The Afghan Conundrum: Assessing Terrorism Threats Post-War

The war in Afghanistan was a response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. The invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, also known as Operation Enduring Freedom, aimed to destroy terrorist training camps and the central command structure of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. While the invasion successfully disrupted Al-Qaeda's operations in Afghanistan, it also scattered the network, making it harder to counteract. The war in Afghanistan has had complex effects on the threat of terrorism. On the one hand, it led to the destruction of terrorist training camps and the elimination of many Al-Qaeda leaders. On the other hand, the war has increased anti-American sentiment among Muslims worldwide, amplifying the message of militant Islam and uniting disparate groups. Additionally, the instability and weakness of the Afghan state have provided terrorist groups with greater freedom to operate and recruit members. With the Taliban's return to power in 2021, there are concerns that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorist groups, posing a significant threat beyond its borders.

The Taliban's relationship with terrorist groups

Al-Qaeda, in particular, has had a long and cozy relationship with important factions of the Taliban. The Haqqani network, a fierce Taliban militia based in Pakistan's tribal regions, has harbored al-Qaeda for much of the past decade. Jalaluddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network, is believed to have a close relationship with Mullah Omar, a prominent figure in the Taliban. Additionally, Haqqani's connections with Osama bin Laden date back to the 1980s, further illustrating the intertwined nature of these groups.

The Taliban's policy towards international terrorists can be characterized by three main facets: enablement, restrictions, and crackdown. They provide haven and safety to various militant groups within Afghanistan, allowing them to rebuild and reestablish training camps. This enables these groups to plan and launch attacks, with the potential threat of accessing weapons of mass destruction. However, the Taliban also imposes restrictions on the movements of some militants within the country, indicating a nuanced approach to their relationships.

The Taliban's relationship with ISIS-K, the self-proclaimed Islamic State's local affiliate, is more antagonistic. ISIS-K is a sworn enemy of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but they share the common goal of establishing a pan-Islamic caliphate. The Taliban has engaged in a campaign against ISIS-K, although the effectiveness of these efforts is uncertain, especially considering the Taliban's indiscriminate tactics against certain populations.

Overall, the Taliban's relationship with terrorist groups is a cause for concern. While they publicly deny any intention to threaten other countries, their close associations and enablement of certain militant organizations contradict these statements. The potential for terrorist groups to utilize Afghanistan as a safe haven and launch attacks against the United States, Europe, and other targets cannot be overlooked, and it remains a critical focus of counterterrorism efforts.

The Taliban's failure to establish basic services

The Taliban's primary focus since regaining power has been to solidify its internal unity and maintain territorial control. This has involved suppressing dissent, cracking down on free speech, and enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. The group has struggled to transition its fighters into formal security forces and has faced challenges in governing urban areas and regions with non-Pashtun ethnic communities. The Taliban's heavy-handed approach to justice and dispute resolution, combined with its failure to establish a functioning judiciary, has further contributed to the lack of basic services.

The Taliban's inability to provide basic services is also a result of the economic collapse that Afghanistan has experienced under its rule. The country's economy was already weak before the Taliban takeover, and the situation has been exacerbated by sanctions, the loss of foreign aid, and the collapse of the banking sector. Mass unemployment, a housing market collapse, and increased malnutrition rates have plagued the country. The Taliban has been unable to address these issues and has instead contributed to them through policies such as banning women from working, which has further shrunk the economy.

Another factor in the Taliban's failure to provide basic services is the lack of international recognition and support. The West's strategy of aid conditionality, which sought to leverage funding to influence the Taliban's behavior, has not been successful. Regional actors, such as Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia, have engaged with the Taliban to varying degrees but have stopped short of formal recognition. The Taliban's inability or unwillingness to cut ties with terrorist groups like al-Qaeda has further complicated its relationship with the international community.

The Taliban's ideological agenda and interpretation of Islamic law have also hindered its ability to provide basic services. The group has imposed harsh restrictions on women, banning them from working, attending school, and participating in public life. This has resulted in a brain drain and further economic decline, as women have been forced out of the workforce and denied educational opportunities. The Taliban's interpretation of "morality" has also led to the banning of music, restrictions on dress code, and the destruction of non-Islamic artistic relics.

Additionally, the Taliban's decentralized command structure and internal divisions have made it difficult for the group to enforce policies and hold local forces accountable. The disunity within the Taliban has led to contradictions between its public statements and actions on the ground, further undermining its ability to provide basic services and govern effectively.

Finally, the Taliban's failure to establish basic services can be attributed in part to its lack of experience and capacity. The group has struggled to fill its interim government with qualified individuals and has instead appointed hardliners and loyalists to key positions. The Taliban's leaders, such as Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada, have remained secluded and have played minimal roles in directing the group's activities. The lack of effective leadership and governance experience has hindered the Taliban's ability to address the country's pressing issues and provide basic services to the Afghan people.

The Taliban's relationship with the US

The Mujahideen were made up of Islamic guerrilla fighters, and the Taliban was formed from this group. The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group, returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, twenty years after their ouster by US troops.

The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which were orchestrated by Osama Bin Laden, who was residing in Afghanistan under the Taliban's protection. The US-led Operation Enduring Freedom was aimed at removing the Taliban government from power and capturing or killing al-Qaeda members.

The Taliban regrouped across the border in Pakistan and began taking back territory less than ten years after their ouster. By August 2021, the Taliban had swept back into power. Their swift offensive came as the United States withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in a 2020 peace agreement with the group.

The US has attempted to negotiate with the Taliban, signing the Doha Agreement in 2020, which led to the withdrawal of US and allied forces from Afghanistan. However, the Taliban has failed to uphold its commitments under the agreement, and tensions between the two countries remain high. The US has not recognized the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan and has imposed sanctions on the country.

The US's over-the-horizon counterterrorism campaign

The over-the-horizon strategy relies heavily on remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) or drones for surveillance and strike capabilities. While RPAs offer advantages such as long loiter times and organic intelligence capabilities, they have also been associated with significant civilian casualties. A 2013 study found that drones were ten times more deadly to civilians than crewed aircraft during one year in Afghanistan. There are concerns that civilian casualties resulting from RPA strikes could erode US legitimacy, provide recruitment fuel for extremist organizations, and have longer-term strategic consequences.

The absence of US troops in Afghanistan limits the type and quality of intelligence that can be gathered. This reliance on aerial surveillance and signals intelligence (SIGINT) without sufficient human intelligence (HUMINT) can lead to confirmation bias and an overreliance on "signature strikes", which target patterns of behavior associated with terrorism rather than specific individuals. The lack of on-the-ground presence also makes it challenging to validate information and distinguish between enemies' psychological operations and authentic intelligence.

The over-the-horizon approach has been criticized for its narrow focus on military force rather than addressing the underlying conditions that enable extremist groups to gain traction. Critics argue that a purely military approach will not solve the problems of climate change, extreme poverty, and weak governance that create an environment conducive to terrorism.

To address these challenges, it has been suggested that the US should develop a framework for RPA utilization that considers longer-term implications and elevates decision-making authority. Emphasis should be placed on using RPAs for intelligence-gathering purposes rather than solely for strike capabilities. Additionally, the US should strengthen collaboration with overseas military partners and integrate multiple sources of intelligence, including aerial surveillance, SIGINT, and HUMINT, to minimize the risk of civilian casualties.

The legal justification for over-the-horizon counterterrorism strikes is also a subject of debate. While the Biden administration has signaled a desire to retain cooperative diplomatic relations with the Taliban, the nature of the US-Taliban relationship and the Taliban's ties with terrorist groups may complicate the legal basis for such strikes. Options for legal justification include host nation consent, the "unwilling and unable" doctrine of self-defense, or a United Nations Security Council authorization.

In conclusion, while the over-the-horizon counterterrorism campaign offers the advantage of conducting operations without putting troops into harm's way, it faces significant challenges in terms of intelligence gathering, risk of civilian casualties, and addressing the underlying conditions that foster extremism. A more comprehensive approach that integrates military force with diplomatic, economic, and political efforts is needed to effectively counter the terrorist threat in Afghanistan.

The US's withdrawal from Afghanistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 has had a profound impact on the country and the region, with consequences for US foreign policy and global counterterrorism efforts. Here is an analysis of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implications:

The Withdrawal Process

The US withdrawal was conducted in accordance with the Doha Agreement, signed by the Trump administration and the Taliban in February 2020. The deal set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, with a deadline of May 2021. President Biden extended this deadline to September 11, 2021, marking 20 years since the US invasion. The withdrawal was chaotic and rushed, with the Taliban rapidly seizing territory and the Afghan government collapsing. The US evacuated its embassy in Kabul and thousands of Afghans who had worked with US forces, although many were left behind.

Impact on Afghanistan

The withdrawal of US and NATO forces had a devastating impact on Afghanistan. The Taliban swiftly regained control of the country, undoing 20 years of progress in areas such as women's rights, education, and democratic governance. The Taliban imposed strict Islamic laws, restricted women's access to education and employment, and carried out public floggings and executions. Afghanistan also faced a severe humanitarian crisis, with the economy on the brink of collapse, food shortages, and a lack of access to basic services. The UN reported that the country was headed towards "universal poverty", with nearly ten million children at risk of starvation.

Regional Implications

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan had significant regional implications. Neighbouring countries, such as Pakistan and Iran, faced increased instability and security threats due to the spillover of violence and refugee crises. The Taliban's resurgence also inspired jihadist groups globally, with celebrations and pledges of revitalized global jihad in online forums. Additionally, the US withdrawal damaged America's credibility and relationships with regional allies, who felt abandoned and questioned US reliability.

Counterterrorism Concerns

The US withdrawal raised concerns about the resurgence of terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K). According to US intelligence estimates, the number of al-Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan has increased since the withdrawal. The Taliban has close ties with these groups and has allowed them to re-establish training camps. ISIS-K, a sworn enemy of the Taliban, has also doubled in size and poses a threat to the region and potentially the West. The UN Security Council concluded that "terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom in Afghanistan than at any time in recent history."

US Counterterrorism Strategy

The US has struggled to implement an effective over-the-horizon counterterrorism strategy due to a lack of partner forces, intelligence architecture, and nearby bases. The Biden administration has proposed conducting a robust over-the-horizon campaign using aerial platforms and satellites for intelligence gathering and targeted strikes. However, the lack of local partners and intelligence has hampered these efforts, as evidenced by the failed drone strike in Kabul in August 2021 that killed ten civilians.

Political Fallout

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan had significant political consequences for the Biden administration. It was widely criticized for the chaotic nature of the withdrawal and the collapse of the Afghan government. The State Department's review of the withdrawal detailed damning shortcomings and a lack of preparedness. The withdrawal also raised questions about the US commitment to its allies and partners, with concerns about abandonment and reliability.

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