Poland's Support For Belarus: Friend Or Foe?

Poland and Belarus have a shared history and a 418km-long border, but the countries' diplomatic relations are strained. Poland is a member of NATO and the EU and has an anti-Russian stance, while Belarus is firmly pro-Russia. Poland has supported the Belarusian opposition, calling for a rerun of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was neither free nor fair, and offering refuge to opposition leaders. Poland has also accused Belarus of engaging in hybrid warfare and has deployed troops to the border in response to a perceived security threat from Russia.

Poland's support for the Belarusian opposition

Poland has been a key supporter of the Belarusian opposition, especially after the disputed 2020 presidential election, which triggered mass protests and a violent government crackdown. Poland has advocated for democratic change in Belarus, pushing the EU to take action against the authoritarian government.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has been vocal in his support for the Belarusian people's struggle for freedom and democracy. He has described the protests as a "breakthrough", recognising the desire of Belarusians to be part of a "Europe of free, democratic, nations under the rule of law". Poland has supported the opposition's demands for a new and fair election and called for the release of all political prisoners.

In addition to political support, Poland has offered tangible assistance to the Belarusian opposition. The Polish government has provided refuge to opposition leaders, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who fled to Lithuania and later met with Morawiecki in Warsaw. Poland has also welcomed other activists and students, such as Valery Tsepkalo and Olga Kovalkova, who live in exile. Polish hospitals have treated injured or tortured Belarusian activists, and the country has announced a 50 million zloty (£10.2 million; €11.2 million) aid package to help Belarusians come to Poland for work or study.

Poland has a long history with Belarus, sharing a border and centuries of shared history as part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Poland has supported independent Belarusian media, such as Radio Racja and Belsat TV, and hosted the Belarusian news channel Nexta, which played a key role in organising the protests.

However, Poland's credibility as a promoter of democracy in Belarus has been questioned due to its own issues with the rule of law and relations with Brussels. Despite this, Poland remains committed to supporting the Belarusian opposition and has pledged financial assistance to civil society and independent media in Belarus.

Poland's response to the Belarus-EU border crisis

Military Response

In August 2021, Poland deployed 15,000 troops to its border with Belarus to prevent any unsanctioned entry into the country. This came in response to the Belarusian government coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. Poland accused Belarus of engaging in hybrid warfare and, in October 2021, legalized the pushback of migrants, which is considered illegal under EU and international law.

In November 2021, the Polish government announced its intention to build a permanent border wall along its 400 km border with Belarus, with construction beginning in January 2022 and completed in June 2022. The wall is 5.5 meters (18 feet) high and topped with barbed wire.

In August 2023, Poland announced plans to deploy an additional 10,000 troops to the border, citing concerns over the presence of Russia's Wagner militia fighters in Belarus.

Diplomatic Response

Poland has been one of the leading countries pushing the EU to take action against the authoritarian government in Belarus, particularly after the disputed 2020 presidential election, which was widely considered rigged, and the violent crackdown on subsequent protests. Poland has supported the Belarusian opposition, calling for a new and fair election and the release of political prisoners.

Poland has also accused Belarus of facilitating migrants' illegal border crossings and has requested assistance from the EU's border security agency, Frontex, in sending migrants back to their home countries.

Humanitarian Response

Poland has faced criticism for its treatment of migrants, with Human Rights Watch accusing Polish border guards of pushing migrants back to Belarus, denying them adequate medical care, food, and shelter. However, Poland has provided support to injured Belarusian activists, offering treatment in Polish hospitals.

Polish volunteers and humanitarian organizations, such as Grupa Granica and Fundacja Ocalenie, have also provided assistance to migrants, despite facing state-ordered crackdowns and criminalization of their actions.

Poland's stance on the 2020 Belarusian presidential election

Poland and Belarus have a shared history and a long border, and Poles make up 3.9% of the population of Belarus. In the lead-up to the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, Poland was one of the first countries to back the Belarusian opposition. Poland's Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has been supportive of the opposition, offering refuge to opposition leaders and financial support to independent media. Poland has also treated injured activists and called for a new and fair election.

Poland's stance on the election was influenced by its interest in the region and its shared history with Belarus. Poland has a long-standing relationship with Belarus, dating back to their time as part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Poland was also one of the first countries to recognise Belarusian independence in 1992. However, relations between the two countries have been strained due to their differing stances on Russia, with Poland being a member of NATO and the EU and having an anti-Russian stance, while Belarus has long been firmly pro-Russia.

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election triggered massive street protests and a crackdown on the opposition. Poland played a significant role in supporting the opposition and calling for democratic change in Belarus.

Poland's relations with Belarus post-2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Poland and Belarus established diplomatic relations on 2 March 1992, and Poland was one of the first countries to recognise Belarusian independence. However, the two countries have experienced strained diplomatic relations in recent years, largely due to their differing stances on Russia. Poland is a member of NATO and the European Union and has an anti-Russian stance, while Belarus has long been firmly pro-Russia. This division has impaired their positive bilateral relationship.

In the lead-up to and during the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, a series of anti-government protests took place across Belarus. The Belarusian authorities responded with violent political crackdowns, which Poland strongly condemned. Following Lukashenko's alleged victory for a sixth term, Poland and Lithuania were among the first countries to officially back the Belarusian opposition. In response, Lukashenko claimed that Belarus had closed its EU borders and deployed additional troops. Poland deployed 15,000 troops to guard its eastern frontier with Belarus in 2021 after a sudden influx of refugees from Belarus. A standoff ensued, with Poland accusing Belarus of engaging in hybrid warfare.

In 2022, Poland began constructing a steel wall along its border with Belarus, which was completed in June of that year. Tensions escalated further after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Poland announcing a major increase in funding for its armed forces. In July 2022, a Belarusian military official accused Poland of displaying imperial ambitions and attempting to position itself as a leader in Central and Eastern Europe. He also expressed concern about Polish politicians' attempts to reclaim "ancestral lands" in western Ukraine and Belarus.

In August 2023, Poland planned to deploy 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus to counter what it perceived as a security threat from Russia and the presence of Wagner militia fighters in Belarus. Poland accused Belarus of violating its airspace by sending military helicopters across the border. The situation along the Poland-Belarus border remains tense, with Poland closing its most important border crossing with Belarus and recommending its citizens leave Belarus in October 2022.

Poland's position on Belarusian civil society and independent media

Poland has been supportive of Belarusian civil society and independent media, especially in the wake of the violent crackdown on post-election protests in 2020. The Polish government has taken several steps to demonstrate its support:

Firstly, they have provided financial assistance, with the Morawiecki government pledging 11 million euros to strengthen Belarusian civil society and independent media. This includes a plan to provide funding for independent media outlets, with an initial cost of around 50 million zlotys ($13 million).

Secondly, Poland has offered refuge to opposition leaders and figures, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Valery Tsepkalo, who fled to Poland after the suppression of the Belarusian protests. The Polish government has also allotted a villa in Warsaw for 10 years for the Belarusian opposition to use.

Thirdly, Poland has hosted and supported independent Belarusian media outlets, such as the news channel Nexta, which played a crucial role in organizing the 2020 protests. Additionally, Poland has supported Belsat TV, an independent broadcaster for Belarus, which has provided credible information and independent news content during the mass protests. However, there is some concern as the Polish government recently slashed Belsat TV's budget by almost 30% for 2024, which may impact their output and reach.

Lastly, Poland has advocated for the European Union to take a stronger stance in support of Belarusian civil society and media freedom. Prime Minister Morawiecki called for the EU to host a special summit on Belarus and demanded that Belarus rerun its elections with foreign observers present.

Overall, Poland has taken a proactive approach in supporting Belarusian civil society and independent media, recognizing the importance of a free and independent Belarus in the region.

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