The Nuclear Question: Afghanistan's Strategic Ambitions And Global Security Concerns

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons. However, its neighbour Pakistan does, and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has raised concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear assets. Pakistan has claimed to have invested heavily in securing its nuclear material, and the US has provided aid to enhance the physical security of its nuclear sites. Nevertheless, the threat of terrorist organisations seizing control of nuclear weapons in Pakistan is a significant concern for the international community, particularly given the presence of various extremist groups in the region.

Afghanistan's neighbour Pakistan has nuclear weapons

Afghanistan does not have nuclear weapons. However, its neighbour Pakistan does, and is one of nine states that possess them. Pakistan first began developing nuclear weapons in 1972 under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the programme to the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Munir Ahmad Khan.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971's Bangladesh Liberation War. It also wanted to keep up with India, its regional rival, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme was also driven by the desire to never again allow another invasion of the country.

Pakistan first tested nuclear weapons in May 1998, and it currently has a stockpile of around 170 warheads. This number could grow to around 200 by 2025 if the current growth rate continues. Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is not bound by any of its provisions.

The country has a "full spectrum deterrence" nuclear doctrine aimed at deterring India, which Pakistan identifies as its primary adversary. Pakistan has developed several new delivery systems, and has four plutonium production reactors and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure.

The US has provided material assistance to aid Pakistan in guarding its nuclear material, warheads and laboratories. However, there have been concerns about the safety of Pakistani nuclear facilities and weapons, with the US reportedly developing contingency plans to secure them in the event of a crisis.

The US dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb over Afghanistan in 2017

Afghanistan does not have nuclear weapons. However, in April 2017, the US dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), also known as the "mother of all bombs", on the country.

The MOAB was dropped at 7:32 pm local time on 13 April 2017, by the US Air Force, targeting an Islamic State tunnel complex in the Achin district of the Nangarhar province, a remote area in the east of Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan. The tunnel complex was being used by ISIS-K, also known as the Khorasan group, which is composed primarily of former members of Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban.

The strike was designed to minimise the risk to US and Afghan forces conducting clearing operations in the area, while maximising the destruction of ISIS-K fighters and facilities. It was also intended to reduce the use of IEDs, bunkers, and tunnels by ISIS-K, as they intensified their defence against mounting losses.

The MOAB is a large-yield bomb, developed for the US military by Albert L. Weimorts, Jr. of the Air Force Research Laboratory. It weighs 21,600 pounds and is GPS-guided. It was first tested in 2003 and at the time, it was said to be the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in the American arsenal. The MOAB is not a penetrator weapon but is primarily an air burst bomb intended for soft to medium surface targets covering extended areas and targets in a contained environment, such as a deep canyon or within a cave system.

The use of the MOAB sparked some controversy, with critics questioning whether its use was necessary and proportional to the target. However, US officials emphasised that the strike was carried out in coordination with Afghan officials and that rigorous surveillance had been conducted to prevent any civilian deaths. They also noted that the MOAB was the right weapon to achieve the desired military objective of destroying the tunnel complex and maintaining the momentum of their offensive against ISIS-K.

The strike killed 36 ISIS fighters, according to Afghan officials, although ISIS denied that any of its fighters were killed or injured. The US military is still conducting an assessment of the extent of the damage and whether anyone else was killed.

The Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan could lead to growing nuclear risks in Pakistan

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons, but its neighbour Pakistan does. Pakistan has a stockpile of around 170 nuclear warheads, and the potential for this to fall into the hands of terrorists is a concern for the US and other countries.

Secondly, there is a danger that terrorist organisations within Pakistan will exploit insiders to gain access to nuclear facilities and weapons infrastructure. Pakistan has a large number of terrorist organisations within its borders, and while these were created and nurtured with the objective of unleashing them on perceived enemies, the increasing Islamisation of the country has led to these organisations turning on Pakistan itself. The Pakistani establishment has suffered terrible terrorist attacks as a result, and jihadist organisations and their sympathisers can exacerbate the risks of nuclear insecurity after the Taliban victory.

The US has reportedly developed a secret plan to arbitrarily seize control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if a terrorist group seemed close to capturing nuclear warheads. However, the US recognises that the behaviour of the deep state in Pakistan, its complicity in enabling nuclear terrorism/proliferation, or its inability to stop this from happening, would determine the outcome.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons capacity is increasing

Pakistan is one of nine states that possess nuclear weapons. It began developing its nuclear weapons in 1972 under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the program to the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) Munir Ahmad Khan. Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971's Bangladesh Liberation War.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is estimated to be the sixth-largest in the world, with approximately 160-170 warheads. However, some estimates place the number as high as 200. Pakistan's nuclear weapons program is not bound by the provisions of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as it is not a signatory.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are maintained and overseen by the National Command Authority (NCA), which consists of two committees: the Employment Control Committee (ECC) and the Development Control Committee (DCC). The NCA is responsible for war-time command and control and makes critical decisions about Pakistan's nuclear posturing.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are delivered via aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles, and sea-based cruise missiles. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is believed to have two dedicated units operating 75 aircraft in total, which are believed to be the preferred vehicles for nuclear weapon delivery. Pakistan has also developed the Babur-3, a sea-launched cruise missile that has been tested twice. Once this missile is fully developed and tested on board a submarine, Pakistan will have a nuclear triad with air, sea, and land capabilities.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons development has been a source of concern for the international community, particularly the United States, due to the country's history of political instability and the potential threat of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorist organizations. However, Pakistan has taken steps to secure its nuclear arsenal, and US intelligence officials believe that Pakistan's nuclear arsenals are well-secured.

The US has a secret plan to seize control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons

Afghanistan does not possess nuclear weapons. However, its neighbour and supporter Pakistan does. Pakistan has a stockpile of around 160 nuclear weapons, and the capability to produce enough fissile material for up to 15 warheads per year.

The possibility of a terrorist organisation obtaining a nuclear weapon is a significant threat to US security. Since the shock of 9/11, the US has developed a secret plan to seize control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons if it seemed that a terrorist group was about to capture them. US officials have been tight-lipped about the plan, but it is understood that the US Joint Special Operations Command maintains rotating deployments of specially trained units in the region. These units are trained to deal with nuclear weapons that have fallen into the wrong hands.

The US has good reason to be concerned about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Pakistan is an unstable country with a weak central government, and it is located at the epicentre of global jihadism. Its security services are infiltrated by jihadist sympathisers, and a number of jihadist organisations are headquartered there and have relations with the government. Pakistan has also been the foremost supplier of nuclear technology to rogue states such as Iran and North Korea.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are stored on bases and in facilities spread across the country, and the US believes there are at least 15 sites where warheads or other nuclear materials could be found. Pakistan moves its warheads around in unmarked vans with low-security profiles down busy roads, making them vulnerable to theft by jihadists.

The US has provided Pakistan with financial support and equipment to improve the security of its nuclear weapons. However, Pakistan has been reluctant to reveal the locations of its weapons or the amount of new bomb-grade fuel it is producing. Pakistan's leaders have also given repeated assurances that the country's nuclear weapons are safe and that terrorist organisations are under constant surveillance. But these assurances have fallen on deaf ears at the White House, as US intelligence has revealed that Pakistani leaders have often been working surreptitiously with terrorists to achieve common goals.

The US finds itself in a difficult position. It must maintain its engagement with Pakistan to keep watch over its nuclear program and receive information about terrorist activities. At the same time, it must disengage from Afghan-like civil wars and not get involved in another nation's domestic struggles with terrorists. The US must also tread carefully to avoid pushing Pakistan further into the arms of China, its principal adversary, and setting the stage for a direct and possibly deadly confrontation with China.

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