The Iran-Afghanistan Dynamic: A Complex Relationship

Iran and Afghanistan have a long and complicated history. Despite strong religious and cultural ties and a shared border, the two countries have had a tumultuous relationship. Iran is a Shi'a-dominant country and has a history of ideological differences and political rivalry with the Afghan Taliban. In the past, Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, however, in recent years, Iran has changed its stance on the Taliban, recognizing that the Taliban would no longer persecute Shi'a Hazaras. Iran has also worked with the Taliban to counter the influence of the United States and the Islamic State in the region. The departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has been welcomed by Iran, but the collapse of the Afghan government and the rise of the Taliban have also created new challenges for Iran, including the potential reemergence of Sunni-Shia tensions and the influx of refugees. Iran's relationship with Afghanistan is complex and multifaceted, shaped by historical, religious, political, and strategic factors.

Iran's relationship with the Taliban

• Historical Rivalry: Iran, a predominantly Shiite country, has historically had ideological differences and political rivalry with the Sunni extremist Taliban. During the Taliban's rule in the late 1990s, Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, and tensions escalated in 1998 when the Taliban killed nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif, almost leading to war.
• Shifting Dynamics: Following the 9/11 attacks and the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Iran's relationship with the Taliban shifted. Iran viewed the Taliban as a tool to counter US influence in the region. It provided limited support to the Taliban to pressure the US without triggering military retaliation.
• Tactical Alliances: Iran and the Taliban share a common enemy in the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), a group that both Iran and the Taliban view as a more significant threat. This shared interest has led to tactical alliances between the two.
• Refugee Crisis: Iran fears a potential influx of refugees if the Taliban's return to power leads to instability and sectarian violence in Afghanistan. Iran already hosts millions of Afghan refugees, and a further influx would strain its economy and social services.
• Regional Influence: Iran, as a regional power, seeks to extend its influence in Afghanistan. It has engaged in diplomatic outreach to the Taliban and attempted to mediate between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Iran's support for the Taliban is also seen as a way to retaliate against the US.
• Pragmatism over Ideology: Despite their differences, both Iran and the Taliban have demonstrated pragmatism in their dealings. Iran recognizes the Taliban as a \"reality\" in Afghanistan and is seeking to balance its ideological preferences with the need to preserve security on its eastern border.
• Power Dynamics: Iran's relationship with the Taliban is also influenced by power dynamics within Afghanistan. Iran has sought to maintain good ties with various Afghan stakeholders, including the Taliban and other political leaders.
• Proxy Warfare: Iran has been accused of providing weapons and support to the Taliban, although it denies these claims. Iran has also utilized Afghan militias, such as the Fatemiyoun Brigade, in conflicts in Syria and potentially in Afghanistan.
• Hedging Strategy: Iran has pursued a \"hedging\" strategy in Afghanistan, providing support to both the Afghan government and the Taliban to influence political developments and keep them divided.
• Taliban's Inclusivity Efforts: Iran has viewed the Taliban's attempts to include ethnic minorities, such as the Shiite Hazaras, in the new coalition favorably. This is a shift from the Taliban's previous persecution of Hazaras, which Iran had opposed.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

US Withdrawal and its Impact on Afghanistan

The US withdrawal also resulted in a refugee crisis, with many Afghans fleeing the country. Additionally, there were concerns about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorists, as evidenced by the presence of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul. The Taliban's rule also raised fears of a resurgence of Sunni-Shia tensions with Iran, which has a Shi'a majority population.

Impact on US-Iran Relations

Iran has a complicated relationship with Afghanistan, and its influence in the country has been ambiguous. While Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in the past, it also maintained tactical understandings with the Taliban, seeing them as a tool to counter US influence. With the US withdrawal, Iran is keen to maintain its influence in Afghanistan and ensure that its interests are protected.

Future Scenarios and Strategies

Iran has several options to secure its interests in Afghanistan, including working with the Taliban, attempting to preserve the status quo, or even intervening directly. However, the situation is complex due to the presence of other regional powers and the unpredictable nature of the Taliban.

To maintain stability and protect its interests, Iran may continue its dual policy of supporting the Afghan government and the Taliban simultaneously. Additionally, Iran could use its influence over militias and proxy groups to exert pressure or counter any extremist elements.

In conclusion, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had far-reaching consequences, leading to a Taliban-controlled state with a struggling economy and a humanitarian crisis. The withdrawal has also impacted US-Iran relations, with Iran cautiously seeking to secure its interests in the region. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, and Iran's role in the country will be crucial in shaping its political and social landscape.

The potential for refugee influxes

Iran has historically been a preferred destination for Afghans escaping Afghanistan. However, due to economic downturns and the COVID-19 pandemic, many Afghan refugees have left Iran for Europe in recent years. This could change again due to the unfolding crisis in Afghanistan.

The Iranian government has been building border camps to temporarily settle Afghans fleeing the Taliban. Iran has also been pushing to ensure that its efforts to expand its political, sectarian, and economic influence in Afghanistan are not adversely affected by unwanted publicity over the mistreatment of Afghan refugees.

Iran has introduced policies to increase the provision and renewal of Amayesh cards, which grant registered refugees conditional freedom of movement, temporary work permits, and access to the national education and healthcare systems. However, the card renewal process has been difficult since the arrival of a large number of Afghans following the Taliban takeover.

A lack of documentation creates numerous challenges for Afghan refugees in accessing medical services, education, and livelihood opportunities, further exposing them to the risk of arbitrary arrest and involuntary return, as well as movement restrictions. In 2023, around 600,000 Afghans returned to Afghanistan from Iran, at least half of them facing some form of coercion.

Afghan refugees have frequently been used as scapegoats, and the Iranian government has used the issue as leverage over the former Afghan government and in dealing with the US.

The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan could result in a major flow of refugees to Iran. However, Iran is unlikely to welcome a large number of refugees this time, as the Iran-Afghanistan border is closed, and the country is dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iran's influence in Afghanistan

Iran and Afghanistan have a complex and multifaceted relationship, with a shared border, cultural ties, and a long history of interaction. Iran has been described as a pivotal player in Afghanistan's post-Taliban development, and its influence in the country is significant.

Iran has substantial economic, political, cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. It is a large source of foreign direct investment and provides critical assistance in areas such as infrastructure development, road construction, energy distribution, and agricultural and communications development. Iran's influence is particularly strong in Afghanistan's western Herat Province, where it has developed an "economic sphere of influence".

Iran's relationship with the Taliban has been ambiguous and complex. While Tehran is ideologically opposed to the Sunni Taliban, it has provided calculated support to the group to accelerate the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and to counter US influence on its borders. Iran has also been accused of supplying weapons to the Taliban, with Iranian-made armaments discovered in the hands of Taliban fighters.

At the same time, Iran has supported the Afghan government and has been viewed as a potential stabilizing force in the country, particularly in relation to concerns about the Taliban insurgency, resistance to al-Qaeda, and weakening the opium trade. Iran has strong ties with Afghanistan's Shi'a Hazaras and has hosted millions of Hazara refugees.

Iran's overall strategy in Afghanistan appears to be driven by a desire to shape the country's political future and maintain a favourable balance of power in the region. Tehran's relationship with the Taliban can be characterised as a marriage of convenience or a form of hedging, with Iran seeking to keep the various factions divided and influence political developments.

In summary, Iran's influence in Afghanistan is multifaceted and complex, driven by a range of geopolitical, ideological, and economic factors. While Iran has been a stabilising force in some respects, its ambiguous relationship with the Taliban and its attempts to shape Afghanistan's political future have also contributed to instability and tension in the region.

The Afghan government's worsening security situation

The U.S. and NATO forces' withdrawal from Afghanistan left a security vacuum that the Taliban exploited to seize power. The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has resulted in a fragile security situation, with the group struggling to exert control and prevent attacks from insurgent groups. The Taliban's inability to curb the activities of insurgent groups, such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) and the National Resistance Front (NRF), has led to a deterioration in security. The Taliban's heavy-handed tactics, including arbitrary detentions, torture, and extrajudicial killings, have also fueled grievances and support for insurgent groups.

The Taliban has attempted to suppress opposition by conducting house-to-house searches, confiscating weapons, and enforcing a general amnesty for former government officials and security forces. However, these measures have had limited success, and the Taliban continues to face resistance from insurgent groups. The Taliban's failure to effectively address the security situation has led to concerns among regional and international powers, with some considering unilateral military action or support for opposition groups.

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