The Unlikely Conflict: Afghanistan's Phantom Threat To Pakistan

Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long history of strained relations. Since Pakistan's independence in 1947, the two countries have been involved in various territorial disputes, with Afghanistan refusing to recognise the Durand Line as the official border between the two nations. Afghanistan has made irredentist claims to large areas of Pakistani territory, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistani Balochistan, which are home to the Pashtun people. This has resulted in occasional armed skirmishes and firefights between the two nations, with the latest hostilities occurring in March 2024.

The complex relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is further complicated by the involvement of the United States and other external powers. Pakistan has been accused of supporting the Taliban and using militant Islamist groups as strategic assets in the region, while Afghanistan has received support from the US and other countries in its efforts to stabilise the country. The presence of terrorist groups, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, has also contributed to the tense situation along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Despite the ongoing tensions and conflicts, there have been attempts to improve relations and resolve disputes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, the frequent occurrences of violence and the complex dynamics involving multiple stakeholders continue to pose significant challenges to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.

Afghanistan-Pakistan relations

Afghanistan has made irredentist claims to large areas of Pakistani territory, which it considers to be part of the traditional homeland of "Pashtunistan" for the Pashtun people. The Pashtun population is divided by the Durand Line, which has been the site of frequent suicide bombings, airstrikes, and street battles.

Afghanistan has supported secessionist movements within Pakistan, and in 1952, the Afghan government published a tract in which it laid claim to Pashtun territory within Pakistan, as well as the Pakistani province of Balochistan. In 1955, a pro-Pashtunistan group attacked the Pakistani embassy and ambassador's residence in Kabul, tearing down the Pakistani flag.

In 1961, diplomatic relations between the two countries were cut off after Afghanistan supported more armed separatists in Pakistan, leading to skirmishes and the closure of the port of Karachi to Afghan transit trade. In 1973, Afghanistan, with Soviet support, pursued a policy of arming Pashtun separatists within Pakistan.

In recent years, there have been accusations and counter-accusations of support for terrorist groups and warlords, and of terrorist camps being based within each other's territory. Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of sheltering terrorist groups such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, while Afghanistan has blamed Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, for funding warlords and the Taliban.

Despite the strained relationship, the two countries have much in common. Both are member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Economic Cooperation Organization, and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. They also have a shared history, culture, and ethnic groups, including the Pashtuns and the Baloch.

In recent years, there have been efforts to improve relations and cooperate on security and trade. In 2015, the Inter-Services Intelligence and National Directorate of Security of the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to fight terrorism and share intelligence information. In 2010, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed the Afghan-Pak Transit Trade Agreement, which allows Afghan trucks to drive inside Pakistan to the Wagah border with India, and the port cities of Karachi and Gwadar.

The Durand Line

Pakistan, on the other hand, inherited the Durand Line agreement after its independence in 1947 and believes that it should not require an agreement to set the boundary. Pakistan considers the Durand Line to be the western border of Pakistan and an important element of its national security.

The Taliban

In 2021, the Taliban launched a major offensive and regained control of Afghanistan as U.S. and NATO forces withdrew from the country. The Taliban's return to power has been marked by a crackdown on women's rights and a neglect of basic services. The group maintains close ties with al-Qaeda, and there are concerns that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorists.

Pakistan's Good Taliban/Bad Taliban policy

Pakistan's "Good Taliban/Bad Taliban" policy has been in place for decades, and involves supporting the Afghan Taliban while cracking down on the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP). The policy is driven by the Pakistani government's desire for a pliant, Islamist power across its western border in Afghanistan as a counterweight to its eastern neighbour and arch-enemy, India.

The "Good Taliban" in this scenario are a select group of militants whose objectives align with Pakistan's security agenda. Pakistan has long acknowledged its influence over the Afghan Taliban leadership, particularly through its intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). The ISI has provided critical safe haven, sanctuary, advice on military and diplomatic issues, and assistance with fundraising for the Taliban.

However, Pakistan's support for the Taliban is not without risks, as it involves playing a delicate game. The Afghan Taliban's refusal to recognise the Durand Line, which demarcates the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, has been a source of tension. Additionally, the Afghan Taliban has provided assistance to the Pakistani Taliban, which is engaged in an insurgency against the Pakistani state and has been responsible for dozens of terrorist attacks within Pakistan.

The "Bad Taliban", the TTP, has the stated goal of overthrowing the Pakistani state and establishing Sharia law. Pakistan considers the TTP a terrorist threat and has carried out airstrikes and other military operations against them.

Despite the risks and challenges, Pakistan has continued to pursue its "Good Taliban/Bad Taliban" policy, believing that a pliant, Islamist government in Afghanistan led by the Afghan Taliban would serve its geostrategic objectives and counterbalance Indian influence in the region. However, this policy has drawn criticism and concerns, with some arguing that Pakistan is playing with fire and that its strategy could ultimately backfire, leading to increased security risks and instability in the region.

Pakistan's role in the US-Taliban peace deal

In the context of the US-Taliban peace deal, Pakistan's foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, was present at the signing ceremony in Doha, underlining the country's relationship with the Taliban. Pakistan's role was critical in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, and its importance was acknowledged by the US.

However, Pakistan's involvement was not welcomed by all parties in Afghanistan. Many mainstream political leaders and parties in Afghanistan felt that Pakistan's role was forced upon them and that the deal gave too much to the Taliban while taking away the leverage of the Kabul regime. There were concerns that the deal would further isolate the Afghan government and benefit Pakistan's position internationally.

The US-Taliban peace deal included provisions for a reduction in violence, the withdrawal of US and foreign troops from Afghanistan, the start of intra-Afghan negotiations, and guarantees that Afghanistan would not become a safe haven for terrorists. While the deal was a significant step towards ending the 18-year-long war, it faced challenges due to continued Taliban violence and a weak Afghan government.

Pakistan's interests in the peace deal were twofold. Firstly, Pakistan sought to avoid a hasty US withdrawal, which could evoke feelings of abandonment, as had happened after the Soviet-Afghan war. Secondly, Pakistan wanted to prevent an unfriendly government in Kabul, particularly one that was more favourable towards India than Pakistan.

The peace deal was also beneficial for Pakistan in terms of its relationship with the US. Pakistan's link with the Taliban and the Haqqani network improved its standing with the US, and it received economic benefits through the International Monetary Fund and increased military cooperation with the US.

In summary, Pakistan's role in the US-Taliban peace deal was pivotal, and its support for the Taliban was a key factor in bringing them to the negotiating table. However, Pakistan's involvement was contentious among Afghan political leaders, and the deal was seen as advantageous for Pakistan's interests.

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