The Rising Tide: Belize's Submerging Shorelines

Belize is extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels, with a very flat coastline and much of its land mass in the north at or slightly below sea level. According to Dr. Kenrick Leslie, Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), the sea is currently rising by about 3mm per year, which will have serious implications for the country's water supply. By the end of the century, it is projected that sea levels will have risen by more than 6 feet, and most of Belize City will be underwater. This does not even take into account the tides or a storm surge. The effects of climate change are already being felt in Belize, and the country is struggling to address the problem.

Belize's vulnerability to rising water levels

Belize is highly vulnerable to rising water levels. By 2100, the country's population is projected to reach 1 million, but substantial portions of Belize could be underwater due to rising sea levels. Sea levels are rising twice as fast as previously estimated, and projections indicate a rise of more than 6 feet by the end of the century. Belize's flat coastline and low-lying land mass mean that it will be impacted much more than neighbouring countries like Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.

Currently, the sea is rising by about 3 millimetres per year, which translates to 30 millimetres in a decade. This has implications for infrastructure, including airports, and the country's water supply. As inland waters become more saline, Belize will need to find alternative sources of freshwater.

By the end of the century, most of Belize City will be underwater, and this does not account for tides or storm surges. The country's offshore cayes, which are only 3 feet above sea level, will also be severely impacted. The rising water levels will affect hotels, municipal airports, and other infrastructure.

Belize has no control over sea levels, which are driven by factors such as the melting of ice caps in Antarctica due to high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement aims to address global warming and contain sea-level rise, but there are doubts about its effectiveness.

In addition to rising water levels, Belize also faces other environmental challenges, such as deforestation, which could exacerbate the situation. Proper land-use planning and addressing the problem of illegal cross-border clearing and agriculture are crucial steps in mitigating the impacts of climate change.

The impact on Belize's water supply

Belize is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, which are projected to increase by more than 6 feet by the end of the century. This will have serious implications for the country's water supply, as inland waters will become more saline. Currently, the national water network draws water from the Belize River area, but rising sea levels will require the network to find a source point further inland.

The increasing salinity of inland waters will impact the availability of potable water for drinking, cooking, and hygiene. It may also affect agricultural activities, requiring alternative sources of water for irrigation. The rising sea levels will also impact infrastructure, including airports, and tourism, as hotels and other tourist attractions may be submerged.

Belize's flat coastline and low-lying land mass mean that even a small rise in sea level can result in significant land submersion. For every millimeter rise in sea level, one meter of land is submerged. This means that by 2025, the water level is expected to rise by at least 3 more inches, and by 2050, it is projected to affect almost the entire Belize City and its surrounding areas.

To address the impact on the water supply, Belize will need to identify alternative freshwater sources and develop strategies to manage the increasing salinity of inland waters. This may include exploring desalination technologies or finding new sources of freshwater, such as groundwater reservoirs or rivers further inland. Additionally, proper land-use planning and addressing deforestation can help mitigate the effects of rising sea levels on the water supply.

The Green Climate Fund and other international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, provide opportunities for funding and collaboration to build resilience and adapt to the changing climate. However, it is essential for Belize to proactively develop and submit projects that can be funded under these initiatives to access the necessary resources.

The effect on Belize's infrastructure

Belize's flat coastline and low-lying land mass mean that the country is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. According to Dr Kenrick Leslie, Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), a sea level rise of 3mm per year would result in a metre of land being submerged every year. This has serious implications for Belize's infrastructure.

By 2100, large parts of the country are projected to be underwater, including most of Belize City, Placencia, and the country's municipal airports. The rising sea levels will also impact the country's water supply, as inland waters become more saline. The national water network will need to find a source point further inland.

Offshore cayes, hotels, and municipal airports will be severely impacted by rising sea levels. Even a rise of one foot would have severe consequences for the country's infrastructure.

The impact of rising sea levels on Belize's infrastructure will be felt disproportionately compared to neighbouring countries such as Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, which have more mountainous terrain.

The influence on Belize's economy

Belize is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, which are currently increasing at a rate of 3 millimetres per year. This is due to a combination of a flat coastline and the fact that much of the country's land mass in the north is at or slightly below sea level. As a result, rising sea levels are expected to have a significant impact on Belize's economy, which is heavily reliant on the tourism industry and natural resources such as water.

The tourism industry in Belize accounts for more than 38% of the country's gross domestic product and provides 50,000 jobs (34% of total employment). The country's coral reefs, cayes, and keys are major tourist attractions, particularly Ambergris Cay, Lighthouse Key, and Glover's Reef. However, rising sea levels, ocean erosion, and coral bleaching caused by elevated temperatures are threatening the viability of tourism in these areas. According to Zoe Dagan, a dive master at Glover's Reef, the shoreline has decreased, and the underwater bleaching events have not recovered. The Mesoamerican Barrier Reef, which includes the Belize Barrier Reef, has experienced a severe increase in bleaching stress levels, jumping from a 1.7 level between 1985-2014 to a 3 severe level in 2014-2017. This poses a significant threat to Belize's economy as the coral reefs are not only a global attraction but also fuel the country's tourism industry.

In addition to the direct impact on tourism, rising sea levels will also affect Belize's water supply. As inland waters become more saline, the national water network will need to find alternative sources further inland. This will have implications for infrastructure, including airports, and will likely increase the demand for natural resources.

To address these challenges, Belize has implemented initiatives to preserve its coral reefs and mitigate the impacts of climate change. The country has committed to reducing waste dumped into the ocean, preserving natural resources, promoting sustainable tourism practices, and regulating industries along its coastline. Additionally, Belize has signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to combat global warming and contain sea-level rise. However, there are doubts about whether the targets set in the agreement can be achieved.

The cost of inaction on climate change is significant. According to the 2017 Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card, the impacts of climate change on the Caribbean region have a social cost, affecting the quality of life of its residents. In the total Caribbean area, the cost of inaction is estimated to be 21.7% of the 2004 GDP by 2100. Therefore, while regulations and adaptations to address climate change may incur short-term costs, they are crucial for the long-term sustainability of Belize's economy.

How to address the problem

Belize is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, with its flat coastline and much of its land mass in the north at or slightly below sea level. According to Dr. Kenrick Leslie, Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), the sea is currently rising by about 3mm per year, which will result in a metre of land being submerged every decade. By the end of the century, the sea level is projected to rise by more than 6 feet, causing substantial portions of the country to be underwater. This will have serious implications for Belize's water supply, infrastructure, and economy.

• Addressing Climate Change: The root cause of rising sea levels is climate change, driven by high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Belize should continue to advocate for and support global efforts to address climate change, such as the Paris Agreement. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources can help mitigate the effects of climate change and slow down the rate of sea-level rise.
• Improving Land Use Planning: Proper land use planning is crucial to adapt to the changing environment. This includes enforcing regulations to protect designated areas from clearing and agriculture, especially in vulnerable coastal areas. Addressing issues such as deforestation and illegal logging can help reduce the country's vulnerability to rising water levels.
• Developing Resilient Infrastructure: Belize should invest in resilient infrastructure that can withstand rising water levels and potential flooding. This includes retrofitting existing infrastructure, such as airports, and considering the potential impact of rising water levels when planning new developments.
• Protecting Water Resources: As inland waters become more saline due to rising sea levels, it is crucial to identify new source points for the national water network that are further inland. Additionally, improving water management practices and addressing water scarcity issues can help ensure a stable water supply for the country.
• Building Climate Resilience: Belize should continue to seek funding and support from initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund to build resilience to climate change. This can include projects focused on water conservation, sustainable land use, and coastal protection.
• Regional Collaboration: Belize can benefit from collaboration with other Caribbean countries facing similar challenges. Sharing knowledge, resources, and best practices can help the region adapt to rising water levels and protect vulnerable communities.
• Education and Awareness: Raising awareness about the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise can help prepare communities for the changes ahead. Educating the public about sustainable practices, water conservation, and emergency preparedness can empower individuals to take action and reduce their vulnerability.

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