Lyla Lindsey
Australia has warmed by approximately 1.51°C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. This warming has resulted in an increase in extreme heat events, with 2019 being Australia's warmest year on record. Climate change is driving changes in temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, all of which have contributed to the increase in extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season across Australia. Heat-related mortality is a growing concern in Australia, particularly for older individuals and Indigenous communities, who are already disproportionately exposed to heat. The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, driven by the increased greenhouse effect from human activities such as burning fossil fuels and agriculture.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Average temperature increase since 1910 | 1.51 °C ± 0.23 °C |
| Average temperature increase since 1880 | 1.2 °C |
| Number of days with temperature ≥ 35 °C in Alice Springs, 2018-2019 | 69 |
| Number of days with temperature ≥ 40 °C in Alice Springs, 2018-2019 | 17 |
| Frequency of warm conditions > 2700 hours | About 3 times higher than Sydney |
| Very hot hours above 37 °C | About 10 times more frequent than in Western Sydney |
| Heat-related deaths among people over 65 | > 1000 per year |
| Heat-related deaths per 100,000 population | 33 |
| Projected increase in heat-related deaths by 2080 | 8 per 100,000 population per year |
| Projected increase in heat-related deaths by 2050 | 70% |
| Projected increase in cardiovascular disease burden | Double |
| Residential electricity use increase on days ≥ 35 °C | 3 to 4 times |
| Risk of blackouts or power shortages | Higher |
| Percentage of public trees at high risk from increased temperatures by 2070 | 14% (22% of species) in emissions-limited climate change scenario; 24% (35% of species) in business-as-usual emissions scenario |
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What You'll Learn
Australia's warming climate
One of the most pressing concerns is the increase in extreme heat events. These events have become more frequent and intense, with the number of very high night-time temperatures increasing significantly. This trend is expected to continue, leading to a range of negative consequences. For example, the increase in extreme heat is projected to contribute to a rise in heat-related mortality rates, particularly in vulnerable communities such as Aboriginal communities that are already disproportionately exposed to heat. Additionally, the warming climate is causing changes in Australia's unique natural environments, with research suggesting that by 2070, a significant proportion of public trees in Australian cities will be at high risk from increased temperatures.
The urban heat island effect further exacerbates the impact of rising temperatures in Australia's urban areas. Temperatures in urban areas can be 1–7 °C higher than in surrounding rural areas, and this difference is expected to become more pronounced with climate change. This effect has significant implications for livability and health in Australian cities, particularly for vulnerable populations.
While the role of climate change in Australia's warming climate is well-established, the specific impacts on rainfall patterns are more complex. Australia experiences high interannual variability in heavy rainfall due to major climate influences such as La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While there may be a potential increase in rainfall intensity relative to pre-industrial climate, the signal of climate change can be challenging to detect in individual events due to the natural variability in Australia's rainfall patterns.
Overall, Australia's warming climate is an ongoing and long-term trend that cannot be explained by natural variability alone. The impacts of this warming are far-reaching, and addressing them will require a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic context and the implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.
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Rising sea levels
Australia's warming trend is consistent with global trends, with the country experiencing an average increase of 1.51 ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910. The country's warmest year on record was 2019, and 8 of the 9 warmest years have occurred since 2013.
The rising sea levels will have significant impacts on Australia's coastal communities, industries, and ecosystems. Coastal ecosystems such as beaches, coral reefs, estuaries, and wetlands are particularly vulnerable. Coastal cities and towns face increased risks of flooding, coastal erosion, and higher storm surges. The combination of rising sea levels and storm events, such as east coast lows or tropical cyclones, will exacerbate these impacts.
Additionally, the built environment and critical infrastructure are at risk of damage or disruption. Industries located in coastal areas, particularly those relying on port facilities, will need to prepare for changes in access and the use of coastal resources. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events associated with climate change further compound these challenges.
To address these issues, government, industry, and communities must collaborate on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Research plays a crucial role in understanding the impacts, supporting adaptation, and modelling future projections. Planning decisions for coastal areas must consider the long-term impacts of rising sea levels, even after achieving net-zero emissions, to enhance the resilience of vulnerable regions.
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Extreme weather
Australia's climate is changing, with increases in average air and ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, reductions in snow and ice cover, and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation and regional weather patterns. Since national records began in 1910, Australia has warmed by 1.51 °C, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than the previous decade, and eight of the nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2013.
These changes are driven by the increased greenhouse effect, caused by the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land clearing are significant contributors to these emissions.
The impact of these changes is felt across Australia, with extreme heat events becoming more frequent and intense. Heat is a significant public health risk, contributing to the deaths of over 1,000 people aged 65 and above each year. This pressure is expected to increase, particularly with Australia's ageing population. Heatwaves also strain infrastructure and resources, such as energy and water. Residential electricity use can be three to four times higher during heatwaves, increasing the risk of blackouts or power shortages, which can be life-threatening for vulnerable communities.
The warming climate has also led to an increase in extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season, resulting in larger and more frequent fires. Climate change influences fire behaviour through its effects on temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, which impact fuel availability, dryness, and ignition sources.
Southern Australia has experienced significant cool-season drying, resulting in clearer and colder winter nights. The region has seen a decline in rainfall during the cooler months due to a decrease in low-pressure systems and the reduced likelihood of precipitation from these systems.
Australia's urban areas are also affected by the changing climate. By 2070, up to 24% of all public trees in Australian cities may be at high risk from increased temperatures, according to the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub report.
Overall, the changing climate is driving an increase in extreme weather events in Australia, impacting human health, infrastructure, and the natural environment.
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Health risks
Australia has been experiencing more frequent and severe heatwaves due to climate change, and this has significant implications for human health. Heatwaves have been identified as a major threat, with approximately 2,296 heat-related deaths per year in Australia from 2000 to 2019. The elderly, young children, and those with existing medical conditions are particularly vulnerable.
Heat extremes can exacerbate underlying illnesses and increase the risk of accidents and transmission of infectious diseases. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental health issues, and respiratory problems are among the most common conditions affected by heat. Heatwaves can also compromise essential health services, such as power supply and transport, and disrupt sleep patterns. The impact of heat is not limited to physical health, as it can also negatively affect mental health and increase the risk of anxiety, psychological distress, and poor sleep quality.
The "urban heat island effect" is a significant concern in Australian cities, where urban areas are warmer than the surrounding land due to the abundance of roads, buildings, and dark roofs that trap and absorb heat. This effect can be mitigated by increasing urban green spaces, such as street trees and urban forests, which provide cooling benefits. Additionally, implementing vegetated roofs, developing more water bodies, and prioritizing urban greening can help blunt temperature rises and reduce heat-related health risks, especially for low-income residents.
The health risks associated with heatwaves are not limited to direct physiological impacts but also include behavioral disorders and mental health issues. Research has found a strong correlation between heatwaves and an increased risk of mortality among individuals with mental and behavioral disorders. This highlights the need for comprehensive heat vulnerability assessments that consider both physical and mental health vulnerabilities.
To address the health risks posed by Australia's increasing temperatures, specific public health and multi-sectoral policies and interventions are necessary. Practical and low-cost interventions at various levels, including individual, community, organizational, and governmental, can save lives. Heatwave action plans should incorporate health vulnerability indices (HVI) and be based on diverse climate change scenarios to effectively inform long-term adaptation measures, especially for vulnerable communities.
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Biodiversity impacts
Australia's warming climate is a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The country has warmed by an average of 1.51 °C since national records began in 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950. This warming has had, and will continue to have, a significant impact on biodiversity.
Impact on Indigenous Communities
Indigenous communities, both urban and remote, are disproportionately affected by climate change. Aboriginal Australians who live in isolated and remote traditional territories are more sensitive to changes in the ecosystems they are a part of. This is due to the connection between their health, the health of their land, and their traditional cultural customs. Climate change has resulted in a decline in the health of Indigenous communities, including their mental health.
Impact on Ecosystems
Australia's warming climate has led to an increase in extreme heat events, bushfires, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones. These events have had a devastating impact on the country's ecosystems, with southern Australia experiencing a decline in cool-season rainfall due to changing weather systems. The increase in extreme fire weather has led to larger and more frequent fires, particularly in southern Australia. The Great Barrier Reef, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming is anticipated to cause considerable losses of species associated with coral communities. The Lord Howe Island coral reefs are also at risk, with approximately 5% of the coral already dead as of April 2019.
Loss of Biodiversity
The Department of Climate Change has warned that ecologically rich sites, such as the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics, Kakadu Wetlands, Australian Alpine areas, southwestern Australia, and sub-Antarctic islands, are all at risk, with significant loss of biodiversity projected to occur. At least 90 Australian animal species have been identified as being at risk from climate change, including mammals, insects, birds, reptiles, fish, and amphibians. Climate change is also causing shifts in habitat zones, which, combined with the loss of habitat due to increased development, is having a detrimental impact on the health of animals and plants.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, the role of climate change in Australia's recent extreme heat is well-established. Australia has warmed by 1.51 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950.
Climate change has led to an increase in extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season across large parts of Australia since the 1950s. This has resulted in larger and more frequent fires, especially in southern Australia.
Heat is a serious public health crisis in Australia, contributing to the deaths of over 1,000 people aged over 65 each year. Heatwaves also put pressure on infrastructure and resources, such as energy and water.
The additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are primarily due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land clearing. These activities have increased the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, leading to an increased greenhouse effect.
