The Geopolitical Chessboard: Afghanistan's Complex Relationship With India And Pakistan

Afghanistan's relationship with India and Pakistan has been a complex and often fraught issue, with the country's ties to both nations influenced by historical, geopolitical, and strategic factors. The rivalry between India and Pakistan for influence in Afghanistan has been a significant aspect of the region's politics, with each country pursuing mutually exclusive objectives and leveraging different tools to achieve their goals. Pakistan has traditionally been seen as the regional actor with the most influence in Afghanistan due to its support for the Taliban, while India has cultivated soft power and worked closely with previous Afghan governments. However, with the Taliban's return to power in 2021, the dynamics have shifted, and Afghanistan's relationship with both countries has entered a new phase.

India's anti-Taliban stance

India has historically been anti-Taliban. When the Taliban first took power in 1996, India swiftly shut down its embassy in Kabul and shunned all diplomatic ties with the group. India has long supported anti-Taliban forces and, until recently, refused to send diplomats to any meetings with Taliban representatives.

However, in the last year, India has softened its stance towards the Taliban. In June 2022, Indian officials went to Kabul to meet with Taliban leaders. India has also partially reopened its embassy in Kabul to coordinate humanitarian aid. This shift in policy is largely due to the Taliban's deteriorating relationship with Pakistan, which has traditionally been an arch-rival of India. The Taliban's growing independence from Pakistan means there may be room for India to forge a working relationship with the Taliban.

Despite this, India has not formally recognised the Taliban government and is wary of Taliban-Pakistan cooperation. India's primary concern is that Afghanistan under the Taliban will become a safe haven for terrorists, particularly anti-Indian terrorists. The Taliban has provided some assurances that it will not allow Afghan territory to be used against India and that it will take action on any intelligence provided by India.

India has also been critical of the Taliban's treatment of women, although it has avoided making any public statements on the issue to avoid offending the Taliban's sensibilities. India is also concerned about the "security vacuum" created by the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, which has resulted in the rise of the Islamic State Khorasan, a branch of the self-proclaimed Islamic State operating in South and Central Asia.

Pakistan's influence over the Taliban

The origins of the Taliban can be traced back to the early 1990s in northern Pakistan, where the movement emerged in religious seminaries, largely funded by money from Saudi Arabia. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has played a crucial role in fostering the Taliban's growth and providing various forms of support. This includes military assistance, such as training, weapons, and strategic planning, as well as diplomatic backing and financial aid. Pakistan's patronage has made the Taliban a highly effective military force, enhancing its influence in Afghanistan.

The relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban is complex and fraught with tensions. While Pakistan has used the Taliban as a strategic proxy to pursue its interests in the region, the Taliban has demonstrated a degree of independence in its decision-making. For example, the Taliban has opposed the recognition of the Durand Line as a permanent border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and resisted Pakistan's efforts to erect fencing along this border. Additionally, there are anti-Pakistan elements within the Taliban, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has carried out attacks within Pakistan.

Despite these tensions, Pakistan remains a key ally for the Taliban. The Taliban's reliance on Pakistan is deep-rooted due to their shared ideological and religious affinities, as well as Pakistan's role in facilitating the Taliban's political restoration and international recognition. Pakistan has actively cooperated with the Taliban, hosting their leaders and facilitating peace dialogues.

The influence of Pakistan over the Taliban has been a source of concern for other regional powers, particularly India. India has traditionally opposed the Taliban and supported anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan. However, in recent years, India has shown a willingness to engage with the Taliban, causing unease in Pakistan, which does not want a New Delhi-friendly Kabul due to its security concerns.

The complex dynamics between Pakistan, the Taliban, and other regional powers, such as India, have significant implications for the stability and security of Afghanistan and the broader region. The influence exerted by Pakistan over the Taliban continues to shape the political and security landscape in Afghanistan and beyond.

Afghanistan's need for regional support

The country is also facing extreme food insecurity, with an estimated 15.3 million people suffering from crisis or worse levels of food insecurity. Recurrent climatic shocks, including droughts, earthquakes, and floods, have further contributed to the humanitarian crisis. Additionally, the Taliban's restrictions on women's participation in the workforce and access to education have negatively impacted the country's social and economic fabric.

To address these challenges, Afghanistan requires regional support in the form of economic and humanitarian aid. India and Pakistan, as regional powers, have a crucial role to play in providing assistance. India, despite its historical opposition to the Taliban, has taken steps to engage with the group and provide humanitarian aid. Pakistan, on the other hand, has had a complex relationship with the Taliban, leveraging its influence to further its geopolitical interests. However, Pakistan has also faced challenges due to terrorism and the presence of anti-Pakistan elements within the Taliban.

The complex dynamics between India, Pakistan, and the Taliban present both opportunities and challenges for regional support to Afghanistan. While India and Pakistan have competing objectives and tools of influence in Afghanistan, their shared geopolitical interests and the recognition of Afghanistan's dire humanitarian situation could present an opportunity for collaboration. Both countries have taken steps to engage with the Taliban and provide various forms of assistance.

The international community, including the United States, has also played a significant role in providing humanitarian and economic assistance to Afghanistan. The United States, in particular, has committed billions of dollars in humanitarian aid since 2002 and has supported the resettlement of Afghan refugees. However, the withdrawal of U.S. and international forces from Afghanistan has contributed to the country's instability and the rise of the Islamic State Khorasan, further exacerbating the security situation.

In conclusion, Afghanistan's need for regional support is evident and urgent. The country is facing a dire humanitarian crisis on multiple fronts, and the complex regional dynamics add further complexity to the situation. Sustained engagement and collaboration between regional powers, including India and Pakistan, are crucial to address Afghanistan's immediate humanitarian needs and lay the foundation for long-term stability and development.

India-Pakistan rivalry in Afghanistan

The rivalry between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan is a complex and long-standing issue that has significant implications for the region and beyond. The roots of this rivalry can be traced back to the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, which created independent Indian and Pakistani states. The two countries have since fought multiple wars and clashed over territorial disputes, particularly in Kashmir. This animosity has often played out in Afghanistan, with both countries vying for influence and pursuing their geopolitical interests.

India has historically had a strong presence in Afghanistan, providing significant reconstruction assistance and forging close partnerships. The Afghan government, under former President Hamid Karzai, welcomed India's aid and investment, viewing India as a natural ally against Pakistani influence. India's involvement in Afghanistan included economic initiatives, such as roads linking Afghanistan to Iran, as well as security and military assistance. India's presence in Afghanistan has been a source of tension with Pakistan, which views Indian assistance as an attempt to encircle and contain Pakistan.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has sought to maintain close ties with Afghanistan, considering it a strategic ally and a buffer against Indian influence. Pakistan has been accused of supporting militant groups in Afghanistan, such as the Taliban, and using them to further its interests in the region. The Pakistani intelligence services have also alleged that India supports terrorists attacking Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. These accusations highlight the complex dynamics of the India-Pakistan rivalry, where both countries accuse each other of sponsoring terrorism.

The involvement of the United States and other international forces in Afghanistan has added another layer of complexity to the India-Pakistan rivalry. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 created a power vacuum, allowing Pakistan and India to project their influence more assertively. The absence of a strong central authority in Afghanistan has further intensified the rivalry, with both countries seeking to fill the void and advance their respective agendas.

The implications of the India-Pakistan rivalry in Afghanistan are far-reaching. The potential for a broader conflict between the two nuclear-armed adversaries is a significant concern, especially if a large-scale terrorist attack on Indian soil is traced back to Pakistan. Additionally, the rivalry has contributed to tensions in Kashmir, with recent moves by India leading to increased tensions between the two countries.

The complex dynamics of the India-Pakistan rivalry in Afghanistan present a challenging situation for the international community, particularly the United States, which has sought to improve relations between the two countries. The rivalry is deeply rooted in historical animosity, territorial disputes, and competing geopolitical interests. As both countries continue to pursue their objectives in Afghanistan, the potential for escalation and further instability in the region remains high.

Pakistan's terrorism dilemma

The Pakistani state's alignment with Islamic extremist groups has resulted in the loss of internal sovereignty to religious fundamentalist forces. While the feudal, military-bureaucratic oligarchy maintains a strong hold over the state apparatus, Islamic fundamentalist parties have acquired disproportionate power. This has led to a situation where the state must roll back its support for these groups to regain control over civil society. However, this is a challenging task as the groups have gained significant power and popular support within civil society.

The situation is further complicated by Pakistan's relationship with the United States. The U.S.-led war on terrorism has broadened into Pakistan, with military operations carried out on Pakistani territory, raising questions about the country's sovereignty. Pakistan's grant of military bases to the U.S. and the increasing American influence on national policy-making have created a dilemma for Pakistan's national security policies and sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's rivalry with India continues to play out in Afghanistan. India has cultivated Afghanistan as a natural partner and bulwark against Islamic militants, including Pakistan-backed groups. Pakistan, on the other hand, seeks to counter what it perceives as an Indo-Afghan nexus aimed at encircling and weakening Pakistan. This dynamic has resulted in India and Pakistan pursuing mutually exclusive objectives in Afghanistan and leveraging different tools to achieve their respective goals.

In recent years, there have been growing ties between India and the Taliban in Afghanistan, causing concern in Pakistan. The Taliban's willingness to strengthen relations with India, including defence ties, threatens Pakistan's security interests. Additionally, Afghanistan's Defence Minister, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, has expressed interest in sending Afghan army personnel to India for military training, further straining relations between Pakistan and the Taliban.

The complex dynamics between India, Pakistan, and the Taliban have significant implications for regional stability and security. Pakistan's terrorism dilemma is deeply rooted in historical events and continues to shape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia.

Frequently asked questions