A Geopolitical Chess Move: Exploring The Hypothetical Advantage Of Attacking China From Afghanistan's Terrain

Afghanistan and China have had a long history of diplomatic and trade relations, with China being Afghanistan's largest trading partner. However, China's primary interest in Afghanistan is security. China wants to prevent terrorism and violent extremism from spilling over into its territory and causing instability in the region. China is particularly concerned about the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, a group that seeks to liberate Xinjiang Province and impose Islamism. China has urged the Taliban to deny safe haven to Uyghur fighters and other groups that could threaten its interests. While China seeks to profit from Afghanistan's mineral deposits and incorporate it into its Belt and Road Initiative, it is cautious about its economic involvement due to the country's instability. China's propaganda machine has also been active in portraying the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as a sign of American decline and unreliability.

China's security concerns in Afghanistan

China's primary security concerns in Afghanistan are:

• Preventing terrorism and violent extremism from spilling over into China. China is particularly concerned about the spread of Islamic extremism into Western China and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The Taliban has been consistent in its messaging about not allowing Afghanistan to become a haven for international terrorist groups, but it remains to be seen if they can maintain control over the various militant groups operating within the country.
• Securing its border with Afghanistan to prevent violent extremists from entering Chinese territory. China is relying on the Taliban, as well as the security provisions of neighbouring countries such as Tajikistan and Pakistan, to secure its border.
• Ensuring that the Taliban eliminates Uyghur militant groups operating in Afghanistan and restrains any groups that could destabilise Central Asia or harm Chinese interests in the region. China has exaggerated the threat and involvement of Uyghurs in terrorist organisations, using it as a pretext to crack down on and imprison Uyghurs in China. The Taliban has made efforts to address China's concerns by moving Uyghur militants away from the Chinese border, but it is unclear if they will be able to maintain control over these groups in the long term.
• Protecting its citizens and investments in Afghanistan. China has provided assistance and investment to Afghanistan, but the ongoing security concerns make it difficult for China to commit to large-scale economic projects in the country.

China's economic interests in Afghanistan

China has also expressed interest in Afghanistan's oil extraction potential, with a Chinese firm signing a 25-year-long, multimillion-dollar contract to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin. This deal is expected to bring in an investment of $150 million in the first year and $540 million over the next three years.

Additionally, Afghanistan's geographic location along the BRI makes it a vital state for China's efforts to develop both Central Asia and its western territory. China aims to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), often termed the BRI's flagship mega-project. By integrating Afghanistan into regional economic cooperation and connectivity, China hopes to transform the country from a "land-locked country" to a "land-linked country."

However, China's economic interests in Afghanistan are closely tied to security concerns. China has expressed worries about instability in Afghanistan and the potential for it to become a safe haven for extremist groups, particularly the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which it accuses of fomenting separatism and terrorist attacks within China. Thus, China's economic involvement in Afghanistan is dependent on the country's stability and the Taliban's ability to provide security for Chinese projects and citizens.

China's diplomatic relations with Afghanistan

China and Afghanistan have had diplomatic relations since the 18th century, when Afghanistan was ruled by Ahmad Shah Durrani and China by Qianlong. The two countries share a 92km border and have a long history of trade relations, dating back to the Han dynasty and the Silk Road.

During the Cold War, China extended economic aid and multi-million-dollar loans to Afghanistan, although relations were briefly interrupted following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Since the withdrawal of Soviet troops, relations between the two countries have improved significantly in the 21st century. China has become Afghanistan's largest trading partner and has provided millions of dollars in aid.

China's involvement in Afghanistan has been largely focused on managing threats to its national security and economic interests in the region. One of China's main concerns has been the potential for Afghanistan to become a safe haven for militant groups, such as Uyghur groups seeking independence from China. China has also sought to prevent the export of extremism into its Xinjiang region, which shares a border with Afghanistan.

In recent years, China has deepened its diplomatic ties with the Taliban, hosting delegations in Beijing and providing humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. However, China has not formally recognized the Taliban government and has maintained that it respects the Afghan people's right to decide their future.

China's economic interests in Afghanistan include mining and resource extraction, with Chinese companies investing in copper, oil, and gas projects. The stability of Afghanistan is key to the success of China's Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Overall, China's diplomatic relations with Afghanistan are driven by its strategic interests in the region, including ensuring stability, countering terrorism, and accessing natural resources.

China's military involvement in Afghanistan

Diplomatic Relations

China has maintained direct communication with the Taliban administration and has participated in various international, multilateral, and bilateral talks on Afghan issues. Beijing was one of the first countries to pledge emergency humanitarian aid to Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, offering $31 million worth of grain, winter supplies, vaccines, and medicine. China has also funded construction projects, such as in the Ministry of Justice compound, and there are reports of Chinese firms exploring mining opportunities in the country.

Security Concerns

China's primary interest in Afghanistan is strategic. Afghanistan shares a small border with China's Xinjiang region, and Beijing aims to prevent the country from becoming a sanctuary for militant groups that could target Chinese territory and citizens, particularly the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). China has urged the Taliban to make a clean break with other terrorist groups and fight against cross-border terrorism and the spread of radicalism into Xinjiang.

Economic Interests

China has expressed interest in Afghanistan's mining sector and natural resources, including copper and lithium deposits. However, Chinese businesses have been cautious about committing to large-scale developments due to security concerns and the fragile political situation in Afghanistan. China has invested in smaller-scale projects, such as hospital construction, housing, and university buildings, but major infrastructure projects have stalled or failed due to security issues.

Geopolitical Dynamics

The stability of Afghanistan is crucial for China's economic interests in the region, especially its investments in Central Asia and Pakistan through the Belt and Road Initiative. A stable Afghanistan would reduce security threats and improve the investment climate, allowing China to advance its economic goals. China also seeks to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a "hotbed" for terrorism and violence, which aligns with U.S. interests.

In summary, China's military involvement in Afghanistan is limited to securing its strategic interests and preventing the country from becoming a base for terrorist groups that could threaten its territory and citizens. China seeks stability in Afghanistan to protect its economic investments in the region and has used a combination of diplomatic engagement, humanitarian aid, and limited economic investments to achieve its goals.

China's propaganda efforts surrounding the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

China's propaganda machine was quick to seize on the US's chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, casting it as evidence of American decline and unreliability as an ally. The Pentagon and the US Defense Department's China Military Power report acknowledged that China had used the withdrawal for propaganda, employing diplomatic tools to "erode US and partner influence".

State-controlled media in China, such as the Global Times and Xinhua, were instrumental in disseminating this narrative. They portrayed the US withdrawal as a humiliation and a sign of American weakness, claiming that nations like Taiwan could not rely on US support. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, tweeted that the "Taiwan authorities must be trembling" after the fall of Kabul. Xinhua, China's official news agency, called the US "the world's largest exporter of unrest", further contributing to the narrative of American decline.

The intended audience for this propaganda effort was twofold: domestic and international. For the domestic audience, the message was that the US was not worthy of worship and that, unlike the US, China would not intervene in other countries' affairs and leave a mess behind. For the international audience, the message was that America's best days were behind it and that China's rise was the story of the future.

The propaganda push was part of a broader diplomatic strategy by China in the wake of the US withdrawal. Beijing sought to encourage the formation of a politically inclusive government in Afghanistan and to ensure that the Taliban addressed its security concerns, particularly regarding Uyghur groups and other transnational terror organisations. China also coordinated its efforts with Pakistan and Russia, while remaining in contact with Western powers.

While China sought to exploit the situation for its gain, experts noted that the withdrawal also presented challenges for China, including the potential for instability in a neighbouring country and the presence of a Muslim fundamentalist state on its border.

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