Belarus' Electoral Process: A Democratic Examination

Belarus is set to hold its next presidential election on 26 January 2025. The country's current leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power since 1994 and intends to run for a seventh term. Lukashenko's regime has been described as an authoritarian dictatorship, with the president dominating the political landscape and elections failing to meet international standards of fairness and transparency. The 2020 presidential election, which was marred by allegations of widespread fraud, sparked mass protests and a violent government crackdown. The opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has called for a boycott of the upcoming election, deeming it illegitimate.

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election

However, the election was marred by allegations of widespread fraud, with opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claiming victory with at least 60% of the vote. Tsikhanouskaya's campaign formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and called for "long-term protests" against the official results. All seven members of the Coordination Council Presidium were subsequently arrested or forced into exile. The election led to mass demonstrations and a violent crackdown by the authorities, with thousands detained and numerous independent media outlets and NGOs shut down.

The election was also notable for the absence of international observers, as the Belarusian government failed to send a timely invitation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE had not recognised any elections in Belarus as free and fair since 1995. The European Union and several countries imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials deemed responsible for "violence, repression and election fraud".

Lukashenko's victory extended his three-decade rule, which has been characterised as an authoritarian dictatorship by Western observers. His regime has been marked by the suppression of opposition, control of the media, and the manipulation of electoral processes.

The 2024 Belarusian parliamentary election

On 25 February 2024, Belarus held its parliamentary elections, electing 110 deputies to the House of Representatives and about 12,000 representatives of local councils. The elections were the first since the 2020-2021 protests against the authoritarian regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994.

There were no opposition candidates in these elections. All contenders belonged to four registered political parties, each pro-government, or were pro-government independents. The Belarusian opposition called for a boycott of the elections, and the authorities refused to invite observers from the OSCE. The elections were marked by tight government control, with the opposition referring to them as "biazvybary", meaning "without elections" in Belarusian.

The elections saw the Belaya Rus party, led by Oleg Romanov, become the largest force in the House of Representatives, winning 51 out of 110 seats. The other three pro-president parties—the Republican Party of Labour and Justice, the Communist Party of Belarus, and the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus—won fewer than 10 seats each. Overall, 37 women were elected, a decrease from 44 in 2019.

The electoral campaign was characterised by three ideological pillars. The first was "armed pacifism", which involved claiming that Belarus was at peace thanks to Lukashenko, while simultaneously boosting the country's military capabilities. The second was a populist, left-wing narrative, with the government slowing inflation by forbidding retailers from raising prices without permission. The third pillar involved highlighting "family values" and assailing LGBT rights, with laws being drawn up to ban "LGBT propaganda".

The elections were preceded by changes to the Electoral Code, including the abolition of the minimum voter turnout threshold and a ban on photographing ballot papers. Additionally, polling stations for voting abroad were eliminated, and new requirements were introduced for parliamentary candidates, such as a ban on dual citizenship.

The United States Department of State condemned the elections, describing them as being "held in a climate of fear under which no electoral processes could be called democratic." Similarly, the European Council announced the prolongation of restrictive measures against Belarus until 28 February 2025, citing ongoing repression, deteriorating human rights, and the country's involvement in Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

The 2025 Belarusian presidential election

The upcoming election follows the disputed 2020 presidential election, which saw mass protests and a violent government crackdown. Lukashenko claimed victory in the 2020 election, while opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that she had received between 60 and 70% of the vote. Tsikhanouskaya has denounced the 2025 election as a "farce" and called on Belarusians and the international community to reject it. She is currently living in exile and leads a 'government in exile' recognised by several European countries and the European Parliament.

The Belarusian authorities have been criticised for suppressing political dissent, with opposition leaders and activists jailed or forced to flee the country. The government has also dissolved all opposition parties, leaving only four pro-government parties. The conditions for free and fair elections are currently considered absent in Belarus.

The presidential election will be held amidst a backdrop of Western sanctions on Belarus due to its role in the Ukraine invasion and its domestic political repression. There are concerns that Lukashenko is seeking legitimacy and Western recognition of the election result by releasing political prisoners in recent months. However, human rights organisations estimate that there are still around 1,300 political prisoners in the country as of 2024.

Alexander Lukashenko's presidency

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in the settlement of Kopys in the Vitebsk Region of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. He graduated from the Mogilev Pedagogical Institute in 1975 and also completed studies at the Belarusian Agricultural Academy in Horki in 1985.

Lukashenko's early career included a stint in the Soviet Border Troops and the Soviet Army, as well as leading a chapter of the All-Union Leninist Young Communist League (Komsomol) in Mogilev. He was also the deputy chairman of a collective farm and, later, the director of the Gorodets state farm and construction materials plant in the Shklow district.

Lukashenko was first elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1990. He gained a reputation as an opponent of corruption and was elected interim chairman of the anti-corruption committee of the Belarusian parliament in 1993. In 1994, he won the country's inaugural presidential election after the adoption of a new constitution.

Lukashenko's policies have centred around maintaining state ownership of key industries, preventing economic shock therapy, and preserving Soviet-era symbolism. He has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator", and his government has been described as authoritarian. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. The government suppresses opponents and limits media freedom, which has resulted in multiple Western governments imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials.

Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election was preceded by allegations of vote-rigging, which amplified anti-government protests—the largest seen during his rule. Consequently, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States do not recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus following the disputed election.

Lukashenko's rule has been marked by increasing isolation from Western countries and closer ties with Russia. He played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which enables Belarusians and Russians to travel, work, and study freely between the two countries. Lukashenko has also been accused of making controversial statements, including antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic remarks.

In January 2022, Lukashenko permitted Russian forces to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. This led to further sanctions being imposed on Belarus by Western leaders. Lukashenko has since moved to amend the constitution to strengthen ties with Russia and secure his continued rule, including authorising the placement of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

Opposition candidates

Belarus has held elections in the past, but they have been labelled as neither free nor fair by international monitors. The country's political system has been described as an authoritarian dictatorship, with opposition activists often pressured or detained by the government.

In the 2020 presidential election, the following were registered as opposition candidates:

• Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a human rights activist and politician. She claimed to have won the election with 60% of the vote and called for negotiations with the incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko. She later went into exile.
• Viktar Babaryka, former chairman of the Management Board of OJSC Belgazprombank. He was denied registration for the election due to alleged inconsistencies in his income and property declaration.
• Valery Tsepkalo, founder and former director of the Belarus High Technologies Park. He fled to Russia with his children, fearing arrest.
• Sergei Tikhanovsky, a political and business YouTube blogger. He was taken to prison after a provocation in Hrodna and large sums of money were found in his second house.
• Yuri Hantsevich, a farmer and blogger.
• Yuras Hubarevich, head of the Movement "For Freedom".
• Volha Kavalkova, co-chairman of the organizing committee for the establishment of the Belarusian Christian Democracy.
• Mikalai Kazlou, acting chairman of the United Civic Party of Belarus.
• Natallia Kisel, an individual entrepreneur.
• Vladimir Nepomnyashchikh, a pensioner.
• Ales Tabolich, a musician and frontman of the folk-metal band Znich.

The following candidates withdrew before the election:

• Alena Anisim, a member of the House of Representatives of Belarus (pro-opposition independent).
• Aleh Gaidukevich, a politician of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus.
• Siarhei Skrabets, a former member of the House of Representatives of Belarus.
• Mikola Statkevich, head of the People's Hramada and former presidential candidate.
• Aliaksei Yanukevich, former chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front Party.

In the 2024 parliamentary election, there were no opposition candidates. The Belarusian opposition called for a boycott of the elections or for voters to vote against all candidates.

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