The Resurgence Of The Taliban: Afghanistan's Uncertain Future

The Taliban's rapid expansion of territorial control in Afghanistan has raised concerns about a potential takeover. In 2021, the US intelligence assessment predicted that the Afghan government could fall within six months of the US and international troops' departure, and this prediction proved accurate. Despite Afghan government troops outnumbering the Taliban and being well-equipped, the Taliban's advancement and the surrender of Afghan soldiers indicate the possibility of a Taliban takeover. The Taliban's strategy of negotiating surrenders, exploiting local dynamics, and leveraging support from countries like Pakistan have contributed to their gains. The US withdrawal and direct negotiations with the Taliban have also played a role in the changing power dynamics. While some experts argue that a full Taliban takeover may not be imminent, the situation remains uncertain and dynamic, with potential implications for human rights, counterterrorism, and regional stability.

The Taliban's treatment of women and minorities

During their first rule of Afghanistan (1996-2001), the Taliban were notorious internationally for their misogyny and violence against women. Women were mandated to wear the burqa at all times in public and were not allowed to work or be educated after the age of eight. They were not allowed to be treated by male doctors unless accompanied by a male chaperone, which led to illnesses remaining untreated. They faced public flogging and execution for violations of the Taliban's laws.

After retaking Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban initially granted women permission to attend universities, albeit in gender-segregated classrooms, under the condition that they followed "Islamic standards". However, by September 2021, they restricted access to education for teenage girls by allowing only boys to resume schooling. Additionally, they prohibited women in Afghanistan from working in most sectors beyond health and education. In July 2022, the Taliban's leader rejected international criticism and demands for easing human rights restrictions, refusing any negotiations or compromises on the Taliban's "Islamic system" of governance. In December 2022, the Taliban government extended the ban on university education for women and barred them from working in NGOs.

The Taliban's treatment of women has been described by UN experts as "systematic discrimination with the intention to subject women and girls to total domination". Edicts issued by the Taliban since they took control in 2021 have imposed widespread restrictions on the rights of women and girls, including their freedom of movement, attire, and behaviour, access to education, work, health, and justice.

The Taliban have banned female students from all university education and prohibited them from many majors and annual entrance exams. They have also banned women from traveling outside the country without a male family member (mahram) and barred them from working as lawyers, judges, or from other positions in the justice system. They have invalidated divorces that were under review during the previous government, forcing battered women to return to abusive husbands. In general, women are banned from working in government offices and former female civil servants are required to sign their timesheets once a month but are prohibited from entering their previous workspace.

The Taliban have also targeted ethnic and religious minorities for intimidation and violence. They have used intimidation to extract money, food, and services from communities. They have extorted money from farmers and dramatically increased taxes on farming communities to a level that families cannot afford. They have also used violence and the threat of violence to suppress protests and force compliance with their rules.

The role of the Biden administration

In April 2021, President Biden announced that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan would be complete by September. He stated that the U.S. had ""accomplished" its objectives in the country, which were to ""get the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and to deliver justice to Osama Bin Laden". Biden also emphasised that the U.S. did not go to Afghanistan to "nation-build".

However, critics have argued that the Biden administration made strategic blunders and rushed the withdrawal, resulting in a humanitarian catastrophe. They argue that the U.S. had a moral obligation to secure the rights of Afghan women and attempt to achieve a better outcome for Afghans. The speed of the withdrawal has been described as ""unconditional" and ""ignominious", with the U.S. failing to secure a peace deal between the Taliban and the Ghani government before leaving. This, in turn, has led to the Taliban retaking control of the country, with the Afghan government ceding control of the capital city of Kabul.

In response to the Taliban's takeover, the Biden administration has provided humanitarian aid to Afghanistan and Afghan refugees in the region. However, the administration does not plan to release billions of dollars of frozen Afghan government assets, citing concerns that the funds could end up in the hands of terrorist groups.

The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan

Historically, Pakistan has played a significant role in supporting the Taliban, particularly during the group's insurgency against the US-backed government in Afghanistan. Pakistan's military and intelligence services, notably the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), have provided training, funding, weapons, and logistical support to the Taliban. The porous border between the two countries has facilitated the movement of fighters and resources. Pakistan's support for the Taliban can be attributed to various strategic objectives, including countering Indian influence in the region and promoting Islamist ideologies.

However, the dynamics between Pakistan and the Taliban have shifted since the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. The Taliban's success has emboldened Islamist and jihadist forces in Pakistan, challenging the Pakistani state's authority and stirring up religious fervor among its population. Additionally, the Taliban's refusal to accept the Durand Line as the international border between the two countries has led to clashes and increased tensions. The Taliban's growing alliance with the Pakistani Taliban or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has further strained the relationship, as Pakistan faces a wave of terrorist attacks and growing insecurity along its border with Afghanistan.

Despite the challenges, both Pakistan and the Taliban recognize the importance of maintaining a working relationship. Pakistan's ambitious plans for transcontinental trade with Central Asian republics depend on the Taliban's support, while the Taliban rely on Pakistan for economic and diplomatic engagement. However, the future of their relationship remains uncertain, with growing instability and the potential for further deterioration.

The US's leverage over Pakistan

The United States has several leverages over Pakistan, but these leverages come with risks. Here are some of the key areas where the US has influence over Pakistan:

Economic Assistance and Trade: Pakistan is the 44th largest economy in the world and has long depended on the IMF for economic bailouts. The US, which has significant influence within the IMF, could pressure the institution to refuse future bailouts until Pakistan takes concrete counterterrorism measures. Additionally, the US has been Pakistan's largest export market, importing more than $5 billion in Pakistani goods in 2021. The US has also been a leading investor in Pakistan for the past 20 years, with US direct investment increasing by 50% in the most recent fiscal year.

Military and Counterterrorism: Pakistan has been a meaningful counterterrorism partner of the US for years, particularly in the fight against Al-Qaida. However, Pakistan has also been accused of providing safe havens and support to terrorist groups like the Taliban and Haqqani Network. The US could pressure Pakistan to take decisive action against these groups and cooperate in areas of mutual interest, such as counterterrorism and border security.

Diplomacy: The US could use its diplomatic influence to engage Pakistan in negotiations and dialogue, leveraging its position as a major power. This could include offering incentives or imposing sanctions depending on Pakistan's cooperation.

International Aid: The US could leverage its power as one of the largest providers of foreign aid to pressure Pakistan into taking certain actions or implementing reforms.

However, it is important to note that Pakistan also has counter-leverage over the US, especially regarding the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan's cooperation is crucial for the US in terms of providing supply routes and military support. Additionally, Pakistan's nuclear program and partnership with China give it additional bargaining power. As such, the US must carefully consider the potential risks and repercussions when exercising its leverage over Pakistan.

The Taliban's military tactics

• Guerrilla Warfare: The Taliban have effectively employed guerrilla warfare tactics, including ambushes, small-unit fire and maneuver, and the use of explosives. They have utilized dispersed small units that are well-trained and adaptable, allowing them to retain the tactical offensive against stronger foes.
• Training Programs: The Taliban have invested heavily in training their fighters. Their training programs focus on consistency, realism, and leadership development. They ensure that recruits are skilled in weapons handling, camouflage, and physical and mental endurance. The Taliban also conduct realistic training exercises that simulate real-world conditions, such as nighttime movements and adverse weather, to prepare their fighters for the challenges of combat.
• Complex Operations: The Taliban have demonstrated their ability to carry out complex operations, such as well-coordinated ambushes and combined arms attacks. They have utilized mortars, explosives, and vehicle-mounted weapons to support their assaults.
• Influencing Local Conflicts: The Taliban have exploited political, ethnic, and family conflicts between local armed groups to their advantage. By positioning themselves as fighters for Islamic convictions and peace, they have gained support and influenced local dynamics.
• Territorial Expansion: The Taliban have focused on expanding their territorial control, particularly in rural areas. They have targeted outposts, district centers, and provincial capitals, often negotiating surrenders or exploiting weaknesses in local governance.
• Propaganda and Intimidation: The Taliban have effectively used propaganda to spread their message and intimidate opponents. They have also employed tactics such as "night letters," where they send threatening messages to local staff of international organizations during the night.
• Adaptation to Battlefield Setbacks: The Taliban have shown a willingness to adapt their tactics in response to battlefield losses. For example, they shifted from conventional infantry assaults to guerrilla warfare and increased their use of asymmetric tactics to reduce casualties.
• Centralized Command: The Taliban have established a more centralized command system, creating provincial military commissions and district military commissioners to plan operations and ensure compliance from field commanders. This has improved their ability to mass forces and coordinate attacks.
• Use of IEDs: The Taliban have extensively utilized Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) to hinder the movement of international and Afghan security forces. They have established Mine Commissions to lead the production and deployment of IEDs, which have caused significant casualties among coalition forces.
• Foreign Support: The Taliban have received significant support from Pakistan, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries. This support includes financial resources, military training, and the provision of weapons and equipment.

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