Leslie Massey
Wheat is one of the world's most important crops, and Australia is a major exporter. Wheat yields in Australia are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Climate change is already affecting wheat production in Australia, with reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and more erratic weather patterns causing crop management issues and decreasing yields. Climate change is also causing wheat grain yields to decline and increasing the frequency and severity of wind and water erosion risk. By 2030, climate change is projected to reduce wheat yields in Australia by 1%, and by 2050, cropping farms in Western Australia are expected to be heavily impacted by substantial declines in winter rainfall.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Wheat yields | Stalled or reduced |
| Wheat production | Reduced |
| Wheat price | Increased |
| Wheat quality | Decreased |
| Wheat drought risk | Improved since 2007-08 |
| Wheat yield drought risk | 14% increase under dry conditions since 2007-08 |
| Wheat yield in Western Australia | Doubled between 1980 and 2010 |
| Wheat yield in Australia in 2030 | 1% decrease with existing technology and practices |
| Wheat yield in Australia in 2030 with optimal adaptation | 18% increase |
| Wheat yield in South-West Australia in 2090 | 26-49% decline |
| Wheat yield reduction causes | Shorter growing seasons, variability in annual rainfall, rainfall distribution and intensity |
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What You'll Learn
Wheat yield drought risk
Wheat is one of the world's major grains and Australia is a significant exporter. Wheat yields in Australia are sensitive to changes in climate, and climate change is putting pressure on wheat yields in the southwest of Western Australia.
However, despite these improvements, Australian farm profits have become more vulnerable to drought impacts over time. The difference between profits in normal and drought years has widened, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, leading to grain shortages and price spikes. By 2030, climate change is projected to cause a 1% decline in wheat yield in the Australian wheat belt, but this could increase to an 18% decline if optimal adaptation measures are not implemented.
Modeling forecasts for southwest Western Australia predict a concerning decline in median wheat yields by 2090, ranging from 26% to 49% under the most likely climate scenarios. These declines are primarily attributed to reductions in winter rainfall, which impact crop yield. The eastern grain belt is also affected by declining rainfall, increasing temperatures, and higher evaporative demand, resulting in reduced potential yield.
Climate change is already impacting the availability and price of wheat in Australia, and these effects are expected to worsen. Addressing climate change through decisive action and adapting farming practices to changing conditions are crucial to moderating these impacts and improving wheat yield drought resilience.
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Wheat production and erosion risk
Wheat is one of the world's major grains and Australia is a significant exporter. Wheat yields in Australia are sensitive to changes in climate. Climate change is putting pressure on wheat yields in Australia in several ways, including reduced rainfall, shorter growing seasons, higher temperatures during the growing season, and increased drought risk.
The impact of climate change on wheat production and erosion risk in Australia is a cause for concern. Modelling exercises have been conducted to examine the potential impacts on wheat grain yields and the frequency and severity of wind and water erosion risk. These models consider factors such as soil moisture, surface texture, and plant water-holding capacity.
Reduced rainfall has impacted wheat yields, particularly in parts of the eastern grain belt. However, modelling shows that changes in rainfall distribution may have a greater effect on crop yield than absolute reductions. For example, reduced rainfall during germination and flowering months can have a more significant impact on yields than during the months of highest rainfall.
By 2030, it is projected that climate change will lead to a 1% decline in national wheat yields if existing technology and practices are maintained. However, with optimal adaptation, yields could increase by 18%. This adaptation includes adjustments to planting dates, nitrogen fertilizer use, and selecting suitable cultivars for each region.
The frequency and severity of drought-induced grain shortages are expected to increase due to climate change, leading to price spikes and empty supermarket shelves. Australian farm profits have become more sensitive to drought impacts, with the difference between profits in normal and drought years widening.
Wheat yield drought risk has shown improvement since 2007-08 due to advancements in technology and management practices, helping farmers improve crop yields under dry conditions. The shift towards increased cropping in higher rainfall areas has also contributed to this improvement. However, the overall impact of climate change on wheat production and erosion risk in Australia remains a significant challenge that requires decisive action and adaptation.
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Wheat prices and grain shortages
Wheat is one of the world's major grains and Australia is a significant exporter. Wheat yields in Australia are influenced by climate change, which puts pressure on wheat production in various ways. These include lower annual rainfall, shorter growing seasons, higher temperatures during the growing season, and increased erosion risk.
The impact of climate change on wheat yields in Australia is already being observed, with a plateauing of yield increases since the 1990s. Modelling studies have projected that by 2030, climate change could lead to a 1% decline in national wheat yields if existing technology and practices are maintained. However, with optimal adaptation, yields could increase by 18%. Despite these potential improvements, challenges remain, and it is expected that the frequency and severity of drought-induced grain shortages will increase. This will result in related price spikes for wheat and other major grain crops.
Simulation studies have projected increases in average Australian prices for wheat and other major grain crops, ranging from 3% to 24%. These price increases are attributed to the increasing frequency and severity of droughts, similar to those experienced during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 drought periods. The impact of these droughts on grain availability and pricing provides a clear indication of the potential challenges that lie ahead.
While technology and management practice changes have helped farmers improve crop yields under dry conditions, the issue of grain shortages is expected to persist. The combination of flooding and the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2022 resulted in food shortages in central and northern Australia, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain. As climate change intensifies, the resilience of the food supply system will be further tested, leading to higher input costs and less reliable food supplies for the retail and food service sectors.
Overall, climate change is expected to impact wheat prices and grain shortages in Australia through reduced wheat yields, increased drought frequency and severity, and disruptions to the supply chain. These factors will contribute to price spikes and reduced availability of wheat and other grain crops, affecting both consumers and the agricultural sector.
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Wheat yield and gross margins
Wheat yields in Australia have been affected by climate change in several ways, including reduced rainfall, shorter growing seasons, higher temperatures, and increased drought risk. These factors have impacted crop management and reduced potential yield, particularly in the eastern grain belt regions.
Modelling forecasts for south-west Western Australia project significant declines in median wheat yields by 2090, with rainfall distribution expected to have a more significant impact on crop yield than absolute reductions in rainfall. The sensitivity of wheat yields to climate change has economic implications as Australia is a major exporter of wheat, influencing trade supplies and global markets.
To address the challenges posed by climate change, farmers have adapted by adjusting planting dates, using nitrogen fertilizers, and selecting suitable cultivars for their regions. These adaptations have resulted in improved wheat yields under dry conditions, with increases of up to 14% since 2007-08. At the national level, full adaptation to a changing climate remains a challenge, but there is an opportunity to enhance water use and nitrogen efficiencies in the Australian wheat belt by 2030.
While climate change has negatively impacted wheat yields in some regions, Western Australia's 2020 winter crop harvest exceeded expectations despite challenging seasonal conditions, demonstrating the resilience and adaptation of farmers to dry conditions. However, the frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase, leading to grain shortages and price spikes, as seen during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 droughts.
Overall, climate change is projected to impact wheat yields and gross margins in Australia, with regional variations in the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The challenge lies in achieving full adaptation to mitigate yield losses and maintain Australia's position as a significant wheat exporter in a changing climate.
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Wheat yields and climate change adaptation
Wheat yields in Australia are influenced by climate change in several ways. The south-west of Western Australia is a major area for wheat production and is facing challenges due to lower annual, autumn, and spring rainfall, delayed starts to the growing season, and higher temperatures during the growing season. These factors impact crop management and contribute to yield variability.
Modelling studies in this region project significant declines in median wheat yields by 2090, with rainfall distribution having a more substantial effect than absolute reductions. The sensitivity of wheat yields to rainfall timing, such as during germination and flowering, further complicates the situation.
Climate change adaptation becomes crucial to mitigate these impacts. Projections for a warming and drying climate highlight the importance of addressing low soil moisture, which often limits plant growth. By linking crop simulation models with soil landscape mapping, researchers can assess erosion risks and develop strategies to maintain healthy soils.
The Australian wheat belt provides an illustrative example of adaptation. While existing technology and practices may result in a slight decline in yields by 2030, optimal adaptation has the potential to increase yields by 18%. This involves adjustments to planting dates, nitrogen fertilizer use, and cultivar selection suitable for each region.
Furthermore, technological advancements and improved management practices have played a pivotal role in enhancing farm productivity and crop yields under dry conditions. Since 2007-08, wheat yields under dry conditions have increased by 14%, outperforming gains in normal conditions. This trend is also influenced by the relocation of cropping activities to higher rainfall areas, demonstrating farmers' adaptability to changing climatic conditions.
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Frequently asked questions
Climate change is expected to put pressure on wheat yields in Australia in several ways, including lower rainfall, shorter growing seasons, and higher temperatures during the growing season. Wheat is one of the main grains produced in Australia, and wheat yields are sensitive to changes in climate.
Western Australia is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on wheat production. Modelling forecasts predict yield declines of between 26% and 49% by 2090 in the south-west region. This is due to lower rainfall, particularly during the critical months of May and August, and higher temperatures.
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, leading to wheat shortages and related price spikes. Wheat yield drought risk has already shown improvement since 2007-08 due to technological advancements and improved management practices. However, the difference between profits in normal and drought years has widened, indicating that Australian farm profits have become more sensitive to drought impacts over time.
