Leslie Massey
Australia's population growth has averaged 1.4% annually since 30 June 1994, reaching 27.2 million by 30 June 2024. Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of this growth, with the number of people born overseas increasing by 8% over the past three decades. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in migration, resulting in the first net outflow of migrants since WWII. This, coupled with declining fertility rates and an ageing population, has led to projections of Australia's slowest population growth in over a century. While the pandemic's impact on fertility and mortality rates is expected to be temporary, the future of overseas migration remains uncertain. Several factors, including government policies, economic conditions, and social influences, will influence migration trends and, consequently, Australia's population trajectory.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth and decline
Australia's population growth has averaged 1.4% per year since 30 June 1994, increasing from 17.8 million to 27.2 million in 2024. Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of this growth, increasing from 47,000 people in 1993-94 to 435,000 in 2023-24. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia experienced its first net outflow of migrants since World War II in 2020-21, with -85,000 people. This, along with declining fertility rates, has led to projections of slower population growth in the coming years.
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel restrictions have significantly impacted Australia's migration patterns. The net overseas migration (NOM) is expected to gradually recover over the next four years, reaching pre-COVID-19 levels. However, the lower number of migrants in the short term will have long-term implications for Australia's population. Migrants tend to be younger and more likely to have children, so a reduced inflow will result in a smaller pool of potential parents and subsequently lower birth rates.
Fertility rates in Australia have been declining, dropping from 1.85 babies per woman in 1993-94 to 1.49 in 2023-24. The pandemic may have caused an initial shock to fertility rates, but they are expected to rebound to pre-COVID levels before continuing their long-term decline. This trend is significant for Australia's future population growth, as the number of deaths has been increasing faster than the number of births.
Australia's population growth and structure are also influenced by mortality rates and life expectancy. While the COVID-19 pandemic has not significantly impacted Australia's mortality rates compared to other countries, the long-term health implications for survivors are still unknown. Additionally, life expectancy at birth has increased, with males and females both gaining about 6 years since 1993.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses demographic trends and expert consultations to make assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration rates, creating projections for Australia's population up to 2071. These projections provide a range of possible outcomes, considering the volatility of migration and the consistent trends in mortality and fertility. The diversity of Australia's population is also notable, with 31% of people in 2023 being born overseas, and 48% having at least one parent born overseas.
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Fertility rates
Australia's future population growth is heavily dependent on fertility rates, which have been declining in recent years. This decline has been influenced by several factors, including the postponement of childbearing among women, the increasing cost of living, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2013, Australia's fertility rate was 1.93 births per woman, which was slightly above the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman needed for a population to replace itself in the long run. However, since then, the fertility rate has dropped to 1.66 births per woman in 2022, which is below the replacement level and raises concerns about the country's future population sustainability.
Various factors contribute to the declining fertility rate in Australia. One significant factor is the trend of You may want to see also Australia's mortality rate is generally low, and life expectancy at birth is high compared to global standards. However, there are some concerns and challenges related to mortality rates that could impact the country's future. One key issue is the ageing population. As people live longer, the proportion of older adults in the population increases. This has implications for You may want to see also Australia's population has grown by around 1.4% annually over the past three decades, from 17.8 million in 1994 to 27.2 million in 2024. Net overseas migration (NOM) has been the primary driver of this growth, increasing from a net inflow of 47,000 people in 1993-94 to 435,000 in 2023-24. NOM is influenced by international students, professionals, and humanitarian cases. The COVID-19 pandemic caused the first net outflow of migrants from Australia since World War II in 2020-21, with a loss of 85,000 people. However, the easing of international border restrictions in 2021-22 led to a recovery in overseas migration and population growth. Skilled migration is a cornerstone of Australia's migration program, with nearly 70% of permanent visas in 2023-24 allocated to skilled migrants. This trend reflects the country's need for talent to support economic growth and fill job vacancies. The employer sponsorship visa, for instance, enables Australian companies to hire highly qualified immigrants to fill skill shortages and stimulate economic growth. Australia's student visa policies have also impacted general migration trends, with international student enrolment reaching a record high of over 713,000 in February 2024. Family reunification remains essential, with family visas allowing permanent residents to reunite with their loved ones. Additionally, Australia upholds its humanitarian commitments, with a long tradition of accepting refugees and asylum seekers through resettlement programs. You may want to see also Australia's population is ageing, and this trend is set to continue. The median age of Australians has risen from 34 to 37 in the last 20 years, with Tasmania seeing the largest increase, from 35 in 1996 to 42 in 2016. In 2017, Australia's median age was 37.2 years old, and this could increase to 40.7 years by 2066. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to nearly double from 3.8 million in 2017 to between 6.4 and 6.7 million in 2042. By 2057, it is predicted that 8.8 million Australians will be aged 65 or over. This demographic shift is due to several factors, including sustained low fertility, increasing life expectancy, and declining mortality rates. The cultural shift towards encouraging women to pursue careers has also contributed to the decline in fertility rates. The ageing population will significantly impact Australian society and the economy. As people age, their working participation decreases, and the demand for elderly support, such as nursing homes and caregivers, increases. This will result in a reduction in revenue and an increase in spending, affecting the country's annual real growth. Additionally, the rising number of older Australians will place greater demands on the healthcare system, with health spending projected to more than double to AUD$270 billion (USD$174 billion). To address the challenges posed by the ageing population, Australia will need to make significant investments in the aged care sector. Currently, the sector is already facing a shortage of care workers, and it is projected that an additional 285,800 workers will be needed for aged care, disability, and mental health support by 2050. Despite being the fifth-largest area of government expenditure, the aged care sector has been chronically underfunded, with Australia spending only 1.2% of its GDP on aged care compared to other high-income countries like Denmark, which spends 4.3%. To improve funding for aged care, experts have proposed increasing taxes, specifically adding to Australia's Medicare levy. The ageing population will also reshape communities and workplaces. There may be a shift from building schools and playgrounds to constructing more health centres and senior-friendly spaces. Australian society may need to redefine its approach to ageing and retirement, and difficult conversations about who will bear the cost of supporting older Australians may be necessary. Overall, the ageing population in Australia presents both challenges and opportunities, and addressing this issue will require comprehensive strategies and adaptations in various sectors. You may want to see also Australia's population is projected to continue growing, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused the slowest population growth in over a century. The pandemic's long-term effects on population growth are uncertain. Factors such as fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration will influence Australia's future population. Australia's future population is influenced by fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration trends. Fertility rates have been declining, and the ageing population may lead to a decrease in natural population growth. Migration, particularly net overseas migration, has been a significant driver of population growth in the past. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp drop in migration, and its future recovery is uncertain. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Australia's population growth. International border restrictions led to a sharp decline in net overseas migration, which is expected to recover gradually. The pandemic also caused an initial shock to fertility rates, but they are projected to return to pre-COVID levels before resuming their long-term decline. Australia's COVID-19 mortality rate has remained relatively low compared to other countries.Energy Australia Bill: Locating Your NMI
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