The Complex Dynamic: Afghanistan-Iran Relations

Afghanistan and Iran are not currently at war, but their relationship is strained due to border clashes and disputes over water resources. The two countries have a long history of complex relations, with cultural ties extending back millennia. In recent years, however, tensions have escalated due to conflicting interests and ideological differences. Afghanistan's Taliban rulers have been accused of violating a 1973 water treaty by restricting the flow of the Helmand River to Iran, leading to deadly clashes along their shared border. While both countries have expressed a preference for dialogue and negotiation, the situation remains volatile, and the prospect of resolving the water dispute through diplomacy appears challenging.

Border clashes

Afghanistan and Iran have historically had a tumultuous relationship, with border clashes occurring as recently as May 2023. The two countries share a 580-mile border and have had disputes over the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan into Iran, as far back as the 1870s. The dispute intensified in the 1950s when Afghanistan built two dams on the river, and again in 1978 when Afghanistan became Communist and announced it was no longer bound by old treaties regarding water distribution.

In May 2023, armed conflict broke out between the two countries, resulting in multiple casualties on both sides. The situation was de-escalated, but not before Iranian authorities closed the Milak-Zaranj border post, a major commercial crossing.

The dispute is not only about water rights but also about each country's governance and relations with the other. Iran has accused the Taliban of violating a 1973 treaty by restricting water flow from the Helmand River, which the Taliban denies. Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi has warned the Taliban about disregarding its water rights, while the Taliban has called for the issue to be resolved through diplomatic channels.

The Taliban has stated that it does not want to fight with its neighbours, but relations between the two countries remain strained. The Taliban has also been accused of executing Iranian diplomats in the past, and Iran has been accused of supplying weapons to the Taliban.

The border clashes have prompted talks between the two countries to ease tensions, but the occasional clash is expected to continue.

Water disputes

Afghanistan and Iran are not at war, but there have been recent border clashes and tensions over shared water resources, which represent a serious escalation of hostilities. The dispute centres on transboundary waters, with almost 90% of the critical Helmand River passing through Afghanistan before flowing into Iran.

Iran accuses the Taliban rulers of violating a 1973 treaty by restricting the flow of water from the Helmand River to its eastern regions. The Taliban denies the accusation, stating that there is insufficient water due to drought.

The dispute intensified in the 1950s when Afghanistan built two dams on the Helmand River—the Kajaki and the Grishk—which curtailed the water flow into Iran. In 1973, the two countries signed a treaty on sharing water resources, but it was neither ratified nor implemented.

In recent decades, the issue has become more dramatic due to war, displacement of populations, lucrative dam buildings, disastrous water management, and the impact of climate change. Iran has been particularly impacted by the drying up of the Hamoun wetland, which is fed by the Helmand River and used to be the third-largest lake in the country, playing a vital role in the lives of people in the southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province.

Both countries have faced periodic droughts, and water is a precious commodity in both. In addition to agriculture, water from the Helmand River is critical for fishing and human consumption for millions of people on both sides of the border.

While there have been calls for a diplomatic solution to the dispute, with the Taliban stating that "dialogue and negotiation" are the reasonable way to resolve the issue, tensions remain high. The Taliban's control of upriver water sources gives them a rare tool for leverage in their relationship with Tehran, and both sides appear to be digging in on their positions.

Refugee status

Afghanistan and Iran are not at war, but there are occasional clashes between the two countries. In May 2023, two Iranian border guards and one Taliban fighter were killed in a shooting near a border post. This incident occurred amid rising tensions over water rights, with Iran accusing Afghanistan of violating a 1973 treaty by restricting the flow of water from the Helmand River.

Iran hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world, with millions of refugees from Afghanistan. The exact number of Afghan refugees in Iran is unclear, with estimates ranging from one to four million. The majority of Afghan refugees in Iran are undocumented and face numerous challenges, including a lack of access to medical services, education, and livelihood opportunities. They are also at risk of arbitrary arrest, involuntary return, and movement restrictions.

In recent years, the Iranian government has slowly introduced policies to increase the provision and renewal of Amayesh cards, which grant registered refugees conditional freedom of movement, temporary work permits, and access to the national education and healthcare systems. However, the card renewal process has been difficult due to the large number of Afghans arriving in the country following the Taliban takeover in 2021.

The situation for Afghan refugees in Iran has become increasingly difficult due to the country's economic woes and social unrest. There have been reports of Afghan refugees being mistreated and beaten by Iranian border guards, which has triggered protests in Afghanistan. Despite these challenges, Iran has a history of being inclusive towards refugees, and the UNHCR has praised the country for its inclusive refugee policy.

Drug trafficking

Afghanistan and Iran are not at war, but they do have a complicated relationship and a history of border clashes. One of the key issues in their relationship is drug trafficking.

Afghanistan is a major opium producer, accounting for 90% of the world's heroin. It also produces cheap methamphetamine using a local plant called ephedra. Much of these drugs are smuggled into Iran and then on to other countries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and beyond. Iran is a major destination for drugs, as well as a transit route.

Iran has spent millions of dollars annually on border control and has built concrete barriers and ditches along its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite these efforts, Iran has not been able to curb the flow of drugs into the country. Drug traffickers use catapults to toss packages of drugs into Iranian territory, and they take advantage of storms to evade surveillance systems.

Iranian authorities seize about 30% of the heroin and opium believed to enter Iran each year. However, the abundance of drugs has contributed to a severe addiction problem in the country, with officials estimating over 1.3 million drug addicts. Iran has been criticized for using the death penalty to try to stop drug trafficking, with an estimated 65% of the 1,000 people executed last year convicted of drug-related offenses.

Iran has also been accused of playing a "double game" when it comes to drug trafficking. While the country is a major player in the fight against drug trafficking, there have been reports of Iranian-made weapons being found in the hands of Afghan Taliban fighters. There are conflicting messages about the nature of Iran's relationship with the Taliban, and it is unclear whether the Iranian government is providing support to the Taliban or if certain elements within the security forces are acting independently.

Proxy interference

Iran's primary proxy force is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has an estimated 125,000 forces. Within the IRGC, the Quds Force is responsible for foreign operations and has been instrumental in expanding Iran's influence in the region. The Quds Force has recruited, trained, and provided military support to proxy forces, including in Afghanistan.

Iran's proxies in Afghanistan include Shiite fighters, such as the Hazara community, and Sunni extremist groups, such as the Taliban. Iran has historically viewed Afghanistan as a haven for Sunni extremists and has sought to counter their influence.

Iran's relationship with the Taliban has been complex and marked by periods of cooperation and conflict. Iran supported anti-Taliban forces in the 1990s but shifted its stance after the U.S. and NATO intervention in 2001. Iran provided limited support to the Taliban as a means to pressure the U.S. while also working with the U.S. to establish a new Afghan government.

Iran's interests in Afghanistan include countering the influence of the U.S. and other regional powers, such as Pakistan, and ensuring stability on its eastern border. Iran has used a combination of financial support, military aid, and soft power initiatives, such as building schools and media outlets, to exert influence in Afghanistan.

Iran's proxy activities in Afghanistan have raised concerns among the U.S. and its allies, who view them as a threat to regional stability. The U.S. has accused Iran of playing a "`double game` in Afghanistan and providing support to militant groups, including the Taliban.

The presence of Iranian proxies in Afghanistan poses a challenge to U.S. efforts to stabilize the country and counter extremist groups. Iran's support for the Taliban and other militant groups has contributed to the ongoing conflict and instability in Afghanistan.

Overall, Iran's proxy interference in Afghanistan is part of a broader strategy to expand its influence and pursue its interests in the region. Iran's proxies serve as a tool to exert pressure, deter rivals, and advance Iran's strategic objectives.

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