The Russian Bear's Paw Prints In Afghanistan: A Historical Overview

Russia has not had troops in Afghanistan since the Soviet Union's invasion of the country in 1979. The war lasted ten years and was a costly conflict for the Soviets, resulting in the deaths of 15,000 soldiers. The mujahideen, who drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan in 1988, would later become the Taliban, the hardline Islamist group that seized power in 2021. While Russia does not currently have troops in Afghanistan, it has been engaging with the Taliban and conducting military drills with neighbouring countries like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Russia's previous invasion of Afghanistan in 1979

On Christmas Eve 1979, the Soviet Union began an invasion of Afghanistan, its Central Asian neighbour to the south. The invasion was the culmination of growing Soviet domination going back to 1973. The Soviets air-dropped elite troops into principal Afghan cities and deployed motorized divisions across the border. Within days, the KGB, which had infiltrated the Afghan presidential palace, poisoned the president and his ministers, installing a new puppet leader, Babrak Karmal.

The invasion triggered a brutal, nine-year civil war and contributed significantly to the USSR's later collapse. The Soviets dealt harshly with the Mujahideen rebels and those who supported them, levelling entire villages to deny safe havens to their enemy. The Mujahideen employed guerrilla tactics, attacking or raiding quickly and then disappearing into the mountains.

The Soviets had initially planned to swiftly secure Afghanistan's towns and road networks, stabilize the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) government, and withdraw all of their military forces within six months to a year. However, they were met with fierce resistance from Afghan guerrillas and experienced great operational difficulties in the rugged mountainous terrain. By the mid-1980s, the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan had increased to approximately 1115,000 troops, and fighting across the country intensified.

The war resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000,000 Afghans, while millions more fled the country as refugees. The Soviet-Afghan War caused grave destruction throughout Afghanistan and has also been cited by scholars as a significant factor that contributed to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, formally ending the Cold War.

Russia's current involvement in Afghanistan

Russia currently has no military presence in Afghanistan. However, it has been reported that Russia has been cultivating relationships with the Taliban since around 2015, and has been providing the Taliban with financial support and arms.

In 2021, when the U.S. and NATO withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, Russia was quick to cheer the move, presenting it as a strategic setback for Washington. However, Russia also fears Afghanistan falling into civil war, which could allow the country to become a sanctuary for jihadists.

In the past, Russia has also been accused of offering bounties to Taliban-linked militants for killing U.S. and other allied service members during the war in Afghanistan. While the U.S. intelligence community has assessed that there is only a "low to moderate confidence" in the bounty program allegations, the existence of such a program would mark an escalation of the ongoing Second Cold War.

Russia's relationship with the Taliban

During the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the group recognised the independence of Russia's North Caucasus republic of Chechnya, and Moscow was focused on building good relations with the West. However, as Russia's relationship with the West deteriorated, particularly following the Ukraine conflict, the Kremlin's view of the Taliban changed.

In August 2021, as the Taliban took control of Kabul, the Russian embassy remained open, and Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov became the first foreign diplomat to meet with Taliban representatives, even proclaiming the fighters "reasonable guys". The Taliban also began providing security for the Russian embassy. This marked a shift in Russia's stance, as the country had previously provided military assistance to the Afghan Northern Alliance, which played a significant role in overthrowing the Taliban regime in 2001 with US support.

Russia has been consistently sympathetic to the Taliban's anti-Western rhetoric, and the country's foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, celebrated the failure of the NATO coalition in Afghanistan. The Taliban's ideology of opposition to Western values aligns with Russia's anti-Western narratives. Additionally, cooperation with the Taliban provides Russia with access to new trade routes and enhances its reputation as an ally of the Global South.

Russia has also been developing its relations with the Taliban to counter the influence of the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP), a terrorist group based in Afghanistan that has targeted Russia and poses a significant threat. The Taliban has been fighting ISKP consistently and has eliminated several of its commanders. Russia has provided the Taliban with weapons and intelligence to combat this shared threat, as well as the United States.

In September 2022, Russia and the Taliban signed a provisional deal for Russia to supply gas, oil, and wheat to Afghanistan. This marked the Taliban's first major international economic deal. However, it does not appear that the Kremlin will officially recognise the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, and they have excluded the group from international forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's summit.

Despite Russia's classification of the Taliban as a terrorist organisation and their differing ideologies, both sides continue to engage and find common ground in their opposition to Western influence and shared threats.

Russia's reaction to the US-led NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan

Russia's response to the US-led NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan has been varied, with some sources claiming that Moscow's reaction has been dominated by "schadenfreude and strategic anti-U.S. messaging", while others suggest that the country has more material concerns such as regional instability, narcotics trafficking, and the spread of radical Islamic terrorism.

Schadenfreude and Anti-U.S. Rhetoric

One of the most visible aspects of Russia's immediate response to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has been the glee with which Russian officials have critiqued the move. This has included explicit statements from President Vladimir Putin, who commented that:

> "It is necessary to stop the irresponsible policy of imposing other people's values from outside, the desire to build democracy in other countries, not taking into account either historical, national or religious characteristics, and completely ignoring the traditions by which people live...Any such socio-political experiments have never been crowned with success and only lead to the destruction of states, and the degradation of their political and social systems."

Other Russian politicians have joined in, with the Speaker of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, stating that:

> " [if] we analyze the factual information related to the U.S.' international expansion, when they invaded other countries and, under various pretexts, imposed their own standards, it would be difficult to name a country that would benefit from that. Today, we are witnessing the collapse of America's foreign policy."

This sort of gloating has been common in Russian political reporting and serves as a reminder to both domestic and international audiences of Russia's position on global order, state sovereignty, and interventionism.

Material Concerns

However, beyond the anti-U.S. rhetoric, Russia has several more practical concerns arising from the withdrawal. These include:

• Regional instability: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has raised concerns about the potential for instability to spill over into neighbouring states, while Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has warned of the burgeoning narcotics trade, arguing that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan has enabled the drug trade to flourish.
• Refugee crisis: Putin has stated that he does not support the idea of temporarily evacuating Afghans to Central Asian countries bordering Russia, citing concerns about the potential for militants to enter Russia under the guise of refugees.
• Security threats: There are fears that the withdrawal could lead to a resurgence of international jihadist terrorism, with jihadists everywhere celebrating the Taliban's return to power as a victory over the U.S. and the West.
• Geopolitical implications: Russia is also concerned about the perception that it has been left out of the loop regarding the withdrawal, with Moscow preferring the situation to evolve into primarily an intra-Eurasian matter.

A "Wait and See" Approach

Overall, while Russia's initial response to the U.S.-led NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan has included a significant amount of schadenfreude and anti-U.S. rhetoric, the country also has several practical concerns about the potential fallout, particularly regarding regional stability, narcotics trafficking, and the spread of terrorism. As such, Moscow's approach going forward is likely to be one of cautious optimism combined with a more measured "wait and see" strategy.

The Soviet-Afghan War's influence on Russia's war in Ukraine

The Soviet-Afghan War was a protracted armed conflict fought in the Soviet-controlled Democratic Republic of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. The war was a major conflict of the Cold War, resulting in the deaths of approximately 3,000,000 Afghans, while millions more fled the country as refugees. The Soviet-Afghan War has been cited as a significant factor contributing to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, formally ending the Cold War.

The Soviet-Afghan War has influenced the war in Ukraine in several ways. Firstly, the Soviet-Afghan War was a counterinsurgency (CI) effort that depended on key success factors that were not in place. Similarly, the war in Ukraine is a defensive conventional and hybrid war that requires certain prerequisites for victory.

Secondly, the Soviet-Afghan War revealed the challenges of counterinsurgency operations, which are often protracted and require a long time horizon for success. This contrasts with the war in Ukraine, which is a more conventional conflict with clear front lines and defined objectives.

Thirdly, the Soviet-Afghan War highlighted the importance of unity and coordination among insurgent groups. The mujahideen in Afghanistan were fragmented politically and militarily, which hindered their effectiveness. In Ukraine, the political groupings and leaders have coalesced against the Russian threat, presenting a united front.

Fourthly, the Soviet-Afghan War demonstrated the critical role of external support in insurgent conflicts. The mujahideen received significant support from the United States, Pakistan, and other countries, which contributed to their eventual victory. In the case of Ukraine, external support from the United States, NATO, and other allies has been crucial in their defence against Russia.

Finally, the Soviet-Afghan War showed the importance of realistic assessments and contingency planning. The United States and its allies failed to adequately plan for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, which contributed to the rapid collapse of the Afghan government and security forces. In contrast, the United States and NATO had serious contingency plans and preparations in place for Ukraine, including military aid and economic sanctions against Russia.

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