The Complex Dynamic: Afghanistan-Iran Relations

Afghanistan and Iran have a long history of cultural and historical relations, sharing a border of about 580 miles. However, their political relationship has been strained over the years, with issues such as access to water from Afghan rivers, the large number of Afghan refugees in Iran, the flow of illicit drugs into Iran, and the Taliban's attack on Shia Muslims causing tensions. While the countries are not allies, they have found themselves strategically aligned on key issues, such as containing the IS-K threat.

Border clashes and disputes over transboundary waters

Afghanistan and Iran's border disputes and clashes have been influenced by their disagreement over transboundary waters. The two countries share a border of about 580 miles and have historically been in conflict over the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan into Iran.

The dispute over the Helmand River dates back to the 1870s, when a British officer drew the Iran-Afghan border along the river's main branch. In 1939, the Iranian government of Reza Shah Pahlavi and the Afghan government of Mohammad Zahir Shah engaged in discussions about a treaty regarding water allocation, which the Afghans never ratified. The dispute intensified in the 1950s when Afghanistan built two dams on the river.

In 1973, the prime ministers of both nations signed a water-sharing treaty, which granted Iran the right to 22 cubic meters of water per second, with the option of an additional four cubic meters. However, this treaty has been a source of contention in recent years, with Iran accusing Afghanistan of obstructing the river's water flow through the construction of dams.

In May 2023, tensions escalated when Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi accused the Taliban government of restricting access to water from the Helmand River, warning that Iran would defend its water rights. This was followed by a clash between border guards on both sides, resulting in the death of one Taliban soldier and two Iranian guards.

While the Taliban denied the accusation and called for a diplomatic resolution, the dispute over transboundary waters remains unresolved, with Iran demanding access to its rightful share of the Helmand River.

The Taliban's treatment of Shia Muslims

During the Taliban's first rule from 1996 to 2001, the group committed several massacres against the Hazaras and wrested control of Hazara regions through a campaign of targeted killings. This historical persecution, along with the Taliban's extreme interpretation of Sunni Islam, has led to fears of continued discrimination and violence against the Shia community.

Since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, there have been reports of forced evictions of Hazara families from various provinces, with their land being redistributed to Taliban supporters. The Taliban has also been accused of cutting down flags and banners associated with Shia religious ceremonies and attacking community gathering places.

The Shia community has further faced restrictions on their religious practices. The Taliban has prevented Shia Muslims from celebrating important religious festivals and banned the teaching of Shia jurisprudence in universities. Marriages between Shia and Sunni Muslims have also been prohibited in certain regions.

In addition to these restrictions, the Shia community, particularly the Hazaras, has been the target of deadly attacks. There have been reports of attacks on Shia mosques, hospitals, and schools in Hazara-dominated areas. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that hundreds of minorities were killed in attacks attributed to the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), a local branch of the Islamic State group. The Taliban has been accused of failing to provide security and protect Shia Muslims from these attacks.

The status of Afghan refugees in Iran

Iran is host to one of the largest refugee populations in the world, with the majority of refugees coming from Afghanistan. According to the latest figures from the Iranian government, 762,000 refugees live in Iran, of which 750,000 are Afghans. However, this number is likely an underestimate as it does not include undocumented refugees. It is estimated that there are an additional 586,000 Afghan passport holders with Iranian visas, as well as 2.6 million undocumented Afghans living in Iran. This means that the total number of Afghan refugees in Iran could be as high as 3.9 million.

The situation for Afghan refugees in Iran is difficult and has been deteriorating in recent years. Afghan refugees face challenges in accessing medical services, education, and livelihood opportunities due to a lack of documentation. This also exposes them to the risk of arbitrary arrest, involuntary return, and movement restrictions. In 2023, the Iranian authorities pledged to deport Afghan migrants without proper documentation, and it is estimated that around 600,000 Afghans returned to Afghanistan from Iran that year.

Afghan refugees in Iran also face discrimination and growing resentment from Iranian society due to economic pressure and competition for jobs. There have been reports of mistreatment of Afghan refugees by both government officials and civilians, including physical abuse and wrongful detention.

Despite these challenges, the Iranian government has implemented some progressive and inclusive policies to support refugees. Refugees in Iran have been given access to education, health, and livelihood opportunities. In recent years, the government has also slowly introduced policies to increase the provision and renewal of Amayesh cards, which grant registered refugees conditional freedom of movement, temporary work permits, and access to the national education and healthcare systems. However, the card renewal process has been difficult due to the large number of Afghans arriving in the country.

Narcotics trafficking

Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of illicit opium, and Iran is a major destination and transit route for these drugs. Narcotics trafficking is a significant problem on the border between the two countries.

Afghanistan produces about 90% of the world's illicit opium, and much of it is trafficked through Iran to the wider world. Tehran blames Kabul for failing to curb opium production and prevent cross-border drug smuggling. Iran has spent millions of dollars annually on border control, including the construction of barriers along its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In addition to opium and heroin trafficking, Iran also faces the challenge of illicit production and trafficking of amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS). There has been a sudden increase in the reported seizures of high-purity crystalline methamphetamine ("shisheh"). National authorities have also detected greater reliance on in-country production of ATS, mostly methamphetamine.

Traffickers have found novel ways of smuggling drugs into Iran from Afghanistan. For example, they use catapults made of special metal fixtures and tire tubes that can toss 10-kilogram packages up to 2 kilometres into Iranian territory. They also take advantage of the "wind of 120 days" – a period of intense storms in the last month of spring and throughout the summer – to evade surveillance systems and cross the border.

The abundance of drugs has contributed to a severe addiction problem in Iran, with officials estimating over 1.3 million addicts, although unofficial figures are much higher. According to Iran's Interior Minister, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, no country in the world is as vulnerable to drugs as Iran due to its proximity to Afghanistan.

Iran has taken aggressive action to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the country. According to the UNODC World Drug Report 2014, Iran accounted for 74% of global opium seizures and 25% of global heroin and morphine seizures in 2012. Iranian authorities seize about 30% of the 155 tons of heroin and opium believed to enter the country each year. Iran's counter-narcotics operations have come at a high cost, with more than 3,700 national law enforcement officials killed and over 12,000 injured over the last three decades.

Iran's efforts to curb drug trafficking have not been entirely successful. Despite a multi-million-dollar project to build a concrete barrier and deep ditches along its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan, the flow of drugs into Iran continues. In addition, the death penalty for traffickers has not reduced the number of traffickers, and the border wall has proven ineffective in stopping drug trafficking.

Iran has called for more regional and international cooperation to address the drug trafficking problem, as it is not just a fight for Iran and Afghanistan but a global issue.

The Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K)

IS-K was founded by disgruntled members of various militant groups, including the Afghan Taliban, the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda, who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Its early membership included Pakistani militants who had fled to Afghanistan to escape pressure from security forces. Over the years, IS-K's ranks have been boosted by local recruits and foreign fighters, particularly from former Soviet republics in Central Asia. The UN Security Council estimates that the group has between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters, including family members, although some experts believe this number is much lower.

IS-K's activities include attacks against Afghan and international forces, the Taliban, and Afghanistan's religious minorities. In August 2021, as U.S. troops were evacuating Kabul airport, IS-K carried out an attack that killed about 170 Afghans and 13 Americans. The group has also targeted Shi'a Muslims, including Afghanistan's Shi'a Hazara community. In January 2024, IS-K attacked crowds near the tomb of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in the city of Kerman, killing more than 90 people.

IS-K seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in South and Central Asia, governed by Sharia law. It seeks to expand its territory beyond nation-states like Afghanistan and Pakistan and does not recognize international borders. The group's ideology includes ridding its territory of "crusaders" and "apostates," including anyone from Sunni Afghan recruits to Shi'a Muslims. IS-K has called for lone-wolf attacks in the West and has released videos celebrating and encouraging such attacks.

IS-K's leadership has been targeted by U.S. airstrikes, and the group has faced ongoing assaults from U.S. forces, the Afghan government, and the Taliban. It has experienced a decline in activities and funding in recent years, with Taliban raids taking a heavy toll. However, IS-K has adapted by transitioning to a fully underground system of mobile bases, training camps, and small cells. The group's potential for resurgence will depend on various factors, including fundraising opportunities, the Taliban's counter-terrorism efforts, and the possibility of defections from other jihadist groups.

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