The Evolving Afghanistan War: Strategies, Challenges, And Unknown Outcomes

The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing since 2001, making it the United States' longest war. In February 2020, the U.S. and the Taliban signed a peace agreement that could pave the way for an American military withdrawal. However, the war has resulted in a heavy toll, with over 3,500 U.S. and NATO troops killed and tens of thousands wounded. The financial cost to the American taxpayer is estimated to be over $2 trillion. Despite the agreement, the Taliban escalated their attacks in December, and the U.S. has increased its reliance on airpower and bombing. The Afghan government is in a political deadlock, and the overall political settlement remains problematic. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is complex and challenging, and the future of the country remains uncertain.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The Taliban had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, the terrorist network responsible for the 9/11 attacks. The stated goal of the invasion was to dismantle al-Qaeda and deny Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the Taliban government.

The invasion, known as Operation Enduring Freedom, began on October 7, 2001, with air strikes on 31 targets across the country. The coalition consisted of American, British, Canadian, and Australian forces, with other countries providing logistical support. The invasion made rapid progress, and the coalition captured Kabul on November 13, toppling the Taliban by December 17. However, most members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban were not captured, and during the Battle of Tora Bora, several fighters, including Osama bin Laden, escaped into neighbouring Pakistan.

The invasion led to the formation of a new government in Afghanistan, with Hamid Karzai selected to lead the Afghan Interim Administration. The United Nations Security Council also established the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to oversee military operations in Afghanistan and train the new Afghan National Security Forces.

The invasion marked the beginning of the 20-year-long War in Afghanistan, and the US military presence continued to bolster the Northern Alliance, which had been locked in a losing fight with the Taliban during the Afghan Civil War. The Taliban soon launched an insurgency against the American-led war effort, and protracted fighting continued for the next two decades.

The rise of the Taliban

The Taliban, meaning "students" or "seekers of knowledge" in Pashto, first emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. The movement, predominantly Pashtun, first appeared in religious seminaries, or madrassas, mostly funded by Saudi Arabia, preaching a hardline form of Sunni Islam.

The Taliban's initial promise was to bring peace and security and enforce Sharia law, or Islamic law, once in power. They quickly gained support from local Durrani Pashtun leaders and ordinary Afghans who were tired of the corruption, brutality, and incessant fighting among Mujahideen warlords.

A small Taliban militia first emerged near Kandahar in the spring and summer of 1994, committing vigilante acts against minor warlords, with funding from local businessmen. They soon began to receive backing from Pashtun leaders and thousands of Afghan students from madrassas in Pakistani refugee camps. The students, mostly between 14 and 24 years old, lacked a broad education and were ignorant of their country's history, tribal and cultural context, and ethnic diversity. The Taliban offered these young men a sense of purpose and a way of life centred around a strict interpretation of Islam.

The Taliban's first major military action took place in October-November 1994 when they marched from Maiwand in southern Afghanistan and captured Kandahar City and the surrounding provinces, losing only a few dozen men. They received aid from either private Pakistani trucking interests or the Pakistani government for their first military breakthroughs.

After capturing Herat in September 1995, the Taliban controlled all of southern Afghanistan. In the following three months, this previously "unknown force" took control of twelve of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, with Mujahideen warlords often surrendering without a fight. In the spring of 1996, Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, held a gathering of over a thousand Pashtun leaders in Kandahar—the largest gathering of religious leaders in modern Afghan history.

The Taliban then launched a surprise attack on Jalalabad in August 1996 and soon after, on September 26, captured the capital city of Kabul, overthrowing the regime of President Burhanuddin Rabbani, one of the founding fathers of the Afghan Mujahideen. Within a day, every government building and military base in Kabul was occupied. The capture of Kabul brought the Taliban a new level of prestige, and by 1998, they controlled almost 90% of Afghanistan.

The Taliban imposed a harsh interpretation of Sharia law, banning a wide range of activities, including employment, education, and sports for women; movies; television; music; dancing; hanging pictures in homes; clapping during sports events; kite flying; and beard trimming. Punishments under the Taliban regime included amputation for theft, public execution for rape and murder, and stoning to death for adultery. Women were forced to wear the burqa, a full-body covering with a small screen, and were prohibited from working, receiving an education, travelling without a male chaperone, and leaving their homes without a "close male relative" (mahram).

The Taliban also committed ethnic massacres and persecuted certain ethnic groups, notably the Hazaras, a mostly Shia ethnic group. In 1998, the Taliban swept through Mazar-i-Sharif, a city predominantly inhabited by Hazaras and Uzbeks, killing more than 8,000 non-combatants. They also massacred Hazara villagers and pushed out Tajik farmers.

In 2001, the Taliban gained international infamy when they destroyed two ancient statues of Buddhas in Bamiyan, despite international outrage and pleas to preserve these cultural artifacts.

The Taliban's first stint in power ended in 2001 when a US-led military coalition invaded Afghanistan following the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks. The Taliban regime quickly collapsed, and US and NATO forces remained in Afghanistan for nearly two decades. However, the Taliban regrouped and waged a twenty-year insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul.

In 2020, the Taliban struck a deal with the Americans for US troops to withdraw in exchange for a pledge to prevent al-Qaeda and other militants from operating in Taliban-controlled areas and to engage in national peace talks. However, the peace talks never took place, and in 2021, the Taliban rapidly advanced across Afghanistan, seizing province after province, and ultimately recapturing Kabul on August 15, 2021, as foreign forces withdrew and the Afghan military collapsed.

The human cost of the war

Since the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the conflict has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians. According to estimates, over 70,000 Afghan civilians have been killed as a direct result of the war, with many more perishing due to indirect causes such as disease, malnutrition, and lack of access to healthcare and infrastructure. The war has also taken a heavy toll on the country's security forces, with approximately 66,000 Afghan military and police personnel losing their lives.

The conflict has left deep scars on the survivors, with two-thirds of Afghans suffering from mental health issues, according to a 2009 report by the Afghan Ministry of Public Health. The war has also caused widespread displacement, with over 2.2 million Afghans living as refugees in Iran and Pakistan, and countless others internally displaced within the country.

The impact of the war extends beyond human lives. Afghanistan's economy, public health infrastructure, and education system have all but collapsed, leaving the country in a state of crisis. The war has also exacerbated existing problems such as poverty, malnutrition, and environmental degradation, pushing the country to the brink of famine.

The US military's actions have also contributed significantly to civilian casualties. In 2017, the US military relaxed its rules of engagement for airstrikes, resulting in a dramatic increase in civilian deaths. Additionally, the CIA's arming and funding of Afghan militia groups have led to serious human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings of civilians.

The human toll of the Afghanistan War extends beyond the country's borders. Hundreds of Pakistani civilians have been killed in US drone strikes and crossfire between militants and the Pakistani military.

The war has also taken a toll on US service members and their families. Over 2,400 US troops have been killed, with tens of thousands more wounded and suffering from physical and mental health issues.

The true human cost of the Afghanistan War may never be fully quantified, but it has undoubtedly caused immeasurable suffering and devastation for generations of Afghans and those caught in the crossfire.

The financial cost of the war

The human cost of the war has also been high, with thousands of US service members and civilians killed or wounded. The war has also had a devastating impact on Afghanistan, with tens of thousands of civilians killed and millions displaced. The country now has one of the largest refugee populations in the world.

The economic costs of the war extend beyond direct war-fighting costs. Spending on the war has involved opportunity costs, as money that could have been invested in other areas such as healthcare or infrastructure. The war has also had macroeconomic effects, such as raising consumer interest rates.

The total cost of the war is likely to continue to grow, with ongoing costs such as medical care for veterans. Harvard University scholar Linda Bilmes estimates that the cost of care for veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars could add about $2 trillion to the overall cost by 2050.

The Doha agreement

The agreement was not without its challenges and critics. One major point of contention was the ability of the US to maintain some forces in Afghanistan. Washington argued that a small number of troops were required to counter future terrorist threats, while the Taliban insisted that all foreign forces had to depart. The Taliban also pledged to prevent al-Qaeda and other militant groups from using Afghan territory to plan and launch attacks against the US or its allies. However, many experts were sceptical of the Taliban's sincerity, and the group's ability to honour this commitment was questioned following the Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021.

Another challenge arose around the release of prisoners. The Doha Agreement stipulated that the Afghan government would release 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the start of intra-Afghan talks, in exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban. However, the Afghan government disputed this, with President Ashraf Ghani stating that the release of prisoners was the authority of the government and not the US, and that a prisoner exchange could not be a prerequisite for talks. This dispute led to delays in the intra-Afghan negotiations, which were scheduled to begin on 10 March 2020 in Oslo, Norway.

Despite these challenges, the Doha Agreement was seen as a critical step towards ending the war in Afghanistan and bringing US troops home. However, the war in Afghanistan continued beyond the withdrawal deadline of 1 May 2021, with the remaining US soldiers being withdrawn by 31 August 2021.

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