Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia's population has grown by an average of 1.4% per year over the past three decades, reaching 27.2 million in June 2024. The country's population growth is managed through a multifaceted and mostly effective population policy that does not specify a target population or growth rate. This policy depends on managing factors such as birth and death rates (natural increase) and net overseas migration, which has been the primary driver of population growth in recent years. To optimise the impact of migration on economic growth, Australia's permanent residence program allows for 190,000 international migrants per year. The country has also successfully reduced mortality rates through public health campaigns and increased health expenditure. Population growth is a focus of policy documents, which aim to stimulate economic growth and attract a working-age population, but they often lack specific implementation details and fail to address spatial imbalances between metropolitan and rural regions.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth as a prerequisite for economic growth
Australia's population growth has averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024, with a total population of 27.2 million as of 30 June 2024. Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of this growth, contributing to 57% of the increase, while natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for the remaining 43%. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a dip in population growth, with international border restrictions leading to a historical low of 0.1% growth in 2020-21. However, the easing of these restrictions and the resumption of overseas migration saw a rebound to 2.5% growth in 2022-23.
Population growth is seen as essential for economic development in Australia. The country's population policy aims to manage factors such as birth rates, death rates, and net overseas migration to optimize economic growth. Government research in 2010 indicated that a net overseas migration (NOM) of 160,000 to 220,000 people per year would have the most significant impact on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. As a result, Australia's permanent residence program currently allows for 190,000 international migrants annually.
Additionally, Australia has implemented policies to support its fertility rate, which has remained within the ideal range of 1.7 to 2.0 births per woman for the past 42 years. These policies include providing access to low-cost birth control, subsidized childcare, parental leave, social security payments, and support for early childhood education. Immigration also plays a crucial role in mitigating the effects of an ageing population. Without net migration, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly from 15.4% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2051. However, with net migration at its current average of 200,000 per year, this proportion is expected to be lower at 20.5% in 2051.
While population growth is a priority, there is also recognition that the population is ageing and declining in many rural areas. This has led to debates about managing growth in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne while supporting smaller settlements. The government has proposed adjusting migration policies to encourage migrants to settle in regional towns to ease congestion in large cities. However, critics argue that reducing international migration to big cities could negatively impact smaller regions, as their young populations may be drawn to the larger urban centres.
In summary, Australia recognizes the importance of population growth for economic development and has implemented policies to manage this growth effectively. The focus on net overseas migration and fertility rates aims to optimize economic growth while addressing the challenges of an ageing population. However, there are ongoing discussions about balancing the growth of major cities with the development of smaller settlements to ensure a more equitable distribution of population growth across the country.
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Managing population growth in regional towns
Population growth in Australia has averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024, with the country's population reaching 27.2 million during this period. Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of this growth, contributing to 57% of it, while natural increase (births minus deaths) has contributed to the remaining 43%.
Managing this growth sustainably is crucial, especially in regional towns, to minimise the various pressures on biodiversity and natural resources. Here are some strategies for managing population growth in regional towns:
Encouraging Migration to Regional Towns
Australia has proposed adjusting its migration policy to encourage more migrants to settle in regional towns. This strategy aims to ease congestion in major cities while supporting the growth of regional areas.
Coordinated Planning for Balanced Spatial Development
Australia has been urged to adopt a comprehensive national spatial development framework. This framework would enable coordinated planning for population growth, infrastructure development, and economic growth beyond political and budgetary cycles. By balancing big-city growth with the needs of smaller settlements, Australia can foster more sustainable and equitable regional development.
Implementing Regional Growth Plans
Regional growth plans, such as the Wimmera Southern Mallee Regional Growth Plan, aim to guide the development of regional areas. However, these plans often lack specific details on implementation and funding for infrastructure outside designated investment corridors. To realise their vision, these plans must address funding sources and collaborate with local governments to achieve their strategic goals effectively.
Supporting Internal Migration to Regional Areas
Internal migration has played a significant role in the growth of regional areas. Encouraging Australians to relocate from congested cities to less populated regions can help alleviate pressure on major cities while revitalising regional communities.
Promoting Sustainable Urban Development
As regional towns grow, sustainable urban planning becomes crucial to minimise the environmental impacts of expansion. This includes preserving green spaces, promoting biodiversity, and ensuring adequate infrastructure for transport, power, and services. Governments are supporting new greenfield developments on urban outskirts, offering larger and more affordable homes.
By implementing these strategies and adapting them to the specific needs and characteristics of each regional town, Australia can effectively manage population growth in these areas, ensuring sustainable development and improving the quality of life for its citizens.
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Migration policy adjustments to ease congestion in major cities
Australia's population growth has averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024, with net overseas migration being the main driver. In the context of managing this growth, migration policy adjustments have been proposed to ease congestion in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne.
Understanding Congestion in Major Cities: Congestion in major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and their surrounding areas has been a significant issue. In 2016-17, these cities accounted for 77% of Australia's total population growth. This trend has continued, with capital cities growing faster than regional areas. As a result, there is a need to distribute population growth more evenly across the country.
Redirecting Migration to Regional Areas: The Australian government has proposed redirecting international migrants away from high-growth cities to ease congestion. This strategy aims to encourage migrants to settle in regional towns and smaller settlements, alleviating pressure on major cities. However, this approach must consider the potential impact on regional areas, as reducing migration to large cities could make it challenging for those regions to maintain their populations, particularly if young people are drawn to the cities.
Implementing Incentives and Infrastructure Development: Migration policy adjustments can include incentives to attract migrants to regional areas. This could involve offering incentives such as subsidised housing, parental leave, and childcare, employment opportunities, or other benefits to those who settle outside major cities. Additionally, investing in infrastructure development in regional areas can make these locations more attractive to migrants, ensuring they have access to quality services, transportation, and amenities.
Coordinated Planning for Balanced Spatial Development: Australia has historically lacked a formal national settlement policy, which has contributed to imbalanced growth between big cities and smaller settlements. To address this, there is a growing argument for pursuing balanced spatial development. This involves implementing coordinated planning strategies that consider population growth, infrastructure development, and economic growth across the country. By distributing population growth more evenly, congestion in major cities can be alleviated.
Managing Population Ageing: Migration policies can also play a role in managing Australia's ageing population. Immigration substantially impacts ageing demographics. By maintaining net migration, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in 2051 would be lower at 20.5% compared to 26.8% if net migration was zero. Migration policies that attract working-age individuals can help stimulate economic growth and address the challenges posed by an ageing population.
In conclusion, migration policy adjustments play a crucial role in easing congestion in major cities. By redirecting migration to regional areas, providing incentives, investing in infrastructure, and pursuing balanced spatial development, Australia can better manage population growth and distribute it more evenly across the country. Additionally, considering the impact of migration on population ageing can further contribute to effective congestion relief in major cities.
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The impact of immigration on population ageing
Immigration has significantly influenced Australia's population growth over the past few decades. In 2019, Australia had the second-highest proportion of migrants among OECD countries, with 30% of its population born overseas. This has had a substantial impact on population ageing.
Firstly, immigrants to Australia tend to be younger than the native population. The median age of Australians increased from 33 in the early 1990s to 38.3 in 2021. However, the average age of immigrants over the last 20 years is slightly lower, at 37 years. This influx of younger individuals helps mitigate the effects of an ageing population, including increased healthcare and pension costs and reduced tax revenues due to fewer working-age taxpayers.
Secondly, immigration boosts the labour force and GDP without negatively impacting labour market outcomes. Immigrants have a slightly lower unemployment rate than the overall Australian population, with a more educated workforce likely to be more productive and earn higher wages. A one-percentage-point rise in the annual migrant inflow increases employment among Australian-born individuals by 0.53%. Immigration also increases patenting in Australia, with a one-percentage-point increase in higher-educated migrants leading to a 4.8% rise in regional patent applications over five years.
Thirdly, many immigrants work in healthcare, aged care, and social assistance, addressing the demand for retirement care services. Between 2000 and 2021, 15% of permanent immigrants were health professionals or carers. This has become increasingly important as older migrants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds often face barriers in accessing aged care and health services due to English language proficiency issues.
Finally, immigration has a substantial impact on Australia's fertility rate and, consequently, population ageing. With a fertility rate of 1.49 babies per woman in 2023-24, Australia's future natural population increase is heavily dependent on immigration. If net migration was zero between 2017 and 2051, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 15.4% to 26.8%. However, with net migration continuing at its present average of 200,000 per year, this proportion would only increase to 20.5%.
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The role of fertility rates and government policies in population growth
Australia's population growth has averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024, with a total population of 27.2 million as of 30 June 2024. The main drivers of this growth have been net overseas migration and natural increase (births minus deaths). In recent years, net overseas migration has contributed more to population growth than natural increase, with net overseas migration contributing to 57% of population growth and natural increase contributing to 43% over the past 30 years.
Australia's fertility rate has remained within the ideal range of 1.7 to 2.0 births per woman for the past 42 years. This is due in part to government policies such as subsidised childcare, parental leave, social security payments, and public support for early childhood education. These policies have helped to maintain a stable fertility rate, which is important for the country's future natural increase.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Australia's population growth. In 2020-21, there was a net outflow of migrants from the country for the first time since World War II, resulting in a historical low population growth rate of 0.1%. However, as international border restrictions eased and overseas migration recovered in 2021, Australia's population growth rebounded to 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
While Australia does not have a formal national settlement policy, population growth is a key focus in policy documents, which emphasise economic growth and attracting a working-age population. There is a general \"growth-at-all-cost\" mindset, particularly in capital cities, which have grown faster than regional areas. However, there are challenges in achieving a balanced settlement structure, and local governments may struggle to implement ambitious strategic policy goals with limited resources.
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Frequently asked questions
Net overseas migration.
The introduction of international border restrictions caused population growth to fall to a historical low of 0.1% in 2020-21. Following the easing of these restrictions, Australia's population grew by 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
The government is proposing to adjust migration policy to encourage more migrants to work in regional towns, to ease congestion in major cities.
The ideal fertility rate is between 1.7 and 2.0 births per woman, which has been supported by access to low-cost birth control methods and government policies like subsidised childcare.
There is a lack of a formal national settlement policy, which has resulted in a lack of balance between big city growth and the requirements of smaller settlements.
