The Nuclear Question: Afghanistan's Strategic Ambitions And Global Security Concerns

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons. However, the country's neighbour, Pakistan, does have a nuclear weapons arsenal. Pakistan is also a supporter, friend, and guide of Afghanistan. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has raised concerns about the potential for growing nuclear risks in Pakistan. The proximity of Pakistani nuclear facilities and weapons infrastructure to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has been highlighted as a cause for concern. The chaotic situation in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal has created opportunities for various terrorist organisations to seize power, potentially including access to nuclear and radiological material.

Afghanistan's neighbour Pakistan has nuclear weapons

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons. However, its neighbour and supporter Pakistan does. Pakistan is one of nine states that possess nuclear weapons, with an estimated arsenal of around 170 warheads.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme began in 1972 under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the programme to the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Munir Ahmad Khan. Bhutto was the main architect of this programme, and it was he who rallied Pakistani academic scientists to build an atomic bomb in three years for national survival.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971's Bangladesh Liberation War, and uneasy relationships with India, Afghanistan, and the former Soviet Union.

Pakistan first tested nuclear weapons in May 1998 in response to nuclear tests by its regional rival, India. The Pakistani government reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on 28 May generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent to TNT).

Since the 1990s, Pakistan has continually modernised its nuclear forces, though the number and types of weapons fielded have expanded significantly in recent years. Pakistan is also a major source of proliferation concern, due to the clandestine international nuclear smuggling network of A.Q. Khan, a metallurgist working on its nuclear programme.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is the world's fastest-growing, and if the current growth trend continues, its arsenal could grow to 200-250 warheads by 2025. Pakistan keeps its nuclear warheads stored separately from its missiles and will only assemble them if they are to be used.

Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is not bound by any of its provisions. It has also blocked negotiation of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty as it continues to produce fissile material for weapons.

The Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan could lead to nuclear risks in Pakistan

The Taliban's Presence in Afghanistan

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has raised concerns about nuclear risks in the region, particularly in neighbouring Pakistan. While Afghanistan itself does not possess nuclear weapons or civilian nuclear facilities, the presence of the Taliban so close to Pakistan is troubling due to the potential for collaboration between extremist groups.

Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, on the other hand, has a significant nuclear arsenal, as well as nuclear power plants and enrichment facilities. Over the years, Pakistan has received international assistance, including from the US, to enhance the security of its nuclear sites. However, the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan could increase the threat to Pakistan's nuclear assets.

Internal Instability in Pakistan

Pakistan has a history of internal instability, with a fragile government and a constant threat of terrorism. The country is home to various terrorist organisations, including the Pakistani Taliban, the Haqqani network, and other jihadist groups. The Taliban's rise in Afghanistan could encourage and reinvigorate these extremist outfits, increasing the risk of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands.

External Threats

The traditional threat perception for Pakistan has primarily been from its rival, India. However, the anarchy in Afghanistan and the presence of the Taliban create an unexpected external threat. The Taliban is comprised of disparate factions, and not all of them see eye to eye. There are differences in interpretation and execution of jihad, and they have strained relationships with other extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. This internal division within the Taliban could lead to unpredictable actions, including a potential interest in nuclear and radiological material.

Regional Implications

The implications of nuclear risks in Pakistan extend beyond its borders. A nuclear-armed terrorist regime in Pakistan is a threat not only to the region but also to global security. The proximity of Pakistani nuclear facilities to Afghanistan increases the danger of these weapons falling into the wrong hands, especially with the porous border between the two countries.

The Role of the International Community

To mitigate the nuclear risks, the international community must hold Pakistan accountable for its nuclear security and demand stricter commitments on non-proliferation. Pakistan's support for terrorist groups and its unstable political and security situation pose risks not only to the region but also to the world. The international community must work together to prevent a potential humanitarian disaster.

The US dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan in 2017

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons. However, in April 2017, the US dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), also known as the "mother of all bombs", on the country.

The MOAB was first tested in 2003 and was conceived as a weapon to be used for psychological operations during the Iraq War. It was designed to be used against large formations of troops and equipment or hardened above-ground bunkers. The target set was later expanded to include targets buried under softer surfaces, like caves or tunnels.

The use of the MOAB in Afghanistan was part of the US military's ongoing efforts to defeat ISIS-K in the country. ISIS-K, also known as the Khorasan group, is based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region and composed primarily of former members of Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The strike targeted an ISIS tunnel complex in the Achin district of Nangarhar province, a remote area in the country's east that borders Pakistan.

The MOAB was dropped by an MC-130 aircraft, stationed in Afghanistan and operated by Air Force Special Operations Command. The bomb weighs nearly 22,000 pounds and is GPS-guided. It is designed to detonate before hitting the ground, creating a massive blast of air pressure that can wipe out anyone in the vicinity.

The decision to use the MOAB was likely both a political and strategic move. It sent a clear signal that the Trump administration was willing to use unprecedented force and made a statement about the US's continued commitment to fighting in Afghanistan.

While the strike was defended by the US military as a "tactical" move, it also sparked controversy. Some questioned whether the use of such a powerful weapon was necessary in this case and raised concerns about the potential for civilian casualties. The US military stated that they took every precaution to avoid civilian casualties and that rigorous surveillance had been conducted to prevent any civilian deaths.

The MOAB is the most powerful conventional bomb ever used in combat by the US military, with a yield comparable to that of the smallest tactical nuclear weapons. However, the size of its explosion pales in comparison to that of a nuclear bomb.

The US and Russia have committed to adhering to treaty limits on their nuclear arsenals until 2026

The New START Treaty, signed in 2010, is the last remaining pillar of bilateral arms control between the US and Russia. The treaty limits both sides to 1,550 warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. Both sides met the central limits by 2018 and have committed to adhering to the treaty's limits on their nuclear arsenals until its expiration in 2026.

The treaty includes a main text with a preamble and sixteen articles, a protocol with definitions, verification procedures, and agreed statements, and technical annexes to the protocol. It allows each side to structure its nuclear forces as it wishes within the overall limits of the treaty.

The New START verification regime includes relevant parts of the previous START treaty (START I) as well as new provisions to cover items not previously monitored. For example, the new treaty contains detailed definitions of items limited by the treaty, provisions on the use of National Technical Means, an extensive database on the numbers, types, and locations of treaty-limited items, and notifications about those items. It also allows for on-site inspections to confirm this information.

The US and Russia have very different perspectives on the future of the treaty. The US has indicated it wants to reach a follow-on agreement with Russia. On the other hand, Russia has warned that the treaty could expire in 2026 without a replacement due to what it says are US efforts to inflict "strategic defeat" on Moscow in Ukraine. Russia's top arms control diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, said that the US had ignored Russia's interests and dismantled most of the architecture of arms control in recent years. He added that the US's continued military support for Ukraine could scupper the final major post-Cold War bilateral arms control treaty with Russia.

China is pursuing new ballistic missiles and sea-based nuclear delivery systems

China is one of the five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) recognised by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The other four are France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. China first tested a nuclear weapon in 1964 and is currently estimated to have around 500 nuclear warheads.

China is also equipping its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines with advanced JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) capable of targeting the continental United States. The JL-3 has an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometres and is expected to be capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads. This deployment comes earlier than expected and will enhance the survivability of China's sea-based nuclear deterrent.

In addition, China is constructing at least 250 new long-range missile silos and has completed construction of its intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields, which contain at least 300 silos from which it could launch warheads.

China's nuclear expansion has raised concerns among US officials, who worry about the country's intentions and the potential risks to nuclear stability. Some experts suggest that China's nuclear buildup may be an attempt to force the US to accept a 'mutual vulnerability' relationship, where neither country would have the capability to threaten nuclear war without risking its own destruction.

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