The Myth Of Taliban Control In Afghanistan: Understanding Fragmented Power Dynamics

The Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and predominantly Pashtun movement, controlled most of Afghanistan from 1996 until they were overthrown by US and allied forces in 2001. In 2021, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, twenty years after their initial ouster. Since then, the Taliban have imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, despite pledges to respect the rights of women and religious and ethnic minority communities. The Taliban's rule has been characterised by the suppression of free speech and organised political activity, human rights violations, and a rollback of women's rights. While the Taliban claim to have achieved full territorial control and established security, Afghanistan remains far from secure, with a significant rise in attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) targeting Shia and other minorities. The Taliban's inability or unwillingness to break with Al-Qaeda was highlighted by the recent killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul. The economic situation in Afghanistan is dire, with mass unemployment, a collapse of the housing market, and increased rates of malnutrition. The Taliban have struggled to govern effectively and provide basic services, and the country faces a growing humanitarian crisis.

The Taliban's relationship with al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have a long history of working together. The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group, first came to power in Afghanistan in the 1990s. They imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, and provided safe haven to al-Qaeda, the pan-Islamist militant organisation led by Osama bin Laden.

Al-Qaeda was founded in 1988 by veterans of the Soviet-Afghan War, including bin Laden. The group's name, which means "the base", was first used to refer to a training camp for mujahideen fighters. Bin Laden offered to support Saudi Arabia when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, but the Saudi government instead sought the aid of the United States. This prompted bin Laden to declare a jihad against the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the US.

In the 1990s, al-Qaeda established its headquarters in Sudan, before shifting its base to Afghanistan, where it enjoyed the protection of the Taliban. In 1998, al-Qaeda conducted the US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, which killed 224 people. The US retaliated by launching Operation Infinite Reach, targeting al-Qaeda targets in Afghanistan and Sudan.

In 2001, al-Qaeda carried out the September 11 attacks, resulting in nearly 3,000 deaths. The US responded by invading Afghanistan to depose the Taliban and destroy al-Qaeda. Bin Laden was killed by US forces in Pakistan in 2011.

The Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, twenty years after being removed by US-led forces. The group's takeover has been marked by a crackdown on women's rights and a neglect of basic services. The Taliban maintain close ties with al-Qaeda, and analysts are concerned that the group could provide safe haven for terrorists capable of launching international attacks.

In 2022, the UN reported that al-Qaeda had established eight new training camps in Afghanistan and maintained several safehouses in the country. The Taliban denied the report, but the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in August 2022 did little to persuade critics that the group had turned over a new leaf.

The Taliban's suppression of women's rights

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, they have imposed strict rules on women's rights and freedoms. The Taliban have banned women and girls from secondary and higher education, prohibited women from working in most sectors, and barred them from travelling without a male chaperone. They have also imposed strict dress codes and segregated public spaces by gender.

Under the Taliban's rule, women have been banned from working in most sectors, including government, education, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Women have also been prohibited from entering parks, gyms, and sports clubs. The Taliban have justified these restrictions by claiming that they are necessary to protect women's safety and prevent "improper" behaviour. However, the result has been a rollback of women's rights and opportunities in Afghanistan.

In addition to limiting women's access to education and employment, the Taliban have also imposed strict dress codes and restrictions on women's mobility. Women are required to wear a burqa or a headscarf and full-body covering in public and are not allowed to travel more than 45 miles without a male chaperone. The Taliban have also segregated public spaces, including buses and universities, by gender.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights have had severe consequences for Afghanistan's economy and society. The loss of female workers has impacted industries such as agriculture and healthcare, and the lack of access to education will hinder the country's long-term development. The restrictions have also led to a brain drain, with many educated and skilled women leaving the country.

The international community has condemned the Taliban's suppression of women's rights and called for their protection. However, the response has been limited, and there is a lack of consensus on how to engage with the Taliban regime. Some argue for continued dialogue and engagement, while others call for stronger actions, such as sanctions or aid cuts.

Despite the Taliban's promises to respect women's rights, their actions since taking power indicate a return to the oppressive policies of their previous rule. The situation for women in Afghanistan remains dire, and the international community must find effective ways to support and protect them.

The Taliban's internal power struggles

The Taliban's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, has been criticised for his tight grip on decision-making and repressive policies. Akhundzada's exclusionary Pashtun-centered rule has been characterised as highly repressive towards opposition and minorities, offering few opportunities for decision-making roles to those outside of his inner circle.

Akhundzada's hardline interpretation of Sharia law has resulted in the suppression of women's rights and the evisceration of individual freedoms. His policies have had devastating consequences, including a worsening humanitarian crisis and a struggling economy.

However, not all Taliban leaders agree with Akhundzada's approach. Some seek to retain control of Afghanistan in the long term and recognise the need for economic stability and international support. These leaders, including prominent figures such as Acting First Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Acting Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani, have attempted to persuade Akhundzada to rescind his controversial bans on girls' education and women's employment.

The internal power struggle within the Taliban centres on the question of ideological purity versus pragmatism. Akhundzada's uncompromising stance, rooted in his interpretation of religious dogma, stands in contrast to the more pragmatic approach favoured by other Taliban leaders. This divide has led to speculation about the possibility of a power change within the Taliban, although the risk of an internal putsch is considered high.

The Haqqani network, a powerful faction within the Taliban, also plays a significant role in the internal power dynamics. The group, designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the United States, has been accused of relentless attacks on Western forces and interests. They operate largely behind the scenes, exerting significant influence over security matters in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's internal struggles are further complicated by the presence of ultra-conservative hardliners who endorse a stringent version of Sharia law. These hardliners pose a challenge to any attempts at moderation and reform within the organisation.

The Taliban's failure to establish a formal government structure and the lack of a clear power distribution contribute to the ongoing power struggles. The group's political system is described as "highly underspecified and undertheorised", with decision-making concentrated in the hands of a few.

The Taliban's inability to effectively govern and address the country's economic and humanitarian crises further exacerbates the internal tensions. The group's heavy-handed tactics, including arbitrary detentions, torture, and extrajudicial killings, have fuelled resistance and dissent.

The Taliban's response to security threats has also revealed internal disagreements. While some factions favour brutal counter-insurgency measures, others have advocated for a more nuanced approach to curb anti-Taliban resistance.

The Taliban's impact on the economy

The Taliban's impact on Afghanistan's economy has been overwhelmingly negative. The country's economy has been on "life support" since the Taliban took control, with the World Bank reporting a 20.7% GDP contraction in 2021, followed by a further 6.2% contraction in 2022.

The Taliban's takeover has seen the loss of billions of dollars in aid from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, the US, and the EU. The country's central bank reserves have been frozen, and the US has blocked the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars in assets. Crippling sanctions against senior Taliban leaders have also paralysed the banking sector and prevented Afghanistan from engaging with the international financial system.

The value of Afghanistan's currency, the afghani, has plummeted, raising the cost of imports and exacerbating inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. The civilian government institutions that were previously the country's largest employer are now unable to pay salaries.

The Taliban's ban on women working has also had a devastating impact. The UN Development Program (UNDP) has estimated that restricting women’s employment could cost up to 5% of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The Taliban's crackdown on opium production, which has cut production by 80%, has also deprived many Afghan communities of a vital source of income.

However, the Taliban has had some success in stabilising the economy. The group has firmed up the Afghan currency, reduced inflation, partially recovered imports, doubled exports, and collected customs and taxes far more successfully than the previous government.

The World Bank has provided more than $1.7 billion in support to the Afghan people since August 2021. However, these funds have remained outside the systems and control of the Interim Taliban Administration (ITA) and have focused on service delivery for women and girls.

The Taliban's human rights violations

Suppression of Free Speech and Political Activity

The Taliban have suppressed free speech and political activity by arresting, detaining, beating, and forcibly disappearing activists, intellectuals, and journalists who criticise their regime. They have also intimidated journalists and restricted press freedoms, leading to the closure of over 200 news organisations.

Restrictions on Women's Rights

The Taliban have severely restricted the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan, effectively barring them from participation in public and political life. They have banned women and girls from attending secondary school and university, working in most government jobs and other areas, travelling without a male chaperone, and appearing in public without covering their faces. They have also closed shelters for women fleeing violence and forced women to wear the burqa in public.

Persecution of Religious and Ethnic Minorities

The Taliban have persecuted religious and ethnic minorities, including Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkmen, and Tajiks, through forced evictions, marginalisation, and prejudice. They have also targeted Shia Muslims by banning the commemoration of Ashura and excluding Shia jurisprudence from the education system.

Arbitrary Arrests, Detention, Torture, and Extrajudicial Killings

The Taliban have carried out arbitrary arrests, detention, torture, and extrajudicial killings of former government officials, security personnel, and civilians. They have also targeted civilians in their fight against opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF).

Violation of LGBTQI+ Rights

The Taliban have criminalised consensual same-sex relations and targeted LGBTQI+ individuals for violence, intimidation, harassment, and discrimination. They have also banned transgender individuals from changing their gender identity.

Violation of Workers' Rights

The Taliban have violated workers' rights by failing to enforce minimum wage, overtime, and occupational safety and health standards. They have also discriminated against the employment of women and ethnic minorities.

Frequently asked questions