The Opium Factor: Examining The Complexities Of The Afghan War

Afghanistan is the world's biggest producer of opium, a lucrative drug that is the key ingredient in heroin and other highly addictive narcotics. Opium production in Afghanistan has been steadily rising, and the country's output is now greater than all other opium-producing countries combined. The UK and US have spent billions of dollars trying to stop poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, but production has only increased. The question of whether the international presence in Afghanistan is related to opium is a complex one. While counter-narcotics efforts have been a significant part of the UK's involvement in Afghanistan, the focus has been on breaking the cycle of poverty and instability that drives opium production, rather than directly targeting opium itself. On the other hand, the US has devoted 50% of its efforts in Afghanistan to eradication measures, but these have been largely ineffective and may have contributed to poverty and conflict.

Opium production in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has long had a history of opium poppy cultivation and harvest. As of 2021, Afghanistan's harvest produces more than 90% of illicit heroin globally, and more than 95% of the European supply. More land is used for opium in Afghanistan than for coca cultivation in Latin America. The country has been the world's leading illicit drug producer since 2001.

The dry climate and difficulty of transporting fresh produce make export agriculture hard in Afghanistan. The opium poppy, however, is drought-tolerant, doesn't spoil on long voyages, is easy to transport and store, and sells for a premium. With a farm-gate price of approximately $125 per kilogram for dry opium (2007 prices), an Afghan farmer can make 17 times more profit growing opium poppy ($4,622 per hectare) than by growing wheat ($266 per hectare).

Afghanistan first began producing opium in significant quantities in the mid-1950s, to supply its neighbour Iran after poppy cultivation was banned there. Afghanistan and Pakistan increased production and became major suppliers of opiates to Western Europe and North America in the mid-1970s, when political instability combined with a prolonged drought disrupted supplies from the Golden Triangle.

During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (1979-1989), a number of resistance leaders concentrated on increasing opium production in their regions to finance their operations, regardless of its haram Islamic status. The production was doubled to 575 metric tons between 1982 and 1983. It was alleged by the Soviets that US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) agents were helping smuggle opium out of Afghanistan, either into the West, in order to raise money for the Afghan resistance, or into the Soviet Union, in order to weaken it through drug addiction.

When the Soviet Army was forced to withdraw in 1989, civil war broke out between the Republic of Afghanistan and the Mujahedeen, which continued until the government's collapse in 1992. The fall of the government created a power vacuum, and various Mujahideen factions started fighting against each other for power. With the discontinuation of Western support, they resorted to poppy cultivation to finance their military operations.

During the Taliban rule (1996-2001), Afghanistan saw a bumper opium crop of 4,500 metric tons in 1999. In July 2000, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, collaborating with the UN to eradicate heroin production in Afghanistan, declared that growing poppies was un-Islamic, resulting in one of the world's most successful anti-drug campaigns. The Taliban enforced a ban on poppy farming via threats, forced eradication, and public punishment of transgressors. The result was a 99% reduction in the area of opium poppy farming in Taliban-controlled areas, roughly three-quarters of the world's supply of heroin at the time. The ban was only briefly effective, however, as the Taliban were deposed in 2001.

The opium trade spiked in 2006 after the Taliban lost control of local warlords. Despite having previously banned opium, the Taliban used opium money to fuel their two-decade campaign to retake Afghanistan, with the Taliban earning up to 60% of their annual revenue from the trade. The then Afghan government also outlawed production but, despite help from coalition military forces to clamp down on drug trafficking, the ban did little to stop production.

In 2021, Afghanistan's opium harvest produced more than 90% of illicit heroin globally, and more than 95% of the European supply. In April 2022, the Taliban banned all cultivation of opium poppy under strict new laws. While the 2022 harvest was largely exempted from the decree, the Taliban have strictly enforced the ban this year, aggressively eradicating poppy plantations and leaving farmers with limited economic opportunities.

The ban is not a counter-narcotics victory and will have negative economic and humanitarian consequences, potentially leading to a refugee crisis. The economic shock from the opium ban is enormous: Afghanistan's farm-level rural economy has lost more than $1 billion per year worth of economic activity, including as much as hundreds of millions of dollars that had accrued to poorer wage labourers and sharecroppers.

The big question now is whether or not the poppy ban will be maintained for a second year. Historically, there have been examples of successful opium bans in Afghanistan, both nationally and regionally. But maintaining these bans has invariably proved difficult. It is unclear what the Taliban would have done during the late 2001 planting season, after the 2000 ban weakened them politically in key rural areas and arguably contributed at least in part to their defeat by international forces after 9/11.

The UK's involvement in Afghanistan

Since 2001, the UK has committed significant resources to Afghanistan, with over 100,000 British soldiers deployed and billions of dollars spent on counter-narcotics activities. The UK formed and commanded the first International Stabilisation and Assistance Force (ISAF) in 2001, with Headquarters HQ 3(UK) Division. By April 2002, there were already 1,700 British soldiers on the ground, working alongside other NATO allies. The UK also provided the bulk of a Quick Reaction Force based at Mazar-e-Sharif by March 2004.

In addition to military activities, the UK supported a wide range of projects to improve education, healthcare, economic growth, and local governance in Helmand and across the country. The UK's strategy included clearing towns of insurgents and developing Helmand's economic infrastructure through schools, hospitals, roads, reservoirs, and power generation. Agricultural projects also became a priority to persuade farmers to grow alternatives to opium.

The British war in Afghanistan spanned the tenures of three prime ministers and included eight years of heavy fighting in Helmand. Despite the efforts and sacrifices made, the legacy of the British campaign is hard to determine, and public opinion in the UK turned against the war. In recent years, the focus shifted to training and mentoring the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police to take more responsibility for the security situation. The last UK troops left Afghanistan in 2021, following the Taliban's return to power.

The Taliban's ban on poppy cultivation

On April 3, 2022, the Taliban's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, announced a ban on the cultivation of poppy in Afghanistan. This was not the first time the Taliban had attempted to prohibit poppy cultivation; a previous ban in 2000 was enforced for a brief period from July 2000 to October 2001, before the NATO invasion.

The Taliban's 2022 decree stated:

> "As per the decree of the supreme leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, all Afghans are informed that from now on, cultivation of poppy has been strictly prohibited across the country. If anyone violates the decree, the crop will be destroyed immediately and the violator will be treated according to Sharia law."

The order, announced at a news conference by the Ministry of Interior in Kabul, also banned the production, use, or transportation of other narcotics.

Motives for the Ban

Impact of the Ban

The ban on poppy cultivation has exacerbated Afghanistan's already dire economic situation. Poppy farming is a vital source of income for many Afghan farmers, offering higher returns than legal crops like wheat. A farmer in Helmand province expressed his dilemma, stating, "Other crops are just not profitable." The ban threatens to put hundreds of thousands of Afghan rural households out of business and could lead to armed uprisings against the Taliban regime. Experts warn that without viable alternatives and foreign assistance, the ban will further cripple Afghanistan's economy, which is already suffering from strict international financial sanctions.

Enforcement Challenges

Enforcing the poppy cultivation ban will be challenging for the Taliban. During their 20-year insurgency, the Taliban derived significant funds from taxing farmers in poppy-growing areas under their control. With the ban in place, they lose this source of revenue. Additionally, farmers have invested heavily in their crops and may resist the ban, as they did during the previous prohibition. Author David Mansfield, an expert on Afghanistan's opium trade, predicts that the Taliban will struggle to enforce the ban, especially since farmers have crops that are ready to harvest.

The impact of opium on the Afghan economy

Afghanistan has long been the world's leading producer of illicit opium, which is used to make heroin. Opium has been a lucrative crop for Afghan farmers, who have made more money from it than from other crops such as wheat. In 2021, the total value of Afghanistan's opiates production was $1.8-$2.7 billion, which was up to 14% of the country's GDP.

Opium has been a vital source of income for impoverished Afghan farmers and labourers, who rely on the proceeds from the crop to survive. It has also been a significant source of revenue for the Taliban, who have taken various stances on opium over the years. In 2021, the Taliban banned poppy cultivation, and in 2022, they began a campaign to eradicate it. However, the ban has likely struck a heavy blow to the millions who depend on it for their livelihood, especially amid growing poverty and food shortages in the country.

Opium has had a significant impact on the Afghan economy. On the one hand, it has been a vital source of income for many Afghans, reducing poverty, and driving the rural economy. It has also been a source of employment, with poppy cultivation being a highly labour-intensive activity. On the other hand, opium has contributed to macroeconomic distortions, such as inflation and real estate speculation. It has also been linked to increased substance abuse disorder in the country and has been a source of funding for criminal groups, insurgents, and terrorists.

Overall, opium has had a complex and multifaceted impact on the Afghan economy, with positive and negative effects. While it has provided economic opportunities for many Afghans, it has also contributed to negative consequences such as inflation and substance abuse disorder.

The global demand for opium

Opium is in high demand globally, with an estimated 37 to 78 million opioid users worldwide in 2019, making opioids the second most used illicit drug after cannabis. Opium is a highly profitable crop for farmers, with an Afghan farmer making 17 times more profit growing opium poppy than by growing wheat.

Afghanistan has been the world's leading illicit drug producer since 2001, with around 90% of the world's opium coming from the country. In 2007, 93% of non-pharmaceutical-grade opiates on the world market originated in Afghanistan, and this figure remained high at 84% in 2019. Opium is a lucrative crop for the Taliban, who have taken mixed stances on opium over the years. In 2006, the Taliban lost control of local warlords, and the opium trade spiked. Despite previously banning opium, the Taliban used opium money to fuel their two-decade-long campaign to retake Afghanistan, with the Taliban earning up to 60% of their annual revenue from the trade.

Myanmar is the world's second-largest producer of opium, with poppy cultivation in the heroin-producing 'Golden Triangle' nearly tripling since 2006. Together, Myanmar and Laos produced 762 tons of opium in 2014, most of which was refined into roughly 76 tons of mixed-grade heroin and trafficked into global markets. The increase in opium production in Southeast Asia has been attributed to a regional increase in demand for opium and heroin, triggering a resurgence of production largely by transnational crime networks.

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