Damon Mcknight
Australia's population is growing, with an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2022. The population is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. This growth is driven by two main factors: overseas migration and a natural population increase. Cities, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, are growing faster than regional areas, drawing in more than half of the nation's overseas migration intake. However, First Nations people have a younger age profile and a higher growth rate than non-Indigenous people. Additionally, Australia is facing a shift towards an ageing population, with children expected to be outnumbered by those aged 65 and over within the next ten years.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth driven by overseas migration
Australia's population growth is largely driven by overseas migration, a trend that has been consistent since 2005, except during the COVID-19 border closures. The nation's population has grown at a historically high rate since the reopening of international borders. While the short-term increase in net overseas migration is expected to decline in the coming years, immigration will remain the primary contributor to Australia's population growth.
Sydney and Melbourne are the top destinations for international movers, attracting more than half of the nation's overseas migration intake. Melbourne recorded the largest increase of 142,600 people, while Perth had the highest growth rate of 3.1%. Regional Australia also experienced notable growth, with an increase of 113,800 people, or 1.3%.
The concentration of population growth in cities has resulted in vital infrastructure developments, including transportation, housing, education, healthcare, and employment opportunities. However, this trend also reinforces the challenge of population decentralisation, as cities continue to offer the most attractive opportunities for migrants.
Overseas migration is crucial in offsetting the adverse effects of an ageing population in Australia. By 2054, deaths are projected to outnumber births, and without immigration, the population would start declining much earlier than expected. Additionally, migration helps maintain a robust workforce, which is essential for economic sustainability as Australia transitions to a nation with a predominantly middle-aged and older population by 2065.
Australia competes with other countries, including Germany, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to attract desirable migrants. The country's migration patterns have shifted, with a significant number of people now migrating from India and China, rather than traditional sources like the UK.
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Ageing population and declining birth rates
Australia's population is ageing, with the median age increasing from 30 to 37 in just three decades. This is largely due to increased longevity, rather than declining births. In fact, Australia experienced a baby boom in the 2020s, with the number of births setting new records every year of the decade, exceeding 300,000 births annually since 2008. This is almost twice as many births as Australia experienced in 1946, the year the first Baby Boomers were born.
However, the fertility rate has been declining in recent years. In 2023, the total fertility rate was 1.50 births per woman, a record low. This is a decrease from a fertility rate of 1.9 in the early 2010s. The fertility rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women was higher, at 2.17 births per woman. While Australia is experiencing a baby boom, this is largely driven by the First Nations population, who have a younger age profile and higher growth rate than non-Indigenous people. They also have a higher fertility rate, reflecting the enduring discrimination they face in Australian society.
The ageing population and declining birth rates have significant implications for Australia's future. By 2034, it is projected that children will be outnumbered by people over the age of 65. This will have economic consequences, as a healthy and robust workforce is crucial to sustainability. Increasing women's participation in paid work has been one response to the ageing workforce. However, this fails to address the gender bias in unpaid care work, placing pressure on women.
To maintain population growth and a robust workforce, migration will be essential. Most of Australia's population growth is from overseas migration, and without it, the population would begin to decline. Australia competes with other countries to attract migrants, particularly from India and China. Migration helps to offset the adverse consequences of an ageing population and contributes to cultural diversity. However, it is important to note that migration patterns may change, and Australia can no longer rely solely on migration from countries like the UK.
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Urbanisation and city population growth
Australia has been one of the most urbanized countries globally since the 1960s, with an urbanization rate of over 80%. In 2023, the rate reached 86.62%, the highest in its history. This is due to the high rates of immigration since the 20th century, with immigrants settling in coastal, urban areas. Despite this, Australia's large geographic size means it has a low population density.
Australia's population has grown at a historically high rate since the reopening of international borders during COVID-19. Most of this growth is from overseas migration, as has been the case since 2005 (except during COVID border closures). While net overseas migration is expected to decline in the coming years, immigration will continue to be the primary driver of population growth.
The urban population in Australia has increased from 58% of the total population in 1911 to 90% in 2021. Cities in Australia continue to grow faster than regional areas, with Sydney and Melbourne attracting more than half of the nation's overseas migration intake. By 2036, it is projected that Melbourne will be Australia's largest capital city. This is due to Sydney's considerable population moving to live in other parts of the country.
The capitals grew by 427,800 people (2.4%) in 2023-24. Capital city growth comprised overseas migration (373,000), natural increase (89,500), and internal migration (-34,600). Melbourne had the largest increase (142,600), and Perth had the highest growth rate (3.1%).
Australia's population in 2022 was 26 million, and it is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. The current ten-year average annual growth rate is 1.4%, but it is expected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%. The median age is projected to increase, and the population will consist predominantly of middle-aged and older people by 2065.
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First Nations people's higher growth rate
Australia's population has been growing at a historically high rate since the reopening of international borders during COVID-19. Most of this growth is due to overseas migration, which has been the primary contributor to population increase since 2005 (except during COVID border closures). However, immigration is projected to decline in the coming years, and by 2054, deaths are expected to outnumber births. Thus, without immigration, Australia's population would begin to shrink.
First Nations peoples, who make up 3.8% of the total Australian population as of 2021, have a younger age profile and a higher growth rate than non-Indigenous people. They also have a lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality rate, reflecting the enduring discrimination faced by this group. In 2021, the median age of First Nations people was 24, compared to 38.5 years for the total Australian population. Additionally, the fertility rate for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women was 2.17 births per woman, compared to 1.50 births per woman for all Australian women.
The proportion of First Nations people in Australia has been increasing over time. In 2001, they represented 2.4% of the population, rising to 3.8% in 2021. This increase may be partly due to changing identification in the Census and greater participation in the 2021 Census. First Nations people are more likely to live in urban and regional areas than remote areas, with 84.6% residing in non-remote areas as of 2021. However, the proportion of First Nations people in the total population increases with remoteness, from 2.2% in major cities to 47.1% in very remote areas.
First Nations people in Australia consist of two distinct groups: Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders. These groups are further divided into hundreds of ethnic groups, each with its own unique set of languages, histories, and cultural traditions. While First Nations people share some common issues, such as health and welfare disparities, their experiences vary depending on whether they live in big cities, the Torres Strait, or remote communities.
Addressing the health and social inequalities faced by First Nations people is crucial. Recurring themes from First Nations health policy and research include health inequalities, housing, education, employment, income, and access to adequate healthcare and other services. The Black Lives Matter protests have helped bring attention to these issues. Additionally, cultural factors such as Country, knowledge, beliefs, language, self-determination, family, and cultural expression can positively influence the health and well-being of First Nations people.
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Economic sustainability and workforce participation
Australia is a highly developed country with a mixed economy. As of 2023, it was the 14th-largest national economy by nominal GDP, the 19th-largest by PPP-adjusted GDP, the 21st-largest goods exporter, and the 24th-largest goods importer. Australia has a strong economic relationship with East and Southeast Asian countries, particularly China, its main import and export partner.
Australia's economic resilience is demonstrated by its ability to avoid a technical recession for 103 consecutive quarters since 2017, the longest run of uninterrupted GDP growth in the developed world. In 2021, its GDP was estimated at $1.98 trillion, with the service sector comprising 62.7% of the GDP and employing 78.8% of the labour force. The country's resilience is further evidenced by its ability to sustain GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, largely due to government stimulus spending, proximity to China's booming economy, and the mining boom.
To maintain economic sustainability, Australia must address critical challenges, such as stabilising the climate and transitioning to a circular economy. The country is well-positioned to capitalise on the global shift towards renewable energy and resource efficiency. Philanthropy and charitable organisations also play a crucial role in driving economic transformation and promoting environmentally sustainable practices.
Workforce participation in Australia remains strong, with an estimated participation rate of 67.0% as of April 2025. The labour force survey also revealed an increase in employment to 14,622,100, while the underemployment rate rose to 6.0%. Australia has historically relied on large-scale immigration to meet its labour demands, particularly after the end of convict transportation to the eastern mainland in 1840.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, Australia's population is growing. In 2022, Australia's population was 26 million, and it is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071.
Australia's population growth is mainly driven by overseas migration. Since the reopening of international borders during COVID-19, the country has experienced historically high population growth rates. Natural population increase, or the number of births versus deaths, also contributes to population growth, but this rate is declining.
No, cities in Australia are growing faster than regional areas. Sydney and Melbourne attract more than half of the nation's overseas migration intake. By 2036, Melbourne is projected to be the largest capital city in Australia. However, it is important to note that not all populations in Australia have the same demographics. For example, First Nations people have a younger age profile and a higher growth rate than non-Indigenous people.
