Damon Mcknight
Australia's population has grown from 3.8 million in 1901 to 25.7 million in 2021, with a current density of 3.4 people per square kilometre. This makes Australia the third least densely populated country in the world. Population growth is driven by a high level of immigration, which has been favoured by both major political parties, and the country's fertility rate of 1.49 to 1.7 births per woman. However, some argue that Australia cannot absorb many more people, and that population growth causes or exacerbates economic, environmental, and social problems.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth causes economic, environmental and social problems
Australia's population is small relative to its land mass. This is due to a number of factors, including its geographical location, the aridity of its interior, its distance from other countries, and its history of racist immigration policies.
Population growth causes economic, environmental, and social problems, which are detailed below.
Economic Problems
The relationship between population growth and economic growth is controversial. Low population growth in high-income countries like Australia may create economic problems, while high population growth in low-income countries may slow their development. Population growth affects economic inequality, international migration, and the size of a country's workforce, which in turn affect overall economic growth. As the population grows, so does the demand for food, water, energy, and raw materials. This can lead to overexploited fisheries, overgrazed pastures, and groundwater depletion, and increased waste production, sewage, pollution, and carbon emissions.
Environmental Problems
Population growth stands at the crossroads of some of today's most pressing environmental challenges. As the global population swells, the strain on Earth's finite resources intensifies, exacerbating the vulnerabilities brought about by climate change. Rapid population growth contributes to environmental degradation, air and water pollution, deforestation, and faster depletion of natural habitats, leading to biodiversity loss.
Social Problems
Population growth can also lead to social problems, especially in burgeoning cities where infrastructure development can't keep pace with population growth. This can result in overcrowded transportation systems, inadequate health and education facilities, and strained public services. Dense populations, especially in urban areas, can lead to social unrest, increased crime rates, and challenges in ensuring equitable opportunities for all. Overcrowded areas, especially those without adequate sanitation and with stretched health facilities, become hotspots for the spread of diseases.
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Population density and overcrowding
Australia is the third least densely populated country in the world, with a population density of 3.4/km2 (8.8/sq mi). However, most of its population is concentrated in major cities, with about 73% of people living in capital cities and other urban centres. Only about 1.9% of the population lives in remote and very remote areas.
As the population in cities grows, so does the demand for housing. This often results in the loss of green spaces, which are replaced by apartment buildings and houses. While some cities, like Brisbane, have proposed amendments that require buildings to incorporate green spaces, population density increases can still affect natural landscapes.
High population density can also lead to overcrowding. While Australian cities are not as densely populated as places like Mumbai, they are not immune to overcrowding concerns. This presents a challenge for urban sustainability, which involves more than just implementing eco-friendly regulations.
Population density also impacts the quality of life in an area. As more people move to cities, issues such as loneliness and isolation can arise despite being surrounded by many people. Additionally, resources can become strained, leading to a widening gap between the "haves" and "have-nots".
Australia's population growth is driven primarily by high levels of immigration. Successive federal governments have promoted high population growth, with some advocating for a "big Australia". However, critics argue that this growth exacerbates economic, environmental, and social problems.
To address these challenges, a balanced migration program has been proposed, aiming to stabilise Australia's population until 2050. This would involve an annual immigration level of 50,000 to 80,000 people, roughly equating to the number of emigrants leaving the country each year.
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Immigration and emigration
Australia's population has grown from 3.8 million in 1901 to around 25-26 million in 2021-22. The population is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. The country's population growth is driven by overseas migration, natural increase, and internal migration.
Immigration
Historically, Australia's immigration policies favoured white settlers, with the White Australia policy forbidding the entrance of people of non-European ethnic origins from 1901 until its gradual relaxation after World War II and its abolition in 1973. Since 1945, more than 7 million people have settled in Australia, with the majority of immigrants historically coming from Britain and Ireland, followed by significant numbers from China, Germany, and other European countries. In recent years, Asia has been the largest source of immigrants.
Australia's capital cities, particularly Melbourne and Perth, have experienced the highest population growth rates, attracting overseas migrants due to their urban appeal and opportunities. Net overseas migration increased significantly from 30,042 in 1992-93 to 536,000 in 2022-23, with skilled migration and family reunion programs as the largest components.
Emigration
Australia experienced a shrinkage of its population during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in 2019-20, due to border restrictions and lockdowns, resulting in a net outflow of people for the first time since World War II. During this period, migrant departures increased by 8%, contributing to the population decline.
Despite the overall population growth, some regions of Australia, such as Tasmania, have experienced low population growth or outflows due to their low share of net overseas migration and the migration of people to other states. Additionally, the interior regions of Australia, including the semi-arid and desert areas, are less populated due to geographical challenges and the historical concentration of populations in coastal cities.
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Fertility rates and life expectancy
Australia's fertility rate has been declining since the 1960s. In 1800, Australian women would have had approximately 6.5 children on average over their lifetime. This number decreased to just under five in the early 1850s, then increased to 5.7 children per woman in the 1860s due to an influx of migrants during the Australian gold rushes. The fertility rate dropped again until 1935, when it was 2.2 children per woman. There was a small baby boom after the First World War, and the rate rose to 3.4 in the 1960s. However, it then dropped to two children per woman in 1980 and has remained just under this number since. In 2021, the fertility rate was 1.7 births per woman, and in 2023, there were 286,998 registered births, a decrease of 4.6% from 2022. The total fertility rate for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women was 2.17 births per woman.
The declining fertility rate is reflected in the ageing of the Australian population. The median age in Australia has increased from 33.4 years in 1994 to 38.3 years in 2024. The percentage of the population aged 65 and over has increased from 12% to 17% over the same period. The number of deaths has grown faster than births in recent years, with 183,000 deaths in 2023-24 compared to 289,000 births.
Life expectancy in Australia is among the highest in the world and has been increasing. In 2021-2023, life expectancy at birth was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females, an increase from 75.0 years for males and 80.9 years for females in 1993. Life expectancy varies across the country, with the Australian Capital Territory having the highest life expectancy for males (81.7 years) and the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia having the highest for females (85.7 years). The Northern Territory had the lowest life expectancy for both males (76.4 years) and females (80.4 years).
Population growth in Australia has been driven by net overseas migration, particularly to capital cities and major cities. In 2023-24, the share of the population living in the eight capital cities increased to 68%, up from 55% thirty years ago. Net overseas migration is expected to drive population growth in Western Australia and Victoria in the coming years.
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Population distribution and urbanisation
Australia's population density is 3.4/km2 (8.8/sq mi), making it the third least densely populated country globally, after Namibia and Mongolia. However, population distribution is uneven, with most people living in coastal cities. In 2023-24, 68% of Australians lived in the eight capital cities, while 25% lived in inner or outer regional areas, and the remaining 1.9% in remote locations. This urban concentration has increased over time, with the urban population rising from 58% in 1911 to 90% in 2021.
Several factors contribute to this urbanisation. Firstly, Australia's geography makes much of the inland area semi-arid or desert-like, challenging to inhabit. Secondly, capital cities attract overseas migrants, who tend to settle in urban areas, and these cities have a younger demographic, resulting in a greater natural increase. Net overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth before the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the younger population in cities is due to internal migration, as people aged 25 to 34 were the least likely to have lived at the same address five years ago.
The trend towards urbanisation has implications for sustainability and quality of life. As cities become denser, green spaces are replaced by dwellings, impacting natural landscapes. This results in challenges such as overcrowding, and ensuring sustainability and quality of life in these areas becomes more complex.
However, urbanisation also offers benefits. Higher population density provides improved access to community, career opportunities, and lifestyle perks such as cultural events and amenities. It is a trade-off between these advantages and the potential drawbacks of overcrowding and reduced green spaces.
To address these challenges, some cities, like Brisbane, have proposed amendments requiring apartment buildings to include green spaces. Additionally, a balanced migration program could stabilise the population, with immigration levels matching those who emigrate permanently.
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Frequently asked questions
No, Australia is the third least densely populated country in the world, with a population density of 3.4/km2 (8.8/sq mi) as of June 2022.
Australia's population was 25.7 million in 2021 and 26 million in 2022. It is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071.
Population growth in Australia is driven by high levels of immigration and a high level of natural increase, which is the difference between births and deaths. In recent years, the number of births has decreased, but the number of deaths has increased, reflecting an ageing population.
Population growth in Australia has caused or exacerbated economic, environmental, and social problems. It has led to overcrowding in cities, straining resources, and creating a divide between the "haves" and "have-nots".
The Australian government has pursued a policy of multiculturalism since the end of the White Australia policy in 1973, and there has been a large wave of immigration from Asia in the 21st century. The government has also implemented policies to stabilize population growth, such as a balanced migration program, but there is criticism that they are not doing enough to address the negative impacts of population growth.
