The Unconquerable Conflict: Afghanistan's Enduring War

The war in Afghanistan has been described as unwinnable by many experts and politicians. After 20 years of conflict, the United States has withdrawn from the country, leaving behind a trail of destruction and political instability. The goal of defeating Al-Qaeda and the Taliban quickly and decisively was not achieved, and the conflict dragged on for nearly two decades. Afghanistan's location, terrain, and diverse ethnic groups make it a challenging place to wage war, and foreign powers have often struggled to exert their influence in the region. With a history of competing foreign interests and a constant state of political upheaval, the war in Afghanistan has proven to be a complex and challenging conflict with no clear resolution in sight.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The invasion, known as Operation Enduring Freedom, began on October 7, 2001, with air strikes on 31 targets across Afghanistan. The US was joined by the UK, and later by a large multinational force, including Afghanistan's local Northern Alliance. The invasion made rapid progress, and within two months, the coalition had captured Kabul and toppled the Taliban government. However, most members of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban were not captured, and during the Battle of Tora Bora, several fighters, including Osama bin Laden, escaped into neighbouring Pakistan.

The invasion was also supported by special forces on the ground. On September 26, a CIA team called Jawbreaker arrived in Afghanistan and initiated a strategy for overthrowing the Taliban regime. They were soon joined by US and British special forces, who provided arms, equipment, and advice to the Afghans. The special forces also helped coordinate targeting for the air campaign.

The invasion was largely successful in its initial goals, and by December 2001, the Taliban had lost control of Kabul and Kandahar, their spiritual home. However, the war would continue for nearly two more decades, becoming the longest war in US history.

The Taliban's resurgence and US counterinsurgency

The Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan can be attributed to several factors, including the withdrawal of most foreign forces, the comparative lack of interest from the international community, and the exploitation of governance failures at the central and local levels.

The Taliban's resurgence was facilitated by support from Pakistan, which provided the group with a safe haven and allowed them to regroup and rebuild their strength. The group was also emboldened by the international community's focus on other global crises, such as those in Syria, Iraq, or Ukraine.

The Afghan security forces lacked critical resources, such as air power and reconnaissance, and were unable to effectively counter the Taliban's offensive. The political infighting and apparent weakness in governance at different levels were also exploited by the Taliban, who expanded their governance in the areas they controlled and attempted to build local-level legitimacy.

The Taliban's resurgence was also due to the withdrawal of most foreign forces from Afghanistan, which reduced the risk of being bombed and raided. In addition, the group was further strengthened by the influx of militants from Pakistan, where the Pakistani military's operations had dislodged thousands of Islamist militants.

The US and its allies had initially succeeded in toppling the Taliban regime and driving them out of major population centers. However, the Taliban regrouped and launched a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. The insurgents waged asymmetric warfare, employing guerrilla tactics in the countryside, suicide attacks on urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators.

The US-led coalition forces remained in Afghanistan, forming a security mission sanctioned by the United Nations, with the goal of creating a new democratic authority in the country and preventing the Taliban from returning to power. However, the Taliban reorganized under their founder, Mullah Omar, and began to regain control of large parts of Afghanistan.

The US and its allies attempted to counter the Taliban's resurgence with additional troops and resources, but the insurgency remained resilient. The Taliban adapted their tactics, adopting suicide bombings and roadside bombs, which resulted in high civilian casualties and undermined support for the US-led coalition.

The US shifted its strategy to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, which involved protecting the population from Taliban attacks and supporting reintegration efforts. However, this approach largely failed to achieve its aims, and the Taliban continued to make territorial gains.

The US-Taliban peace talks

The Agreement

The US-Taliban agreement was signed in February 2020 and included a temporary reduction in violence and a plan to begin intra-Afghan negotiations. The US agreed to reduce its troops in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, with all troops leaving within 14 months if the Taliban followed through on its commitments. The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government and guaranteed that Afghanistan would not become a safe haven for terrorists.

Challenges to the Peace Process

The peace process is supported by a vast majority of Afghans, but there are many issues that need to be resolved during intra-Afghan negotiations, including power-sharing, disarming and reintegrating Taliban fighters, and determining the future of democratic institutions and the constitution. The process is complicated by a weak central government, ethnic and sectarian differences, and a history of failed negotiations.

The Role of the US

The US invaded Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks, which were carried out by Al-Qaeda. The Taliban, an Islamist fundamentalist group that ruled Afghanistan since 1996, provided refuge to Al-Qaeda and refused to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. The US-led forces quickly ousted the Taliban, but the group continued to wage an insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul. The US and NATO's mission then worked to bolster the Kabul government's authority and reconstruct Afghanistan, in addition to fighting the Taliban insurgency.

The Toll of the War

The war in Afghanistan has lasted nearly 20 years and has resulted in the deaths of more than 157,000 people, including more than 43,000 civilians and more than 2,400 Americans. It has also caused the displacement of millions of Afghans and is estimated to have cost the US $2 trillion.

The Way Forward

The fall of Kabul and the Taliban takeover

The Taliban's swift advance took many by surprise, including the United States Intelligence Community, which had estimated that Kabul would be taken at least six months after the withdrawal of US troops. However, the Taliban's ability to capitalise on the US-Taliban deal, the rapid disintegration of the Afghan National Security Forces, and the poor morale and leadership of the Afghan National Army all contributed to the fall of Kabul.

In the days leading up to the fall, panic and chaos gripped Kabul as residents rushed to the airport, destroying their IDs to avoid being targeted by the Taliban, and attempting to withdraw their savings from banks. The US Embassy was evacuated, with the American flag lowered and important documents burned. The Taliban's entry into Kabul was met with a mix of reactions, with some locals, especially women, fearful of the restoration of Taliban rule, while a minority celebrated the Taliban's advance.

The fall of Kabul marked a total victory for the Taliban and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under their control. It also signalled the end of the US-backed government and the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces, despite billions of dollars in training and aid from the US. The speed and ease of the Taliban's victory surprised US officials and allies, and highlighted the failures of the US-led war in Afghanistan.

The evacuation of Afghanistan and the end of the war

The evacuation of Afghanistan was a large-scale operation to airlift foreign citizens and vulnerable Afghan citizens from the country. The operation was carried out amid the withdrawal of US and NATO forces at the end of the 2001-2021 war in Afghanistan. The Taliban took control of Kabul and declared victory on 15 August 2021, and the NATO-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan collapsed.

The evacuation operations were one of the largest airlifts in history. Between 14 and 25 August, the US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport, including US citizens, Special Immigrant Visa applicants, and other vulnerable Afghans. In total, over 122,000 people were airlifted abroad. The evacuation was completed on 30 August, one day before a deadline agreed upon with the Taliban.

The evacuation efforts became more urgent as the collapse of the Afghan government occurred sooner than intelligence projections had estimated. Several countries launched new evacuation operations, including Canada's Operation AEGIS, India's Operation Devi Shakti, and South Korea's Operation Miracle.

The evacuation was not without its challenges. There was panic among the civilian population as the Taliban seized the capital, with many citizens rushing to their homes or to the airport, which remained under NATO control after the Afghan government dissolved. A chaotic situation developed as thousands of fleeing Afghan civilians rushed to Kabul Airport, with hundreds crowding the apron in an attempt to catch flights out of the city. There were also reports of people falling from the undercarriage of planes immediately after takeoff.

The evacuation was also dangerous. On 26 August, an explosion occurred outside the Abbey Gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province (ISIL-K) claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed at least 170 people and wounded another 150. Despite the bombing, evacuation efforts resumed soon afterward.

The evacuation of Afghanistan was a massive undertaking that involved the coordination of multiple countries and organizations. It was carried out under challenging and dangerous circumstances but ultimately succeeded in evacuating over 122,000 people to safety.

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