Lexi Webster
Australia's population is expected to experience significant changes in the coming decades, with large cities projected to see substantial growth while many regional areas face shrinking and ageing populations. These demographic shifts present challenges and have sparked debates about the need for a national plan of settlement. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the cohort-component method to project future population trends, considering factors such as fertility, mortality, and migration. Official population projections play a crucial role in guiding infrastructure investments and service provisions in Australia's states and territories. However, there are concerns about the lack of scientific and community engagement in population policymaking. The complex dynamics of population growth and the ethical dimensions of potential solutions highlight the importance of a national conversation on Australia's future population, involving diverse communities across urban and rural areas.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Population projection methods | Cohort-component method |
| Population projection factors | Fertility, mortality, overseas migration, internal migration |
| Population projection period | 30 June 2023 to 30 June 2071 |
| Population projection series | High, medium, low |
| Number of projection series with zero net overseas migration assumption | 18 |
| Population growth locations | Large cities |
| Population shrinkage locations | Regional and rural areas |
| Population growth policymaking frameworks | Planning Strategy for South Australia |
| Population growth policy objectives | Maintain and improve liveability, increase competitiveness, drive sustainability, increase resilience to climate change |
| Population growth policy recommendations | Prepare a "national plan of settlement", strengthen land use planning systems |
| Population growth challenges | Pressures on social and ecological systems |
| Population growth solutions | Consider alternative entry points to population debates, such as consumption, productive ageing, and urban planning |
| Population growth considerations | Ethical dimension, shared values such as equity, sustainability, opportunity, diversity, justice, and agency |
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What You'll Learn
Population growth and distribution
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the cohort-component method to produce population projections. This method involves making assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, which are applied to a base population to obtain projected populations for subsequent years. By considering different combinations of assumptions, the ABS can provide a range of possible future outcomes for Australia's population.
Over the next few decades, Australia's large cities are expected to experience significant population growth. This trend is already evident in the official projections prepared by the Victorian state government, which anticipated an increase in the state's population from 6.5 million in 2018 to 11.2 million by 2056. However, this growth comes with challenges, including pressures on social and ecological systems, infrastructure, and service provisions.
In contrast, many regional and rural areas in Australia are facing shrinking and ageing populations. This disparity between metropolitan regions and other parts of the state highlights the need for a more balanced settlement structure and spatial development planning. The "Planning Strategy for South Australia" is one example of a regional plan that aims to address these challenges by maintaining and improving liveability, increasing competitiveness, and driving sustainability and resilience to climate change.
To effectively address the challenges associated with population growth and distribution, a multi-faceted approach is necessary. This includes considering alternative entry points to population debates, such as consumption, productive ageing, and urban planning. Additionally, there is a growing consensus that science should play a more significant role in informing policy decisions and community engagement on population-related issues. By bringing together researchers, policymakers, and communities, Australia can work towards shaping a vision for its future population that aligns with shared values such as equity, sustainability, opportunity, diversity, justice, and agency.
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Fertility, mortality, and migration trends
Australia's future population projections are based on current long-term trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the cohort-component method to produce population projections, which involves making assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, and applying them to a base population.
Fertility Trends
Future trends in fertility are a key determinant of Australia's future population size, structure, and growth. Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (TFR of 1.75 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.6), and lower fertility (1.45). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is expected to continue until 2027, but at a slower rate, and remain constant thereafter. The sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.
Mortality Trends
While specific mortality rate assumptions for Australia's future population projections are not explicitly mentioned, the cohort-component method used by the ABS considers mortality trends. These trends likely include factors such as life expectancy and age-specific mortality rates, which would impact the projected population for each year.
Migration Trends
Migration, both overseas and internal, is another crucial factor in Australia's population projections. The inclusion of a zero net overseas migration assumption in the population projections increases the total number of available projections and provides a more realistic view of the possible future size, distribution, and age structure of Australia's population.
Over the next three decades, Australia's large cities are expected to experience significant population growth, while many regional areas will likely face shrinking and ageing populations. Official projections for the state of Victoria, for example, expected the state's population to increase from 6.5 million in 2018 to 11.2 million by 2056.
In summary, Australia's future population challenges are closely tied to fertility, mortality, and migration trends. By analyzing and understanding these trends, policymakers can make informed decisions about infrastructure investments and service provisions to address the challenges associated with a changing and growing population.
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Infrastructure and service provisions
Decisions about infrastructure investments and service provisions in Australia are informed by official population projections. These projections are prepared at the national, state, and territory levels. For instance, the nationwide official population projections based on the 2016 census, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in 2018, sparked a debate about the challenges resulting from a rapidly growing Australian population. In response, the then-Coalition government published "Planning for Australia's Future Population".
The publication of "Planning for Australia's Future Population" by the Coalition government was in response to an independent inquiry that recommended the preparation of a "national plan of settlement" and advocated for more robust land-use planning systems. This inquiry highlighted the need for a comprehensive strategy that addresses the challenges associated with a growing population and ensures that infrastructure and services can keep up with the demand.
However, there are concerns that the current plans and strategies do not adequately address the issue of shrinking and ageing populations in many rural and regional areas. Official projections prepared by the Victorian state government before the Covid-19 pandemic expected the state's population to increase from 6.5 million in 2018 to 11.2 million by 2056. While large cities experience major population growth, many regional areas will likely face declining and ageing populations. This disparity between metropolitan and regional areas calls for a more balanced settlement structure and spatial development planning.
To address these challenges, regional plans and corresponding policy documents have been developed, such as the Planning Strategy for South Australia. These plans aim to maintain and improve liveability, increase competitiveness, and drive sustainability and resilience to climate change. However, there is a lack of discussion on the specific policies needed to achieve these objectives in different parts of the region. A more nuanced approach is necessary to ensure that infrastructure and service provisions are tailored to the unique needs of each community.
Furthermore, community engagement and scientific input have been lacking in population policymaking. A national conversation, initiated by universities and researchers but inclusive of diverse communities across urban and rural Australia, could help address this gap. By bringing communities together to discuss their desired future and values, policymakers can better understand the specific needs and priorities of different regions. This bottom-up approach to policymaking ensures that infrastructure and service provisions are designed with the input and consent of those they aim to serve.
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Regional planning and development
Australia's regional areas are expected to experience shrinking and ageing populations in the coming decades. This presents a challenge to regional planning and development, as the traditional "growth-at-all-cost" mindset may no longer be sustainable. Regional plans and policies must aim to maintain and improve liveability, increase competitiveness, and drive sustainability and resilience to climate change.
One example of a regional planning framework is the "Planning Strategy for South Australia", which includes objectives such as improving liveability and increasing sustainability. However, these plans often lack region-specific information and policies, making it challenging to tailor strategies to the unique needs of different areas.
To address these challenges, official population projections are used to inform infrastructure investments and service provisions in Australia's states and territories. These projections consider factors such as fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration trends to anticipate future population needs. For instance, the Victorian state government projected that the state's population would increase to 11.2 million by 2056, requiring appropriate planning and development to accommodate this growth.
Additionally, there have been calls for a "national plan of settlement" and stronger land-use planning systems to guide the development of cities and regions effectively. This includes considerations of spatial development and addressing imbalances between metropolitan and other regions.
Overall, regional planning and development in Australia must adapt to the changing demographic landscape, incorporating strategies to address population ageing, shrinking regions, and the need for sustainable and resilient communities.
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Science and community engagement
Australia's future population is a topic that warrants a national conversation involving scientists, communities, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Science and community engagement are crucial in shaping a vision for Australia's future and addressing the challenges posed by a growing and changing population.
Firstly, science has a vital role in informing policy decisions and providing solutions to complex problems. Scientists can contribute valuable insights and research to the discussion, helping to identify and address the challenges facing Australia. For example, scientific expertise in fields such as economics, social sciences, ecology, biology, and technology can shed light on how population trajectories may impact social and natural environments. However, it has been noted that science and scientists have been relatively absent from debates on Australia's future population. Increasing scientific engagement can help ensure that decisions are informed by evidence and research, rather than solely by values and opinions.
Secondly, community engagement is essential for understanding the values and aspirations of Australians from diverse backgrounds. By facilitating conversations at a grassroots community level, across urban and rural areas, policymakers and scientists can gain insights into the priorities and concerns of different communities. This engagement ensures that decisions about the future are not made in isolation but are instead guided by the collective vision and input of the Australian people. Furthermore, community engagement can help translate scientific insights into actionable policies and initiatives that reflect the values and needs of the community.
To promote effective science and community engagement, several strategies can be employed. Firstly, universities and research institutions can take a leading role in initiating and facilitating national conversations. They can provide platforms and forums for discussions, bringing together experts, community leaders, and the public. Secondly, the use of media and communication channels can help disseminate information and engage a broader audience. This includes the use of traditional media, social media, and online platforms to share research findings, host discussions, and gather feedback. Additionally, community organisations and local governments can play a vital role in reaching underserved and rural communities, ensuring that the conversation is inclusive and representative of all Australians.
Through robust science and community engagement, Australia can address critical questions about its future population. By bringing together scientific expertise and community insights, the nation can navigate challenges related to social and ecological systems, urban planning, consumption, and productive ageing. This collaborative approach will help shape a vision for Australia's future that aligns with the values and aspirations of its diverse communities.
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Frequently asked questions
The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses the cohort-component method, which involves making assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration rates and applying them to a base population to obtain a projected population for the following year.
Australia will face challenges such as increased pressure on social and ecological systems, spatial imbalances between metropolitan and rural regions, and ageing populations in rural areas.
Australia can prepare by encouraging community engagement and incorporating scientific insights into policy-making. This includes considering alternative perspectives beyond traditional "growth-at-all-cost" mindsets and addressing spatial imbalances through improved urban planning.
