The Final Withdrawal: Examining The Exit Of Military Forces From Afghanistan

The US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ended America's longest war, was completed on August 30, 2021. The last US military planes left Kabul airport, leaving the country under Taliban rule. The exit followed a two-week chaotic withdrawal process during which more than 120,000 people were evacuated. The decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan was made in February 2020 when the Trump administration and the Taliban signed the United States-Taliban deal in Doha, Qatar. The deal stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban and provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The US-led mission in Afghanistan began in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States.

The Taliban's victory in the War in Afghanistan

The international intervention in Afghanistan, led by the United States, failed to establish a legitimate authority in the country. Competing agendas and a focus on the "War on Terror" undermined human rights and state-building efforts. Additionally, the gap between the Afghan government and its citizens grew over time, as risk mitigation measures were implemented. The day-to-day interactions between ordinary Afghans and the state were often perceived as corrupt and extractive, making it difficult for the state to convey its interests in the citizens.

The Taliban, on the other hand, demonstrated their ability to adapt and integrate military and non-military instruments of power. They evolved from a shadowy insurgent network to a complex organization managing up to 80,000 fighters. They effectively utilized social media and decentralized orders, allowing local commanders to make tactical decisions based on their knowledge of the terrain and local politics. The Taliban also employed sophisticated psychological warfare and targeted assassinations to undermine the morale and cohesion of the Afghan security forces.

The isolation of the Afghan military was a critical factor in the Taliban's victory. The Afghan government's focus on holding terrain through scattered checkpoints and outposts rendered their units unable to mutually reinforce each other. The Taliban exploited this vulnerability by disrupting ground lines of communication and targeting cohesion through threats and text messages. As a result, Afghan forces often found themselves without food, water, or ammunition, leading to discontent and disillusionment.

The evacuation of Kabul

The evacuation was prompted by the Taliban's rapid advance across Afghanistan, which culminated in the fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021. The Taliban's offensive began in May 2021, and by mid-August, the Afghan National Army had only two operational units remaining, both based in Kabul. On 13 August, the Taliban encircled Kabul, and on 15 August, they entered the city and declared victory.

As the Taliban seized control of Kabul, the urgency to evacuate populations vulnerable to the Taliban increased. This included interpreters and assistants who had worked with coalition forces, Hazara people, and vulnerable women and minorities, given the Taliban's historical treatment of women.

With the Taliban controlling all border crossings, Kabul Airport remained the only secure route out of Afghanistan. The US deployed an additional 3,000 troops, and the UK deployed 600 troops to Kabul Airport to secure the airlift of their nationals, embassy staff, and Afghan citizens who had worked with coalition forces.

The evacuation was chaotic, with thousands of fleeing Afghan civilians rushing to the airport. US soldiers used helicopters for crowd control, deployed smoke grenades, and fired warning shots to disperse people attempting to forcefully board aircraft. Video footage showed hundreds of people running alongside a moving US Air Force plane, with some clinging onto the aircraft. At least two people fell from the plane immediately after takeoff and were killed.

On 26 August, a suicide bombing at the airport killed 13 US military personnel and over 170 Afghan civilians. The Islamic State's Afghanistan affiliate claimed responsibility for the attack.

The evacuation ended on 30 August, with the departure of the final US military flight from Kabul Airport. In total, over 120,000 people were evacuated during the operation.

The collapse of the Afghan government

The Doha agreement between the US and the Taliban, finalized in February 2020, was a significant factor in the collapse. The agreement, which called for a complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces, demoralized the Afghan military and government officials, who saw it as a sign of their inevitable defeat. This was exacerbated by corruption and incompetence within the Afghan government, with many security forces going months without pay. The Taliban capitalized on this uncertainty, negotiating deals with local leaders and offering bribes or amnesty to government forces to lay down their arms.

The US withdrawal, which began in May 2021, further emboldened the Taliban, who intensified their offensive and made significant gains in rural areas. They consolidated control of major highways, levied taxes, and seized border crossings. By August, they had begun targeting urban areas, capturing provincial capitals with little to no resistance.

The Afghan military, despite billions of dollars in American aid and two decades of training, was unable to mount an effective defense. The military was over-reliant on US support and lacked the institutional backbone to function independently. Poor military planning and leadership further contributed to the collapse, with commanders ordering surrenders instead of fighting.

As the Taliban advanced, Afghan security forces abandoned their posts and, in some cases, switched sides or fled the country. The rapid fall of major cities and the capital, Kabul, led to the dissolution of the Afghan government and the flight of President Ashraf Ghani, marking the end of a two-decade-long US intervention in Afghanistan.

The US's longest war

The war in Afghanistan was the longest war in US history, lasting nearly two decades and spanning four presidencies. The war began in 2001 when President George W. Bush authorized the invasion of Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks. The Taliban-ruled Afghanistan had been providing refuge for al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks.

The initial goal of the war was to defeat al-Qaeda and overthrow the Taliban regime, which was quickly accomplished. However, US and allied forces remained in Afghanistan to support a new government in Kabul and prevent the resurgence of the Taliban. Over the next two decades, the conflict ebbed and flowed as Washington debated whether to commit more resources to the war effort or negotiate a withdrawal.

During this time, the US and its partners helped improve the lives of Afghans, advancing the rights of women and girls, supporting independent media, and building schools, hospitals, and roads. However, the war also had a devastating impact, resulting in the deaths of more than 2,000 American soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Afghans. It also cost the US close to $1 trillion, with some estimates putting the figure at over $2 trillion.

In 2020, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban for a complete withdrawal of US troops if certain conditions were met. This deal was criticized by some who believed it legitimized the Taliban and cut out the Afghan government. Despite this, President Biden decided to proceed with the withdrawal, and the last US troops left Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, ending America's longest war.

The withdrawal was marked by chaos and a rush to evacuate American citizens and vulnerable Afghans. The Taliban quickly regained control of the country, and fears grew that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorists. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with women and girls' rights already being restricted and the economy in decline.

Despite the massive investment of blood and treasure, the US ultimately failed to create a stable, self-sufficient Afghan state. The war exposed the limitations of US military power and the challenges of nation-building in a country with a history of repelling foreign invaders. It also highlighted the need for a clear and achievable strategy, as well as coordination with allies, to avoid a similar outcome in future conflicts.

The US-Taliban deal

The agreement laid out a timeline for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for counter-terrorism commitments from the Taliban. The deal included a reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by May 1, 2021, if the Taliban upheld its commitments. The deal also addressed a temporary reduction in violence, the start of intra-Afghan negotiations, and guarantees that Afghanistan would not become a safe haven for terrorists.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were to begin in March 2020 and include discussions on a permanent ceasefire, power-sharing, disarming and reintegrating Taliban fighters, and determining the future of the country's democratic institutions and constitution. However, the intra-Afghan talks faced challenges due to the weak central government, ethnic and sectarian differences, and the Taliban's increasing strength and control over many districts in the country.

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