The Complex Legacy Of Afghanistan: Navigating A Turbulent Past And An Uncertain Future

The United States ended its 20-year war in Afghanistan on August 31, 2021, with the completion of one of the biggest airlifts in history, evacuating more than 120,000 people to safety.

The war in Afghanistan began in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. The US-led coalition forces invaded Afghanistan and quickly ousted the Taliban regime following its refusal to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.

In February 2020, the US and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The agreement included a pledge from the Taliban to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups.

The Taliban retook control of Afghanistan in August 2021, just weeks before the official US withdrawal deadline. This rapid takeover surprised US officials and allies, and led to a chaotic evacuation of US citizens, embassy personnel, allies, and Afghans who had worked with the US.

The war in Afghanistan resulted in significant casualties and economic costs. Thirteen US service members were killed, and over 20 were wounded during the evacuation efforts. The war also cost the US more than $2 trillion over two decades.

The US-led international coalition's invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The invasion was the opening salvo in the United States' "war on terror", with the stated goal of dismantling al-Qaeda and toppling the Taliban government. The Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban coalition, provided most of the troops on the ground, while the US and other nations gave air and ground support. The Taliban retreated, and by early December, their leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, went into hiding.

The conflict in Afghanistan would span two decades and become the longest war in US history. The US-led coalition forces drove the Taliban from power and built military bases near major cities. However, most al-Qaeda and Taliban members escaped to neighbouring Pakistan or retreated to remote regions.

The invasion was a striking military success, but the failure to capture bin Laden or include the Taliban in the new government set the course for a long war. The Taliban regrouped and launched an insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. The conflict officially ended in 2021 with the Taliban offensive, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate.

The Taliban's resurgence and control of Afghanistan

Resurgence of the Taliban:

• The Taliban regrouped in Pakistan after their initial defeat in 2001, finding sanctuary among sympathetic elements and using the country as a base for their insurgency.
• By 2003, the Taliban had established small mobile training camps along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, drawing recruits from tribal areas. They began launching attacks on Afghan targets and coalition forces.
• In 2004, hidden Taliban leader Mohammed Omar announced an insurgency against US forces and the transitional Afghan government, aiming to "regain the sovereignty" of Afghanistan.
• The Taliban spent several years regrouping and re-escalated their insurgency campaign in 2006, with Afghanistan facing a wave of attacks by improvised explosives and suicide bombers.
• The Taliban's tactics included guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings, and targeted assassinations of government officials. They also established shadow governments and generated revenue through opium production, taxation, and mineral sales.
• The insurgency spread beyond Afghanistan's borders, particularly to Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region.
• The Taliban received support from various regional countries, including Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia, who were accused of funding and backing the insurgent groups.
• The Haqqani Network, Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, and smaller al-Qaeda groups were allied with the Taliban and played a significant role in the insurgency.

US-led Coalition Response:

• The US-led coalition forces, including all members of NATO, fought against the Taliban insurgency, but their efforts were often hampered by a lack of coordination and the challenging terrain.
• There were also allegations of corruption and mismanagement of reconstruction funds, with a 2020 report revealing that nearly a third of the $63 billion in US reconstruction funds were lost to "waste, fraud, and abuse."
• Despite the presence of coalition forces, the Taliban gradually gained control over rural areas and made strategic advances towards cities, eventually capturing Kabul in August 2021.

Impact on Afghanistan:

• The Taliban's resurgence and control of Afghanistan have had significant consequences for the country and its people.
• The freedoms and gains made by Afghans since 2001, particularly in terms of women's rights, education, and political participation, are now in jeopardy under the Taliban's rule.
• The Taliban have imposed their strict interpretation of Islamic law, restricting women's rights, banning girls' education, and cracking down on dissent.
• The country's economy has suffered, with malnutrition and unemployment on the rise. The UN estimates that almost all Afghans are living in poverty, and the country's GDP has been significantly impacted by restrictions on women's employment.
• Security remains a concern, with violence and civilian casualties still prevalent, despite the end of fighting between the Taliban and US-backed forces.

The human and economic costs of the war

The human cost of the war in Afghanistan has been devastating, with the conflict destroying lives, families, and communities. The war has resulted in a massive loss of life, with the Costs of War Project estimating that 243,000 people have died as a direct result of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan since 2001. This figure includes more than 70,000 civilians who have been killed by all sides in the conflict. The true death toll is likely much higher as these figures do not include deaths caused by indirect consequences of the war such as disease, loss of access to food, water, and infrastructure.

The war has also caused immense suffering, with Afghans experiencing poverty, malnutrition, and a lack of access to basic services such as healthcare and education. The conflict has exacerbated existing problems, with nearly every factor associated with premature death—poverty, malnutrition, poor sanitation, lack of access to healthcare, and environmental degradation—being made worse by the war. The war has also taken an invisible toll, with two-thirds of Afghans suffering from mental health problems, according to a 2009 report by the Afghan Ministry of Public Health.

The economic costs of the war have been significant as well. The United States federal government has spent over $2.3 trillion on the war in Afghanistan, with the total cost of the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and elsewhere reaching $8 trillion. This massive spending has increased the US budget deficit and national debt, and it has had other macroeconomic effects such as raising consumer interest rates. The opportunity cost of this spending is also significant, as investing in other areas such as healthcare or education could have produced more jobs and better outcomes for Americans.

The true cost of the war in Afghanistan is incalculable, as it has upended millions of lives and left a legacy of trauma and destruction that will persist for generations.

The role of the US and its allies in the war

The US and its allies invaded Afghanistan in late 2001, partnering with anti-Taliban forces such as the Northern Alliance and Pashtun tribes in the south. They provided arms, equipment, and strategic advice, while US and British warplanes pounded Taliban targets. The Northern Alliance, with US support, quickly overtook towns formerly held by the Taliban, and by December 2001, the largest city in southern Afghanistan, Kandahar, had fallen, marking the end of Taliban power.

The focus then shifted to reconstruction and nation-building efforts. The US and its allies provided humanitarian and reconstruction assistance, helped develop Afghanistan's physical infrastructure, and supported the creation of a powerful central government. However, these efforts were hampered by insufficient funding, waste, and a lack of coordination between civilian and military authorities.

As the war progressed, the Taliban reasserted its presence and adopted new tactics, such as suicide bombings and IEDs, causing heavy casualties. The US and its allies continued their military operations, with the US consistently having the largest foreign force in the country. They also worked to train and equip Afghan security forces, but these efforts were hindered by ethnic differences and inadequate international support.

In 2012, the US and Afghanistan signed a strategic partnership agreement, committing to a long-term relationship and designating Afghanistan as a major non-NATO ally. However, the war dragged on, and in 2018, the US agreed to reduce its troop presence further. The peace agreement between the Taliban and the US, signed in February 2020, paved the way for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces, ending their military involvement in Afghanistan.

The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan

The US-Taliban deal also provided for an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by 1 May 2021, if the Taliban kept its commitments. At the start of the Biden administration, there were 2,500 US soldiers remaining in Afghanistan, and in April 2021, Biden said the US would not begin withdrawing these soldiers before 1 May, but would complete the withdrawal symbolically by 11 September. The Taliban began a final offensive on 1 May and, on 8 July, Biden moved up the completion date to 31 August.

On 12 July 2021, NATO's Resolute Support Mission concluded, and the US intelligence assessment estimated that Kabul would fall within months or weeks following the withdrawal of all American forces from Afghanistan. The security situation deteriorated rapidly, and the Taliban took over Kabul on 15 August 2021. The last US military planes left Kabul airport at 11:59 pm Kabul time on 30 August 2021.

The withdrawal of US troops was completed on the night of 30 August, shortly before the midnight deadline, and America's longest war (whose combat mission had ended nearly seven years earlier) came to a definitive end. The Taliban takeover led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of Afghans and foreign nationals to the international airport in Kabul. With the joint goal of seeing the US withdrawal to its completion, the evacuation included some level of cooperation from the Taliban, which facilitated the movement of evacuees and provided a layer of security en route to the airport facilities.

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