, and according to a joint statement, they agreed to establish the necessary mechanisms to start talks between the two countries and examine the resumption of political ties. During a meeting with Russia's president, the king of Bahrain reportedly indicated that the kingdom looked forward to improving relations with Iran, and that there was no reason to delay the resumption of relations between the two countries.

In the aftermath of Bahrain's 2011 Arab Spring, the rulers in Manama became more unsettled by the potential role that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-backed Bahraini Shia opposition organisations could play in the country. Iran has perceived Bahrain's foreign policy as a threat, too. As one of the US's Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA), which also hosts the Fifth Fleet, Manama plays a critical role in facilitating Washington's military footprint in the Gulf. Additionally, as the second Arab state to join the Abraham Accords, Tehran feels threatened by Bahrain's relationship with Israel, which has been establishing a presence in the Gulf that terrifies the Islamic Republic.

There is also a history of Tehran's sovereign claims to Bahrain. Since Bahrain joined Saudi Arabia in cutting off diplomatic relations with Iran in January 2016, Bahrain's independence and territorial integrity have been increasingly important factors in tensions between Manama and Tehran. There have been numerous instances in which quasi-official Iranian media and even Iranian officials have publicly raised and reiterated the old Persian claim to 100% of Bahraini territory as an official part of Iran.

Despite these serious problems and tensions in bilateral affairs, sources in the Middle East have reported that Manama and Tehran have been engaging each other diplomatically through low-profile exchanges in recent months. Against the backdrop of the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic deal, one source stated that "after the reopening of the embassies in Tehran and Riyadh, there will after a short period of time also likely be a normalisation between Iran and Bahrain". There have been other signs of a thaw in Bahraini-Iranian relations, such as an Iranian delegation attending the 146th Inter-Parliamentary Union Council Assembly in Bahrain and meeting with a Bahraini parliamentarian.

It will not be easy for Bahrain and Iran to overcome the serious problems in their bilateral relationship, even if Riyadh and Tehran's relationship significantly thaws. Viewing Iran as the primary existential threat to its national security, Bahrain's lack of trust will likely result in any improvements in relations being limited to superficial diplomatic measures and more restrained rhetoric. Consequently, we should not anticipate any substantial enhancement of ties between the two nations beyond diplomatic courtesies in the near future.

There is a risk of a proxy sectarian war

Bahrain is not currently involved in any wars, but it has a history of conflict, including the Bahraini–Qatari Wars, the Gulf War, and the Yemeni Civil War. However, there is a risk of a proxy sectarian war due to the country's complex domestic politics and its position in the Persian Gulf region.

Sectarian Tensions in Bahrain

The Bahraini population is predominantly Shia (70%), but the country is ruled by a Sunni establishment, the Al-Khalifa family, which has been accused of discriminating against the Shia majority and marginalizing their influence in politics and civic life. This power dynamic has contributed to sectarian tensions and protests, with Shia citizens demanding greater civic equality and rights. The government's response to these protests, including the deaths of Shia citizens, has further inflamed sectarian divisions.

Regional Dynamics and Foreign Involvement

The dynamics of Bahrain's domestic politics are influenced by the country's position in the Persian Gulf region, particularly its proximity to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-ruled monarchy, has historically been a patron and supporter of Bahrain's ruling Al-Khalifa regime. However, Saudi Arabia's legitimacy rests on a clerical establishment that is hostile towards Shia Islam, which complicates its relationship with Bahrain's Shia population. On the other hand, Iran, a Shia theocratic republic, has historically considered Bahrain within its sphere of influence and has expressed solidarity with Shia protesters in Bahrain.

Potential for Escalation

The sectarian tensions in Bahrain have the potential to escalate into a proxy sectarian war due to the involvement of regional powers. If protests in Bahrain continue and the Al-Khalifa regime fails to implement meaningful reforms, there is a risk of deepening sectarian rifts and the potential involvement of Saudi Arabia and Iran on opposing sides. This could lead to a wider Sunni-Shia conflict in the region. Additionally, the presence of foreign troops, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) troops in Bahrain, further increases the risk of escalation and the potential for a proxy war between regional powers.

Preventing Sectarian War

To prevent the outbreak of a proxy sectarian war, concessions and preventative reforms are necessary. King Hamad of Bahrain must address the grievances of the Shia population and implement constitutional and civic reforms to increase political participation and reduce sectarian tensions. Additionally, foreign powers, particularly Western nations, have a role in supporting stability and encouraging dialogue between the Bahraini government and the Shia parties. A balanced approach that avoids taking sides between Sunni and Shia factions is crucial to maintaining stability and preventing escalation of tensions into a full-blown sectarian war.

There are also ongoing political tensions

Bahrain is not currently involved in any wars, but there are ongoing political tensions in the country.

In 2011, protests against Bahrain's ruling Al-Khalifa family took on the feel of a Shia uprising against the Sunni governing establishment. The Shia majority in Bahrain, who have long been discriminated against by the government with their influence marginalised in politics and civic life, began to demand the royal family's ousting. This inflamed many Bahraini Sunnis, who rallied behind the Al-Khalifas. The protests led to the deaths of seven Shia citizens.

The situation in Bahrain is complicated by the involvement of neighbouring countries. Bahrain is closely tied to Saudi Arabia, a theocratic monarchy whose legitimacy rests on a clerical establishment that is vehemently hostile to Shia Islam. Saudi Arabia also has a large Shia minority and shares a border with the Shia-majority region of ash sharaqiyah, which is of critical importance as it contains the country's major oil production facilities. The Saudi monarchy has long walked a tightrope to maintain stability in ash sharaqiyah, and the sectarian troubles in Bahrain have upset this balance.

Iran, a Shia theocratic republic, has also been watching events in Bahrain closely. Iranian officials have deemed Bahrain an Iranian province and see the country as a sphere of influence that must be defended from Sunni oppression. The killing and imprisonment of Shia protesters in Bahrain puts pressure on Iran to act, but doing so risks escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and drawing in the United States, whose 5th fleet is based in Bahrain.

The Bahraini King, Hamad, initially responded to the 2011 protests with a conciliatory tone, but the government's welcoming of foreign intervention in the form of troops from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) indicates that any optimism inspired by signs of dialogue may prove short-lived. King Hamad's role in ameliorating the situation is critical. If he does not make adequate reforms and instead resorts to force to quell protests, sectarian rifts will deepen and Bahrain could become the frontline of a regional struggle between Sunni-ruled powers and Shia Iran.

In August 2023, hundreds of prisoners in Jau prison, which incarcerates the majority of Bahrain’s 1,200 political prisoners, began a mass hunger strike to demand better conditions. This led to rare demonstrations in solidarity with the prisoners in the capital, Manama.

Bahrain has been involved in international conflicts in the past

Bahrain has been involved in several international conflicts in the past. Notably, it was part of the Gulf War (1990-1991) and the War in Afghanistan (2001-2014). Bahrain has also been involved in conflicts with other Gulf nations, such as Qatar and Oman.

One of the earliest recorded conflicts involving Bahrain was the Siege of Bahrain in 1559, during which an Ottoman invasion was repelled. In 1717, an Omani invasion succeeded, and Bahrain was sold back to the Safavids. In 1783, the Bani Utbah invaded Bahrain, annexing it into their sheikhdom and ending Persian rule.

More recently, Bahrain has been involved in the Yemeni Civil War (since 2014) and the Intervention against ISIS (since 2014). Additionally, Bahrain was involved in the Decisive Storm campaign (since 2015) in support of the Hadi government in Yemen.

Bahrain has also experienced internal conflicts and unrest. In 2011, protests against the ruling Al-Khalifa family took on a sectarian tone, with the Shia majority protesting against discrimination and marginalization by the Sunni government. This unrest led to concerns about the potential for a proxy sectarian war in Bahrain, with Iran and Saudi Arabia backing opposing sides.

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