Damon Mcknight
Australia's population growth has been a topic of discussion and debate in recent years, with some describing it as a population panic. As of December 2023, Australia's population stood at 26,966,789 people, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This growth is primarily driven by overseas migration and natural increase, with the country's population projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. While some have expressed concerns about the impact of population growth on infrastructure and social cohesion, others argue that it is not the growth itself but inequality and political short-termism that are the real issues facing Australia.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth and migration
Australia's population growth is driven by a combination of natural increase and net overseas migration. In recent years, Australia's population growth rate has been among the highest in developed countries, although it is not the highest globally.
As of 30 September 2024, Australia's population was 27,309,396, with a quarterly growth of 115,027 people (0.4%) and an annual growth of 484,000 people (1.8%). The annual natural increase was 104,200, while net overseas migration contributed 379,800 people to the total. This growth is within historical norms, but it has also highlighted demographic challenges, particularly regarding inequality and housing.
Overseas migration has been a significant factor in Australia's population growth. After a period of low migration during the pandemic, migration numbers have been catching up in recent years. Western Australia and Queensland recorded positive interstate migration, with Queensland consistently attracting positive migration and Western Australia fluctuating with the mining industry. Victoria, New South Wales, and Western Australia also experienced high net overseas migration, with Victoria attracting the largest increase in capital city growth.
While migration has been a key driver of Australia's population growth, fertility rates have been declining. In 2021, the fertility rate was 1.7 births per woman, down from 3.1 births per woman in 1921. This decrease in fertility is a long-term trend, and it has implications for Australia's future population growth.
Population growth has become a politically charged topic in Australia, with some public figures and media outlets exploiting the issue to create "population panic" and scapegoat migrant communities for social and economic problems. However, experts caution against divisive language and argue that the focus should be on addressing inequality and investing in infrastructure to manage demographic changes effectively.
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Population growth and politics
Australia's population has been growing steadily, with an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2022, projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9% by 2071. The population stood at 26 million in 2022 and is expected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. This growth is driven by both natural increase and net overseas migration, with the latter playing a significant role in recent years.
Population growth has become a political issue in Australia, with some segments of the media and public figures contributing to what has been termed "population panic". This panic often centres around immigration, with a long history of migrant scapegoating by Australia's political class. However, experts like ANU demographer Liz Allen argue that the focus should be on addressing inequality and the lack of investment in vital infrastructure, rather than blaming population growth.
Allen highlights that Australia's population growth is within historical norms and that the real challenge lies in addressing inequality and housing issues. She attributes the lack of preparation for demographic changes to "political short-termism". This short-sightedness has resulted in a lack of cohesive planning for the future, impacting social cohesion in the face of a growing and changing population.
The impact of population growth on housing affordability and living standards has also been a concern for some Australians. There is a recognition that maintaining pre-COVID immigration levels is necessary to avoid a shock to the housing market and per-capita recession. However, others argue that Australia's economic reliance on population growth is unsustainable and contributes to the pressure on healthcare, education, and other services.
As Australia navigates population growth and its political implications, it is essential to approach demographic changes with caution and avoid divisive language. Addressing inequality, investing in infrastructure, and planning for the future are crucial steps in managing population growth sustainably and ensuring the country's long-term well-being.
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Population growth and economic model
Australia's population is growing, with an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2022, projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9% by 2071. In 2023, the population grew by 2.5% (660,000 people), the highest calendar-year growth ever recorded. This growth is primarily driven by net overseas migration, which stood at 379,800 in 2024, with the proportion of the population born outside Australia at 31.5%.
This population growth has led to concerns about its impact on housing, education, healthcare, and the economy. Some argue that Australia's economic model relies on population growth to sustain it, particularly to avoid a decline in the tax base. However, others worry about the implications of this reliance, including the potential for increased inequality and social cohesion challenges.
The Australian political landscape has a history of scapegoating migrant communities for problems beyond their control, and this continues to be a concern, with some media outlets exploiting population growth to create panic about migration. Despite these concerns, Australia's population growth is within historical norms, and the country faces demographic challenges that require long-term strategic planning and investment in infrastructure.
Population growth can impact the economy in several ways. A growing population can contribute to economic growth by increasing the labor force, creating a larger consumer base, and driving demand for goods and services. This can lead to higher tax revenues for the government, which can be reinvested in infrastructure and social services. However, if the growth is not managed well, it can also lead to strains on resources, increased competition for jobs, and a higher cost of living.
To ensure that population growth supports economic growth, it is crucial to invest in education and training to ensure the labor force has the skills needed to fill available jobs. Additionally, developing affordable housing options and improving healthcare infrastructure can help accommodate a larger population. Finally, encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship can help create new economic opportunities and ensure that the benefits of growth are shared across society.
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Population growth and housing
Australia's population growth is driven by overseas migration and natural increase, with the population projected to increase from 26 million in 2022 to between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. This growth has significant implications for housing, with some commentators expressing concern about the impact on living standards and housing affordability.
The impact of population growth on housing is twofold. Firstly, it increases the demand for housing, as each new household requires a place to live. This can lead to housing shortages and a subsequent rise in housing prices and rents, affecting housing affordability. Secondly, population growth can influence the type and location of housing developments. As cities expand and urbanise, there is a need for higher-density housing, such as apartments and townhouses, to accommodate more people within a limited land area. This can result in the redevelopment of suburban areas and changes to the urban landscape.
The relationship between population growth and housing also varies across different regions within Australia. For example, capital cities like Melbourne and Perth have experienced higher growth rates compared to other regions, with Melbourne recording the largest increase in population between 2023 and 2024. This has placed pressure on housing markets in these cities, potentially leading to urban sprawl and the development of new suburban areas.
Additionally, population growth can exacerbate existing inequalities and social cohesion, as highlighted by commentators discussing Australia's "population panic". The strain on housing resources can disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and households, leading to concerns about inequality and the potential for social unrest.
To mitigate the impact of population growth on housing, strategic planning and investment in infrastructure are crucial. This includes investing in the construction of new housing developments, improving housing affordability through subsidies or incentives, and developing vital infrastructure to support growing communities. By addressing these challenges, Australia can strive to ensure that its housing market can accommodate its growing population while maintaining social cohesion and living standards.
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Population growth by state
Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migration arrivals minus migration departures). As of 30 September 2024, Australia's population was 27,309,396, with a quarterly growth of 115,027 people (0.4%) and an annual growth of 484,000 people (1.8%). The annual natural increase was 104,200, and net overseas migration was 379,800.
All states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ending 30 September 2024. Western Australia had the fastest growth rate (2.5%), while Tasmania had the slowest (0.3%).
Western Australia
Western Australia had a population growth rate of 2.5% in the year ending September 2024. The state's population growth was driven primarily by net overseas migration.
Tasmania
Tasmania had the slowest population growth rate at 0.3% in the year ending September 2024. While specific data for this period is not available, Tasmania's population growth in previous years has been influenced by net interstate migration and natural increase.
New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia
While precise data for the year ending September 2024 is not available for these states, net overseas migration has been the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia.
Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory
The Northern Territory recorded a net undercount of 6.0% in the 2021 Census, while the Australian Capital Territory recorded a net overcount of -0.6%. The Northern Territory had the highest net undercount, while the Australian Capital Territory had a slight net overcount.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's population is growing at a rate of 2.5% per year.
The population growth is driven by net overseas migration, which was 379,800 in the year ending September 2024.
In 2016, Australia had the fifth-fastest population growth rate out of the 35 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). However, it is important to consider the total size, density, and demographic makeup of the population when comparing growth rates between countries.
Western Australia had the fastest population growth rate as a percentage at 3.31%. Queensland also consistently records positive interstate migration.
Australia's population growth has been associated with concerns about inequality, housing affordability, and social cohesion. There are also debates about the role of migration in driving population growth and its impact on living standards.
