Ruqayyah Snyder
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the world is watching, and Australia is no exception. With Donald Trump seeking a second non-consecutive term, Australians are increasingly curious about the election's outcome and its potential impact on their country. Opinion polls indicate rising support for Trump in Australia, sparking discussions about the reasons behind this trend and the implications for Australian politics. While some Australians seem drawn to Trump's rhetoric or embrace far-right sentiments, others disapprove of his policies and doubt his commitment to defending Australia's interests. The election of Trump or his opponent, Kamala Harris, will undoubtedly shape not just America's future but also Australia's political landscape and its relationships with allies and trading partners.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Support for Trump | Reports show a growing preference for Trump among Australians |
| Trump's Australia | The phenomenon of Trump’s Australia is characterised by the presence of Trump signs on lawns and in windows across the country |
| Interest in US Politics | Australians are avid consumers of the spectacle of US politics and are more invested in the 2024 US Presidential election |
| Trump's Influence on Australian Politics | The result of the US election is likely to influence the future direction of Australian politics |
| Trump's Influence on Australian Elections | Trump's policies and actions have overshadowed Australian elections and worked against certain candidates |
| Australians' Trust in the US | Australians have overwhelmingly lost trust in the US to act responsibly in the world |
| Australians' Views on Trump's Policies | Australians strongly disagree with key Trump policies, including his use of tariffs, withdrawal from international organisations, and his stance on Ukraine |
| Australians' Views on Trump's Re-Election | Half of Australians think Trump's re-election is a bad thing for the world |
| Australians' Views on Trump as a Threat to Peace | Three in 10 Australians think Trump is the greatest threat to world peace |
| Australians' Views on Trump's Support for Australia | Half of Australians are not at all confident that Trump would defend Australia’s interests |
| Women's Views on Security Post-Trump's Election | Most women feel less secure in Australia since Trump's election |
| Australians' Views on Foreign Policy | More Australians prefer a more independent foreign policy than a closer alliance with the US |
| Australians' Views on the US Alliance | Despite disagreeing with Trump's policies, 80% of Australians believe the alliance with the US is important for security |
| Trump's Compatibility with Australian Leaders | Trump's mercurial nature means that even ideologically compatible leaders may not get along with him |
| Australia's Relationship with the US | Australia relies on its alliance with the US, especially in the context of countering China's growing influence in the Pacific |
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What You'll Learn
Australians are increasingly supporting Trump
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Australians are increasingly tuning in, with a growing curiosity about the unfolding drama. Opinion polls show that support for Trump among Australians is higher than before. A recent Guardian Essential poll shows that nearly one-third (29%) of polled Australians would vote for Trump, a 15% increase from 2020. This is despite Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which led to the storming of the US Capitol and a second impeachment.
While this could be interpreted as a surge of Trump support in Australia, it is not entirely one-sided. The same poll shows that 37% of respondents would vote for Harris, and 48% have a favourable opinion of her. ABC Australia reported similar findings, with around 27% of polled Australians supporting Trump, while 48% are ready to back Harris.
The rise in support for Trump in Australia is intriguing, given that Australians' instincts in foreign policy run counter to Trump's impulses. Trump is sympathetic to isolationism, while Australians are inclined towards internationalism. Trump admires autocrats and strongmen, while Australia is an old democracy and a free society. Trump treated allies as freeloaders, and his "America First" policies neglected the importance of global alliances, which are fundamental to American power and influence.
Despite these differences, the US remains the most powerful nation on Earth, and its presence looms large in Australian politics. Australian politicians must perform a delicate balancing act when considering what a second Trump presidency could mean for their country. They have been cautious not to denounce Trump, mindful that they might have to work with him. This cautious stance becomes more challenging as local support for Trump appears to grow, creating a curious scenario that could be referred to as "Trump's Australia."
The alternatives of turning away from the US or embracing Trump are both unappealing to Australia. Australia would need to reinforce the liberal international order that Trump disparages and work with other allies and like-minded nations to maintain the current global balance.
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Trump's potential influence on Australia's future
While Australians are avid consumers of the spectacle of US politics, the vast majority are not fans of Donald Trump. Opinion polls indicate that a notable number of Australians support Trump, with signs of endorsement popping up across the country. However, a recent poll by the Lowy Institute found that almost two in three Australians held little to no trust in the US to act responsibly, and half of Australians believe Trump's election is a bad thing for the world.
Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports to the US, including a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, a 100% tariff on Chinese cars, and a 10% general tariff on all countries, could have a detrimental impact on Australia's economy. Australia is a trading nation, and such tariffs and the retaliations they would provoke would be highly damaging. Trump's unpredictability and his potential to cause turbulence in trade, China relations, and the AUKUS defence pact mean that Australia's leaders may find fraternising with him distasteful.
However, the Australian Prime Minister, whether it is Albanese or Dutton, may have no choice but to work with Trump should he be re-elected. Australia's physical isolation means it has always maintained a strong relationship with dominant maritime powers, first with Britain and then with the US. While China is Australia's biggest trading partner, the US still dominates the conversation, and Australia may need to serve as a bodyguard to the liberal international order that Trump disparages.
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Australians' disapproval of Trump's policies
Australians have expressed strong disapproval of many of former US President Donald Trump's policies, according to the Lowy Institute's 2025 poll. The survey reveals a deep distrust of Trump's leadership and a loss of faith in the American government, despite the importance Australians continue to place on the US-Australia alliance.
One of the most notable points of contention is Trump's approach to foreign policy. Australians overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump's attempts to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland, a self-governing territory, to the US, with 89% against this idea. This is seen as a direct threat to the rules-based order that Australia has long prospered under, as it undermines the prohibition on the threat or use of force and weakens arguments against Russian and Chinese expansionism in Ukraine and Taiwan.
Australians also disagree with Trump's use of tariffs as a tool to pressure other countries, with 81% disapproving. This includes his proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, as well as his plans for a general 10% tariff on all countries. Trump's protectionist stance on trade is at odds with Australia's interests as a trading nation and its commitment to open, rules-based trade.
The Lowy Institute's poll further highlights Australian disapproval of Trump's stance on other global issues. Three-quarters (74%) disagree with his negotiation tactics regarding Ukraine, which included sympathizing with Russian President Vladimir Putin and potentially forcing Ukraine to accept a loss of territory. Additionally, Australians oppose the US cutting spending on foreign aid (64%) and undertaking mass deportations of undocumented migrants (56%).
On domestic issues, Australians are divided on Trump's demand that US allies increase defence spending, with 49% approving and 49% disapproving. However, there is a clear preference for Anthony Albanese over Peter Dutton as the leader better equipped to manage Australia's relationship with Trump and China.
While Australians have shown a growing preference for Trump and his policies in the lead-up to the 2024 US election, the subsequent shift in sentiment by 2025 suggests a dynamic and complex relationship between Australia and the Trump administration.
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Trump's scepticism about US alliances
While Australians have shown a growing preference for Trump over his opponent, Kamala Harris, in the 2024 US presidential election, they disagree with many of his policies. A 2025 poll by the Lowy Institute found that 89% of Australians disapproved of Trump's pressure on Denmark to hand over Greenland to the US, 81% disapproved of his use of tariffs to pressure other countries, 76% disapproved of the US withdrawing from the World Health Organization, and 74% disapproved of the US withdrawing from international climate change agreements.
Trump's focus on "making America great again" neglects the importance of global alliances to American power and influence. His hostility towards free trade and imposition of tariffs on imports from China would be extremely damaging to a trading nation like Australia.
Trump's return to power would be worrying for a region already sceptical of US reliability and commitment. His impulse towards the Middle East can be summarised as "look strong, but don't do too much", and he has shown a willingness to align with autocracies like Russia, even parroting Kremlin talking points. Trump's abandonment of the democratic allies of the US in favour of foreign dictatorships has been described as a "seismic shift in international affairs".
Despite Trump's scepticism about US alliances, the Lowy Institute poll found that 80% of Australians believe the alliance with the US is "very" or "fairly" important for Australia's security.
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Trump's impact on Australia's election
While it is challenging to determine the exact impact of Donald Trump on Australia's election, several factors suggest that he has played a role in shaping Australian politics and public opinion.
Firstly, opinion polls indicate growing support for Trump among Australians, with Trump signs and merchandise becoming increasingly visible across the country. This trend has sparked questions about the underlying reasons for this shift and its potential implications for Australia.
Secondly, Trump's policies and actions as US President have influenced Australian perspectives on key issues. For example, Australians have overwhelmingly disapproved of Trump's stance on tariffs, his withdrawal from international organizations, and his approach to foreign policy matters such as Ukraine and Greenland. The "Trump effect" has also been noted in the Australian election campaign, with Labor casting their opponent, Dutton, as adopting Trump-like policies and aligning too closely with the US.
Thirdly, the potential impact of a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election on Australia's economy and trade relations has been a significant concern. Trump's protectionist policies, including his proposed tariffs on imports from China and other countries, have been met with apprehension by Australian policymakers and economists. There are fears that such tariffs could disrupt global trade and negatively impact Australia's exports to China, a critical trading partner. Additionally, Trump's opposition to green energy and support for fossil fuels have had reverberations in Australia's renewable energy sector, causing uncertainty and challenges for the industry.
Finally, the relationship between Trump and Australia's political leaders has been a point of interest. The prospect of Trump interacting with Australia's Prime Minister, whether it is Albanese or Dutton, has been described as "distasteful." Albanese, a member of the Labor Party, has been critical of Trump in the past, and their differences in origins, personalities, and values are notable. On the other hand, Dutton's worldview is seen as more sympathetic to Trump's, although ideological compatibility is not a guarantee of a smooth relationship.
In conclusion, while it is difficult to quantify Trump's precise influence on Australia's election, his presence in US politics has undoubtedly been a factor in shaping Australian public opinion, economic considerations, and foreign policy approaches. The potential implications of a Trump presidency on Australia's interests have been a significant topic of discussion and concern in the country's political sphere.
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Frequently asked questions
Australians are avid consumers of the spectacle of US politics, and opinion polls show that Trump support among Australians is higher than before. However, a combination of structural factors means a Trump-like figure was always going to struggle to gain traction in an Australian context.
Trump's return to power is worrying for Australia, given his scepticism of alliances and his focus on "making America great again". Australia relies on its funding and benefits from alliances like AUKUS and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.
Australians strongly disagree with key Trump policies, including his pressure on Denmark to sell Greenland to the US, his use of tariffs, the US's withdrawal from the World Health Organization and international climate change agreements, and his negotiation of a deal on Ukraine with Vladimir Putin.
Half of Australians think Donald Trump's reelection is a bad thing for the world, and three in ten think he is the greatest threat to world peace. Most women feel less secure in Australia since Trump's election, and half of Australians are not confident that Trump would defend Australia's interests if the country were threatened.
Trump looms over Australia's election, with the first question from the audience in a recent leaders' debate between Anthony Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton being about Trump. Dutton has been accused of drawing from Trump's playbook in his push to scale back DEI in the public service.
