Russia's Nuclear Weaponry In Belarus: What's Happening?

In March 2024, Russia moved tactical nuclear weapons from its borders to Belarus, marking the first relocation of such warheads outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. The move was likely aimed at increasing pressure on NATO's eastern flank and followed years of nuclear sabre-rattling intended to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine.

The transfer of nuclear weapons was confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who framed it as a warning to the West, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said it was meant to deter aggression from Poland, a NATO member.

The move has raised concerns in the West and neighbouring countries such as Poland, with some calling for a harder response from Western nations. However, top NATO officials insist that it does not drastically change the nature of Russia's military threats to NATO.

Putin confirms the first nuclear weapons have been moved to Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that Russia has moved a batch of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, marking the first deployment of such weapons outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin framed the move as a warning to the West, stating that it was about "containment" and to remind anyone "thinking of inflicting a strategic defeat on us". The transfer of the weapons was completed by the end of summer, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announcing in October that the shipments had been completed.

The deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus is likely aimed at increasing pressure on NATO's eastern flank, as it brings the weapons several hundred miles closer to NATO territory. Lithuania's Defence Minister, Arvydas Anusauskas, has warned of the high risks of Western inaction, citing the previous lacklustre response to Russia moving nuclear weapons to the Kaliningrad Peninsula, which is bordered by Poland and Lithuania. He emphasised the need for a harder response to Russia's nuclear moves, stating, "If [the] Russians move nuclear weapons closer to us, we need to move as well."

The United States has denounced the deployment plan, with State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller describing it as "the latest example of irresponsible behaviour" from Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. However, Miller reiterated that Washington had no intention of altering its strategic nuclear posture and had seen no indications that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

Putin has emphasised that the nuclear weapons would only be used if Russia's territory or state was threatened. He has also denied considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, stating that "there was never such a need." Despite Putin's assurances, the movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus has raised concerns in the West about the potential spread of Moscow's war against Ukraine. NATO has called the move "dangerous and irresponsible".

The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus underscores the ongoing tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict. Putin has issued a new nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for Russia's use of nuclear weapons and warning against Western long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine being used against Russian territory. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for further escalation if diplomatic solutions are not found.

The US government says there is no indication that Russia plans to use nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine

In November 2024, Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia had moved a batch of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, marking the first relocation of such warheads outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. This move was likely aimed at pressuring NATO's eastern flank and followed years of nuclear sabre-rattling intended to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine.

Despite this, the US government has stated that there is no indication that Russia plans to use nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken affirmed this position, stating that the US does not see any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon. This sentiment was echoed by State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, who said that the US had seen no reason to adjust its strategic nuclear posture and had not detected any signs of Russia preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

While the movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus sends a clear political message, some experts have downplayed its military significance. Rose Gottemoeller, a former top US arms control envoy, asserted that the move does not change the threat environment and is purely a political message. Estonia's defence minister, Hanno Pevkur, echoed this sentiment, arguing that discussing the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus plays into Russia's hands and diverts attention from Ukraine.

A US intelligence assessment from the same week concluded that Russia likely does not want to engage in direct military conflict with NATO. However, it determined that Russia will increasingly rely on nuclear weapons to deter the US and NATO as it rebuilds its land forces.

NATO calls the move dangerous and irresponsible

NATO has called the movement of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus a "dangerous and irresponsible" act. This move has raised concerns in the West that Moscow's war against Ukraine could spread.

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus marks the first relocation of such warheads outside of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. It is seen as a clear political message and an attempt to ramp up pressure on NATO's eastern flank. The move comes after years of nuclear sabre-rattling by Russia, intended to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine.

While some experts downplay the military significance of the move, arguing that Russia can already reach any NATO country with its nuclear arsenal, others stress that the move is purely a political message aimed at intimidating the alliance. NATO officials insist that the move does not drastically change the nature of Russia's military threats.

The United States has denounced the deployment plan, with State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller describing it as "the latest example of irresponsible behaviour" by Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. The US maintains that it has seen no indication that Russia intends to use nuclear weapons and has no plans to alter its strategic nuclear posture.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, justifies its actions by portraying the Ukraine conflict as a battle for Russia's survival against an aggressive West. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia will use all means necessary to defend itself and has lowered the threshold for his country's use of nuclear weapons.

The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, a close ally of Russia, underscores the dangerous dynamics at play in the region and highlights the ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO.

Putin says the movement of nuclear weapons is about containment

Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed the movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus, stating that it is about "containment". This statement comes as Western officials confirm that Russia has transferred tactical nuclear weapons from its borders to neighbouring Belarus, bringing them several hundred miles closer to NATO territory.

Putin's decision to move nuclear weapons to Belarus is likely part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on NATO's eastern flank. This move follows years of nuclear sabre-rattling, intended to intimidate the West into reducing its support for Ukraine. However, top NATO officials assert that the relocation of nuclear weapons does not significantly alter the nature of Russia's military threats towards the alliance.

Putin has emphasised that the nuclear weapons are meant to serve as a deterrent and will only be used if Russia's territory or state is threatened. He stated, "Why should we threaten the whole world? I have already said that the use of extreme measures is possible in case there is a danger to Russian statehood." The Russian leader also denied considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, claiming that "there was never such a need."

The deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus has raised concerns among neighbouring countries, particularly Poland, and has been denounced by the US State Department as "irresponsible behaviour". This marks the first deployment of Russian nuclear weapons outside of its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Putin's decision to move nuclear weapons closer to NATO territory is a clear political message and an attempt to contain and deter the West. However, it is important to note that the military significance of this move may be limited, as Russia already possesses the capability to reach any NATO country with its nuclear arsenal.

The US State Department denounces the deployment plan

The US State Department has denounced Russia's plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, calling it "irresponsible behavior." State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated Washington's warning that the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in the conflict would be met with "severe consequences." However, Miller also stated that there was no indication that Russia intended to use nuclear weapons and that the deployment did not change the strategic nuclear posture.

The US and its allies maintain that they want Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield but deny seeking to destroy Russia or link the Ukraine war to NATO enlargement. They accuse Russia of using nuclear saber-rattling to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine. This move by Russia is seen as a way to ramp up pressure on NATO's eastern flank and send a political message.

The deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus has raised strong concerns in neighboring Poland and the region, as Belarus shares borders with three NATO members: Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, stated that there were no indications that Russia was preparing to use nuclear weapons, and US officials insist that the move does not drastically change Russia's military threats to NATO.

Despite the US State Department's denunciation of the deployment plan, it is important to note that the US itself has staged tactical nuclear weapons in at least six bases in Europe. The number of tactical nuclear weapons in the US is estimated to be around 200, half of which are based in Europe.

Frequently asked questions