Bahrain's Population Boom: What's Driving The Rapid Growth?

Bahrain's population has been growing at a rapid pace over the last few decades, with the population increasing from 0.35 million in 1980 to about 1.5 million in 2018. The population growth rate in 2023 was 0.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2022. The current population of Bahrain in 2024 is estimated to be around 1.5 million people, with the country's total land area being 760 square kilometres. This rapid population growth has been influenced by two key factors: improving socio-economic conditions that have encouraged the growth of the native Bahraini population, and an increasingly diversified economy that has attracted foreign workers, particularly in the industrial and service sectors.

Population growth rate in 2024

The population growth rate in Bahrain for 2024 is estimated to be 0.89%, an increase from 0.88% in 2023. This represents a continuation of the downward trend in population growth rates seen globally since the 1970s. The current population of Bahrain is estimated to be between 1,498,712 and 1,620,418, with a median age of 33.2 years and a population density of 2,115 people per square kilometre.

In 2023, Bahrain's population grew by 0.9%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from 2022. This growth rate is significantly lower than in previous years. The population growth rate in Bahrain is influenced by factors such as fertility, mortality, and migration.

While the world's population continues to increase, with approximately 140 million babies born every year, the rate of population growth has been slowing for several decades. This slowdown is expected to continue until the rate of population growth reaches zero, with an equal number of births and deaths, around 2080-2100. The global population is projected to reach approximately 10.4 billion people by this time.

The decrease in the global population growth rate is driven by falling fertility rates, which have more than halved since the 1960s. Migration movements and China's population decline also contribute to the slowdown. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted life expectancy rates, with around 15 million more deaths in 2020 and 2021 compared to previous years. However, rates are now returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Population growth rates vary across regions, with some countries experiencing growth while others face decline. Countries with the highest population growth rates are expected to be in Africa, with advancements in medical care and decreased infant mortality and malnutrition contributing to rising fertility and birth rates. In contrast, Eastern European countries are projected to experience the largest population contractions.

Factors influencing population growth

The population of Bahrain has been steadily increasing over the years, with the current population estimated to be around 1.49 million to 1.62 million as of 2024. In 2023, the annual population growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points (+49.18%) compared to 2022, amounting to a total growth of 0.9% in 2023. However, the last two years have seen a significantly lower population growth rate than previous years.

Fertility Rates:

Fertility rates play a crucial role in population growth. The total fertility rate (TFR) is expressed as the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (15-49). Bahrain's fertility rate data is not readily available, but it is an essential factor influencing population growth.

Mortality Rates:

Mortality rates, including infant mortality and life expectancy, impact population growth. Lower infant mortality rates and higher life expectancy can contribute to population growth. Bahrain's life expectancy and infant mortality rate data would provide further insights into this factor.

Migration:

Migration is a significant factor in population change. The net migration rate, calculated as the number of immigrants minus emigrants over a given period, can significantly influence the population. Bahrain's migrant population data is not readily available, but it is an essential factor to consider.

Economic Factors:

Economic factors, such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and economic opportunities, can influence population growth. A strong economy with high-paying jobs can attract immigrants, contributing to population growth. Additionally, improved healthcare and education, often associated with economic development, can lower mortality rates and influence fertility rates.

Social and Cultural Factors:

Social and cultural factors, such as marriage rates, family planning practices, and cultural norms surrounding family size, can influence fertility rates and, consequently, population growth. These factors are challenging to quantify but play a crucial role in understanding population trends.

Government Policies:

Government policies, such as immigration laws, family planning initiatives, and social welfare programs, can impact population growth. Bahrain's specific policies in these areas are not readily available but are essential to consider.

In summary, while Bahrain has experienced consistent population growth, the rate has slowed in the last two years. Understanding the interplay of factors such as fertility, mortality, migration, economic conditions, social norms, and government policies is essential to comprehending the country's population dynamics.

Population growth and economic growth

Bahrain's Population Growth

As of November 2024, Bahrain's population is estimated to be 1,620,418. This is a 0.9% increase from 2022 to 2023, with the population in 2022 being 1,472,233. The population growth rate in Bahrain has been declining over the past two years, recording significantly lower growth than in previous years.

The relationship between population growth and economic growth is complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, a high population growth rate can strain natural resources, leading to unsustainability and depletion of resources. This is particularly true for developing countries with limited resources and infrastructure. Additionally, a large population can hinder economic growth by reducing the rate of capital formation, increasing investment requirements, and causing unemployment.

However, healthy population growth can also boost economic growth. For example, a larger population increases the demand for products and services, encouraging technological advancements and innovation. Moreover, countries with high population numbers can offer cheap labour, attracting corporations to set up manufacturing plants, providing employment and driving economic growth, as seen in China.

Positive and Negative Impacts of Population Growth on Economic Growth

Positive Impacts:

• Increased demand: A rise in population increases the demand for goods and services, stimulating economic growth.
• Technological advancement: A growing population encourages the development of better and faster ways to produce goods and services.
• Cheap labour: Countries with large populations can offer cheap labour, attracting foreign investment and boosting employment.

Negative Impacts:

• Resource strain: Rapid population growth can put pressure on natural resources, leading to unsustainability and depletion.
• Capital formation: In developing countries, a large percentage of the population may be dependents, reducing the rate of capital formation.
• Investment requirements: A larger population requires more capital investment to sustain basic needs.
• Unemployment: A large population with low development levels can lead to massive unemployment, reducing productivity.
• Hunger: Population growth can outpace food production, leading to food scarcity and malnutrition.
• Environmental impact: Increased population size can accelerate deforestation, pollution, and the depletion of non-renewable resources.

Population growth and immigration

Current Population and Growth Rate

Bahrain's population is estimated to be between 1,498,712 and 1,620,418 as of 2024. The population growth rate has been fluctuating over the years, with an increase of 0.9% from 2022 to 2023, and a 0.89% increase from 2023 to 2024. While the growth rate has decreased in the last two years compared to preceding years, the population has still been increasing.

Factors Affecting Population Growth

Population growth is influenced by various factors, including fertility, mortality, and migration. In Bahrain, the improving socio-economic conditions have encouraged the growth of the native Bahraini population. Additionally, Bahrain's diversified economy has increased the demand for skilled labour, particularly in the industrial and service sectors, attracting foreign workers. As a result, expatriates currently slightly exceed the number of citizens, with 51% of the population being expatriates.

Historical Perspective

Over the last four decades, Bahrain's population has almost quadrupled, growing from about 0.35 million in 1980 to about 1.5 million in 2018. The rates of growth during this period fluctuated, with the highest being 4.3% between 1970 and 1975, and the lowest at 2.8% from 1975 to 1980, according to the UN Population Division. The government has recognised the interlinkages between economic expansion and demographic growth, particularly concerning immigration and spatial distribution.

Future Projections

Bahrain's population growth is expected to continue, with an official projection of reaching about 2.4 million by 2035. The country aims to foster a private sector-driven economy that is largely independent of oil, in line with its Economic Vision 2030. To achieve this, Bahrain has been encouraging investment in new sectors such as tourism, business services, manufacturing, logistics, and export-oriented industries.

Population growth projections

The population of Bahrain is projected to increase in the coming years, with the United Nations projecting population estimates through the year 2100. Bahrain's population has been steadily increasing over the years, with the current population estimated to be between 1,498,712 and 1,620,418 as of 2024. The population growth rate has varied, with a 0.9% increase from 2022 to 2023, and a 0.89% increase from 2023 to 2024.

In 2023, the annual population growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points (+49.18%) compared to 2022. However, the last two years recorded significantly lower population growth than previous years. This growth is influenced by factors such as fertility, mortality, and migration. The net migration rate in 2023 was 7,996 people, with more people immigrating to Bahrain than emigrating.

Looking ahead, Bahrain's population is expected to continue growing. By the beginning of 2025, the population is projected to reach 1,823,725, an increase of 31,507 people from 2024. This growth is attributed to both a positive natural increase, with births exceeding deaths, and net migration gains. The population distribution is expected to remain predominantly urban, with a median age of around 33.2 years.

The United Nations provides more long-term projections, extending to the year 2100. However, the specific figures and growth rates for these projections are not publicly available. Nonetheless, these projections indicate that Bahrain's population will continue to be a subject of interest for demographic studies and urban planning in the coming decades.

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