Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia's winter, which runs from June to August, has been a mixed bag so far in 2023. The season began with a series of cold fronts and higher-than-average rainfall in the south, causing flash floods in South Australia. However, overall, the winter has been unusually warm, with temperatures 1.53 °C above the 1961-1990 average, making it the warmest on record. This has resulted in below-average snowfall, causing ski resorts to postpone their opening days and, in some cases, end the season early. Northern Australia has experienced unusually high amounts of rainfall, while precipitation levels in coastal suburban areas have been below average.
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What You'll Learn
Record-breaking temperatures
The 2023 Australian winter was the warmest on record, with an average of 1.53 °C above the 1961–1990 average. Queensland experienced its warmest June on record, and in July, most of Tasmania and south-eastern Australia also saw their warmest July ever. In August, the national mean maximum temperature was the second highest on record, with daytime temperatures ranking in the top 10% of historical observations across most of the country.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) official winter outlook for 2023 predicted that maximum and minimum temperatures would very likely exceed the average recorded between 1981 and 2018. This was attributed to the El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena.
The 2024 winter forecast also predicts a very warm winter for Australia, with large swathes of the country expected to experience daytime and night-time temperatures in the top 20% of all records. This includes parts of Western Australia, Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania, and southern South Australia.
While Australia typically experiences relatively mild winters due to its geographical location, the country has been witnessing increasingly warm winters in recent years. This trend is consistent with the global phenomenon of rising temperatures caused by climate change.
In addition to the record-breaking temperatures, Australia's 2023 winter also saw some notable variations in precipitation levels. While coastal suburban areas experienced below-average rainfall, north-central Australia received well above-average rainfall. Overall, the country showed slightly above-average precipitation, with snowfall in the Australian Alps starting off slow but eventually peaking at 131 cm in July.
The combination of warm temperatures and varying precipitation levels impacted the ski season, with several resorts postponing their opening days due to low snowfall at the start of the season.
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Rainfall and flooding
Australia's 2023 winter was marked by rainfall and flooding. The season began on June 22 at the winter solstice and ended with the September equinox on September 23.
June brought cold fronts and high levels of rainfall, particularly in South Australia, which recorded between 50 and 80 mm of rain in Adelaide Hills. This led to flash flooding in some areas, with South Australia experiencing its highest daily rainfall totals in over a century. Northern Australia also received unusually high amounts of rainfall, averaging from 10 to 70 mm daily, while these regions typically receive less than 50 mm during the winter.
The rainfall and cold fronts continued into July, with a strong cold front and a deep low-pressure system causing significantly below-average temperatures in southeast Australia. This resulted in powerful winds and high rainfall exceeding 40 mm in parts of Tasmania and Victoria, leading to flooding warnings in these regions.
While some areas experienced above-average rainfall, other parts of Australia faced dry conditions during the lead-up to winter in 2023. For example, residents of some towns in southwest Western Australia experienced water shortages due to a lack of rainfall over several months. Similarly, South Australia faced dry conditions, with Adelaide recording low rainfall levels in the months preceding winter.
Overall, the 2023 winter season in Australia showed slightly above-average precipitation, with precipitation levels just over 1.6% above the mean.
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Ski season delays
The 2023 Australian winter was the warmest on record, with an average of 1.53 °C above the 1961–1990 average. The winter began on June 22 and concluded on September 23. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had predicted that maximum and minimum temperatures would likely exceed the 1981-2018 average.
The 2023 ski season experienced delays due to far-below-average snowfall in the early parts of June. All of the Australian ski resorts had to postpone their opening day. However, a series of cold fronts in the latter half of June brought some relief, with Mt Hotham receiving 40 cm of snow on June 18. From June 19-20, 30-35 cm of snow was recorded, and from June 22-27, this increased to between 55-80 cm.
On July 7 and 8, a strong cold front and a deep low-pressure system affected south-east Australia, resulting in significantly below-average temperatures. This front brought over 20 cm of snow to the alpine regions, and snowmaking conditions were favourable. However, the remainder of July brought drier conditions due to high-pressure systems.
The 2023 ski season faced challenges due to below-average snowfall and unseasonably warm temperatures, with many runs on some mountains forced to close prematurely. The season ended earlier than previous years, impacting the seasonal skiing industries in several areas, including Thredbo, Cabramurra, Perisher, Mount Hotham, and Mount Buller.
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Cold fronts and snowstorms
Australia's winter, which typically lasts from June to August, has seen its fair share of cold fronts and snowstorms so far this year. While the country generally experiences a relatively mild winter due to its geographical location, there are still occasional periods of cold weather and snowfall, particularly in the southern regions.
In the lead-up to winter this year, Australia experienced a number of mild cold fronts, notably in early March and May. As winter began in June, these cold fronts intensified, bringing higher levels of rainfall, storms, strong winds, and even some snow. South Australia was particularly affected, recording between 50 and 80 mm of rainfall in the Adelaide Hills, leading to flash flooding.
The ski season, however, faced challenges due to the low snowfall during the early parts of June. Resorts had to postpone their opening days, and it wasn't until the latter half of the month that conditions improved. From June 19-20, some resorts received 30-35 cm of snow, and from June 22-27, they received between 55-80 cm. Mt Hotham, for example, received 40 cm of snow on June 18.
July brought a strong cold front to southeast Australia, causing temperatures to drop significantly. This cold front also brought powerful winds, high rainfall, and over 20 cm of snow to the alpine regions. Despite these wintery conditions, the overall trend for the 2023 Australian winter was warmer temperatures, with an average of 1.53 °C above the 1961-1990 mean.
While Australia does experience wintery conditions, including snowfall in certain regions, it is important to note that the country's winter is generally milder than that of the northern continents due to its separation from the polar regions by the Southern Ocean.
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Climate outlook for July-September
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has predicted that the maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2023 winter season are very likely to exceed the average recorded between 1981 and 2018. This forecast is largely due to the influence of El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The winter season in Australia typically lasts from June to August, with the meteorological winter ending on 31 August.
The 2023 Australian winter was marked by a series of cold fronts and higher-than-average levels of precipitation in some regions. South Australia experienced significant rainfall, leading to flash flooding in some areas. The ski season was impacted by below-average snowfall, resulting in postponed opening days for resorts. Northern Australia received unusually high amounts of rainfall, deviating from the typical dry season conditions.
Looking ahead to the July-September period, there is an increased chance of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures across much of Australia. The likelihood of above-average temperatures exceeds 60% in the far south and tropical north regions. Above-average minimum temperatures are expected across most of Australia, with chances exceeding 70% in the far north and south.
In terms of rainfall, there is a weak forecast signal for most of the southeast, southwest, and eastern coastline. This includes areas in the far southeast of South Australia, western and central Victoria, Tasmania, and western parts of Western Australia. These regions have experienced prolonged dry conditions. While there is no strong indication of unusually wet or dry conditions, there is a 60 to 70% chance of below-average rainfall in small parts of southwestern Western Australia, western Tasmania, and central to eastern Victoria. This trend is most prominent in July.
It is important to note that Australia's winter temperatures are generally milder compared to the northern continents due to its geographical separation from polar regions. The transition between seasons is more pronounced in inland areas, particularly west of the Great Dividing Range.
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Frequently asked questions
So far, the winter in Australia has been warmer than usual, with temperatures predicted to be 1.53 °C above the 1961-1990 average. Queensland experienced its warmest June on record, and in July, most of Tasmania and south-eastern Australia also saw their warmest July ever.
The unusual warmth has impacted the ski industry, with resorts having to postpone their opening days due to low snowfall. There have also been flash floods in some areas, such as South Australia, which received between 50 and 80mm of rainfall in the Adelaide Hills.
Typically, Australian winters are relatively mild compared to the northern hemisphere, with average minimum temperatures dipping to around 5 °C (41 °F). However, there can be frosty nights and colder temperatures in inland and southern regions.
